If Mitt Romney Challenges Jeb Bush, Rand Paul Stands to Gain

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If Mitt Romney Challenges Jeb Bush, Rand Paul Stands to Gain
By Nate Cohn - Jan. 12, 2015

It is still not a sure thing that Mitt Romney will run for president. No losing nominee has done so in decades. But it now seems more likely. The Washington Post reported on Monday that he was reassembling his campaign apparatus, and even told one Republican he “almost certainly will run.”
...
But even if Mr. Romney couldn’t attract enough support to win the nomination, he would complicate Mr. Bush’s path to the nomination. He could even provide an unlikely assist to Rand Paul.
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Mr. Romney could win New Hampshire if he proves to be a strong candidate. If that happens, the effect on Mr. Bush’s chances is obvious. Without New Hampshire, Mr. Bush is likely to go 0 for 2 in the first two contests. Winning the nomination despite losing both Iowa and New Hampshire is not impossible, of course, but it would be hard.

Even if Mr. Romney doesn’t carry the state, he could win enough votes to deny Mr. Bush a victory there — perhaps handing the state to Rand Paul. Ron Paul, Mr. Paul’s father, won 23 percent of the vote in New Hampshire in 2012; even modest additional gains could allow the younger Mr. Paul to triumph over a divided field.
...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/u...lenges-jeb-bush-rand-paul-stands-to-gain.html
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NY Times: If Mitt Romney Challenges Jeb Bush, Rand Paul Stands to Gain

By NATE COHN
JANUARY 12, 2015
It is still not a sure thing that Mitt Romney will run for president. No losing nominee has done so in decades. But it now seems more likely. The Washington Post reported on Monday that he was reassembling his campaign apparatus, and even told one Republican he “almost certainly will run.”

If he does, he certainly won’t be assured of the nomination. Republicans will probably have more attractive alternatives in 2016 than they did four years earlier.

But Mr. Romney would be a central player in the nomination contest. He would enter with a modest base of pre-existing support (some polls show him with a nominal if underwhelming lead) and extremely high name

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/1...-rand-paul-stands-to-gain.html?_r=0&referrer=
 
just a little warning to those "establishment Romney donors"? :)

Regardless, I wonder if this is really true, there have to be quite a few potential Rand voters who will vote for Romney instead if he runs (especially in NH)
 
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randomname said:
just a little warning to those "establishment Romney donors"? :)

Regardless, I wonder if this is really true, there have to be quite a few potential Rand voters who will vote for Romney instead if he runs (especially in NH)
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I highly doubt that. Rand will take out Romney in NH...as long as the ads are slick and he campaigns hard! we can win NH!!
 
Rand would run better against Bush than Romney in NH, but I still think he can win it.

NH aside, a Romney run would be great for us, split the establishment vote.
 
presence said:
u trollin?
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Don't get me wrong, I don't think Mittens will go in full bore, but he may enter a few debates and do some early campaigning to try to possibly help engineer some agenda or outcome. We don't know what Rand got out of the whole 2012 ordeal.
 
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anaconda said:
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Mittens will go in full bore, but he may enter a few debates and do some early campaigning to try to engineer some agenda or outcome. We don't know what Rand got out of the whole 2012 ordeal.
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A speech at the RNC is one thing he got. But yes, in my back-room-deal-under-the-table thoughts regarding the Romney/Ron Paul 2012 campaign deal, I have considered it. But then I realized this was Mitt Romney, and he has no record to run on, and his words mean nothing. Even in deals. It's a real shame Jesse Benton and staff thought they could believe a repeat flipflopping liar, and became some themselves in the process.

If anything, Romney may run to help "forever destroy" Rand's chances, and deliver on the threat his campaign delivered against Ron in 2012 since he lost against President Obama.
 
jjdoyle said:
A speech at the RNC is one thing he got. But yes, in my back-room-deal-under-the-table thoughts regarding the Romney/Ron Paul 2012 campaign deal, I have considered it. But then I realized this was Mitt Romney, and he has no record to run on, and his words mean nothing. Even in deals. It's a real shame Jesse Benton and staff thought they could believe a repeat flipflopping liar, and became some themselves in the process.

