If Rand doesn't win Iowa or NH, is his campaign over?

I think we have a better chance this year then in last time around for his dad. I think we can only hope he wins this argument today. This is going to be the argument he should win regardless of what happens because the American people are on his side. A lot of it is going to come down to the new media though. Perception is everything and we need to show Rand and everyone that is watching that we stand with him.
 
TaftFan said:
Any math people want to run the odds on him winning both? I have to say the odds are very, very low.

I think he can win one and still have a realistic chance. I think winning both would make him the favorite.
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He's 10-1 against to win the nomination. Iowa and NH are good states for him so his likelihood of winning one them is much higher.

If you say he is 4-1 against in both Iowa and NH right now, that would mean he has about a 4% chance of winning both states. If he wins Iowa that makes winning NH more likely and vice versa so 4-1 is probably a good approximation for NH.
 
TaftFan said:
Any math people want to run the odds on him winning both? I have to say the odds are very, very low.

I think he can win one and still have a realistic chance. I think winning both would make him the favorite.
Click to expand...

Winning both would make him the odds-on favorite, regardless of the size of the remaining field...
 
Only four primaries this year before super Tuesday. And only a month between Iowa and super Tuesday this year. So I'd guess there will be less coalescence around any 'anti-establishment' candidate then last time, and there will probably be more candidates still contending into super Tuesday. I think he needs to do well in Iowa, NH, and NV in order to have a shot at pulling some states during super Tuesday, but it is a completely psychological thing and not a delegate thing.
 
He needs to get out of the gate fast starting from Iowa. The key is to have an organization to make sure all votes are counted properly. How much effort would be needed to put 2-3 people in a each polling place and give them access from their mobile phones to post the results to a web site where we could tally votes independently ? I do not want to hear any whining about the establishment screwing us again.
 
timosman said:
Maybe he should start attacking Hillary ? What the heck is he waiting for ? This would establish him as an alpha dog among pu**y footed GOP candidates. The money problem is easy to solve. I am sure one of his staffers could go on a speaking tour for 500k/hour or open a foundation where foreign leaders could donate to the future president. Works really well for Hillary.
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Where have you been? Rand has been attacking Hillary for years now.
 
Krugminator2 said:
He's 10-1 against to win the nomination. Iowa and NH are good states for him so his likelihood of winning one them is much higher.

If you say he is 4-1 against in both Iowa and NH right now, that would mean he has about a 4% chance of winning both states. If he wins Iowa that makes winning NH more likely and vice versa so 4-1 is probably a good approximation for NH.
Click to expand...
I am not Einstein but how did you get 4%?
 
Bastiat's The Law said:
Ron lost because he didn't win Iowa. Ron needed to win to establish credibility.
Click to expand...

Well, he did technically win, but I know what you're saying. I think Rand has changed positions enough where he doesn't have the same hurdles as Ron. I don't think Rand's positions can be twisted so much, and I don't think they differ from mainstream so far, that he will lack the 'real chance' that Ron didn't end up having (I completely thought Ron was going to win, and was heartbroken when he didn't, but lets be honest). i.e. I can see republicans voting for him without 'waking up'.
 
Krugminator2 said:
He's 10-1 against to win the nomination. Iowa and NH are good states for him so his likelihood of winning one them is much higher.

If you say he is 4-1 against in both Iowa and NH right now, that would mean he has about a 4% chance of winning both states. If he wins Iowa that makes winning NH more likely and vice versa so 4-1 is probably a good approximation for NH.
Click to expand...

Ladbroke's has him at 8-1, behind Bush, Rubio and Walker...

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/P...nPolitics/US-Presidential-Election-t110000608
 
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