IBD/TIPP 5/31-6/5: Clinton 39, Trump 35, Johnson 11

[CPUd]

The IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted May 31 through June 5, 2016, surveying 908 Americans, giving it an overall margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The poll was taken by live interviewers using both land and cellphones.

The unweighted sample size for registered Republicans and Republican leaners was 421, with a margin of error +/- 4.9 percentage points. For Democrats and Democratic leaners, the sample size was 351, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points.

http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ibdtipp-Tables_June2016_Posting-1.pdf

 

[69360]

This is the third double digit poll. RCP average is now 8.5

I don't know what Gary or the LP does to get to 15% but I hope they can do it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lection_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5949.html

 

[CPUd]

The LP needs to keep getting press, and more of it to get to 15%.

 

[RJ Liberty]

The LP needs to keep getting press, and more of it to get to 15%.

Yep. But they're making progress. There's been a lot of mainstream coverage already. Gary needs to get on TYT, the Daily Show, and possibly Colbert, and pull in some disaffected Democrats who definitely won't be voting for Clinton. He'd only need a small percentage of them to reach 15%.

 

[CPUd]

In this poll he took 6 points from Clinton and 5 points from Trump, so he's getting a lot of the hardcore anti Trump/Clinton support. Some other polls out there that poll D/R/L/G candidates have Stein taking 2-3 points from Clinton.

 

[RandallFan]

Johsons wont get 3% in November.

 

[Arpmoog]

I think Johnson is a Tool but then I have a long memory enough said.

 

[RJ Liberty]

^^ Weren't you the one who was denying the reality that Gary was polling at 10% nationally, in the thread with the poll clearly showing him at 10% nationally? Ah, Yes you were. He's at 11.3% now; what will you do if he reaches the magic 15%?

 

[RJ Liberty]

This is the third double digit poll. RCP average is now 8.5

It's actually Johnson's fourth double-digit national poll, though you wouldn't know it by checking RCP.

Monmouth University had Johnson at 11% in March.

Fox News had Johnson at 10% in early May.

Morning Consult had Johnson polling at 10% in mid-May. RCP has never included this poll in its averages. Including MC would push Johnson up close to 10%.

Investor's Business Daily has Johnson polling at 11% in late May.


There are also some interesting statewide polls out, with Johnson polling at 16% in Utah, 12% in Michigan, 10% in Georgia, and 14% in New Mexico, but only 3% or 8% in North Carolina (depending on the poll), and just 6% in Florida and Virginia.

 

[RCRanger03]

It's actually Johnson's fourth double-digit national poll, though you wouldn't know it by checking RCP.

Monmouth University had Johnson at 11% in March.

Fox News had Johnson at 10% in early May.

Morning Consult had Johnson polling at 10% in mid-May. RCP has never included this poll in its averages. Including MC would push Johnson up close to 10%.

Investor's Business Daily has Johnson polling at 11% in late May.


There are also some interesting statewide polls out, with Johnson polling at 16% in Utah, 12% in Michigan, 10% in Georgia, and 14% in New Mexico, but only 3% or 8% in North Carolina (depending on the poll), and just 6% in Florida and Virginia.

The RCP average is an average of the last 4 polls by chronology, Johnson has been in 6 total

My question is... Does GJ just have to poll 15% across ANY 5 polls at ANY point in time(I think he will), or is it over the last 5 polls leading up to the debate (this is less likely than the former), Or even 5 polls at the discretion of the CPD (they would get KILLED legally if they manipulated it in this way, if GJ was over 15% otherwise)?

Here is a footnote in an FEC court ruling the matter:

CPD’s rules for participation in the debates include (1) proof of constitutional eligibility
to run for president (e.g., age, birth in the United States),(2) registration in enough states such
that the candidate could win the electoral college, and (3) a level of support of at least 15% of the
national electorate as determined by the average of five selected national public opinions polls
by a certain time. See Buchanan, 112 F. Supp. 2d at 61

 

[RJ Liberty]

The RCP average is an average of the last 4 polls by chronology, Johnson has been in 6 total

As far as I can tell, there have been 9 national polls with Johnson included:

Morning Consult (June): 10%
NBC: 9%
IBD/TIPP: 11%
Rasmussen: 8%
Morning Consult (May): 10%
Quinnipiac: 5%
Fox News: 10%
PPP: 4%
Monmouth: 11%

(There may be others, but those were the ones I've found so far). Five of the nine have him at or above 10%, with two more close to those at 8-9%, and within that 10% margin of error. And the state polls are highly interesting as well, with Johnson doing quite well in the western states and Michigan).

My question is... Does GJ just have to poll 15% across ANY 5 polls at ANY point in time(I think he will), or is it over the last 5 polls leading up to the debate (this is less likely than the former), Or even 5 polls at the discretion of the CPD (they would get KILLED legally if they manipulated it in this way, if GJ was over 15% otherwise)?

It's 5 polls at the discretion of the CPD; in 2012, they chose one poll each from CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox News, and one additional pollster.

 

[silverhandorder]

I am happy he is polling high.