If anything, Romney may run to help "forever destroy" Rand's chances, and deliver on the threat his campaign delivered against Ron in 2012 since he lost against President Obama.
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I agree with everything you say. Yet, I don't think Rand would have been stupid, gullible, or intimidated in his negotiations with Mittens. We don't know where Ron figured in, if at all, but it's pretty clear that Ron's advertising strategy helped Mittens, if only by default, as Ron was trying to be the best "anti-Romney" candidate and directed his fight away from Mittens and toward others.
 
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"[Romney] also feels, says one supporter who has spoken with him recently, that he would be crazy to pass up a chance to challenge a “beatable candidate” like Hillary Clinton and let someone like Sen. Rand Paul have a shot at it."

Why Romney Wants To Run - Slate
 
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anaconda said:
I agree with everything you say. Yet, I don't think Rand would have been stupid, gullible, or intimidated in his negotiations with Mittens. We don't know where Ron figured in, if at all, but it's pretty clear that Ron's advertising strategy helped Mittens, if only by default, as Ron was trying to be the best "anti-Romney" candidate and directed his fight away from Mittens and toward others.
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Not even by default, but by apparent agreement. Ron Paul 2012 agreed to not attack Mitt Romney no later than February 2012. This we know. It made absolutely no sense at all, in any political strategist's book, to attack Rick Santorum in Michigan. That only benefited one candidate in that state, Mitt Romney.

From what I can tell, Rand and Jesse were working hand-in-hand on the back-room-deal (based on some of what Rand was saying at the time, and his endorsement of Mitt Romney BEFORE THE CONVENTION, and Ron Paul 2012 being used to try and defend RAND'S endorsement of Mitt Romney). And, I would almost guarantee Rand has seen the attack ad templates made by Romney's campaign, which is why he has since started pandering on very key issues and introducing bills with dumb names simply for political ad purposes.

But I do think making any sort of deal with Mitt Romney's campaign was clearly stupid, and definitely gullible. ESPECIALLY if Mitt Romney runs in 2016. AND it was out of intimidation supposedly, for protecting Ron Paul's "legacy" or "name".
 
jjdoyle said:
Not even by default, but by apparent agreement. Ron Paul 2012 agreed to not attack Mitt Romney no later than February 2012. This we know. It made absolutely no sense at all, in any political strategist's book, to attack Rick Santorum in Michigan. That only benefited one candidate in that state, Mitt Romney.

From what I can tell, Rand and Jesse were working hand-in-hand on the back-room-deal (based on some of what Rand was saying at the time, and his endorsement of Mitt Romney BEFORE THE CONVENTION, and Ron Paul 2012 being used to try and defend RAND'S endorsement of Mitt Romney). And, I would almost guarantee Rand has seen the attack ad templates made by Romney's campaign, which is why he has since started pandering on very key issues and introducing bills with dumb names simply for political ad purposes.

But I do think making any sort of deal with Mitt Romney's campaign was clearly stupid, and definitely gullible. ESPECIALLY if Mitt Romney runs in 2016. AND it was out of intimidation supposedly, for protecting Ron Paul's "legacy" or "name".
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How exactly was Ron Paul's name or legacy going to be irreparably damaged? He already fended off the newsletter attacks. And politically, it wouldn't make sense for Rand to give up anything on behalf of Ron anyway. Just curious. Thanks.
 
anaconda said:
How exactly was Ron Paul's name or legacy going to be irreparably damaged? He already fended off the newsletter attacks. And politically, it wouldn't make sense for Rand to give up anything on behalf of Ron anyway. Just curious. Thanks.
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According to Doug Wead, they were going to run hard hitting ads. And the ad template I saw used was very professionally done, and probably would easily tank any candidate in the southern states where evangelicals are key if it was run with a large budget.

Here's the Doug Wead clip, if you have missed it or haven't watched it in a while:
 
anaconda said:
Has anyone considered that Mittens might be running to help Rand win the primary, as payback to Rand and Ron for services rendered in 2012?
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Warlord said:
I highly doubt that. Rand will take out Romney in NH...as long as the ads are slick and he campaigns hard! we can win NH!!
Click to expand...

Not on your life.

The hidebound GOP in this state will happily fall on their sword for Mittens once again.
 
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