I think Fiorina will be done this week, and Christie too, if he gets beat by Rubio.
Agree that Christie will probably drop after tonight. He alluded that a 6th place finish that was close, like within 0.5%, of 5th place, would be enough for him to stay in. But although he’s made a fairly impressive gain in the last week, and particularly scored a heavy blow against Rubio, it is “close but no cigar”. The financial reality is that he is out of money, and the political reality is that the upcoming states in the near term are not favorable to him. Also, by the announced criteria, he will be excluded from the next debate on 2/13.
Rationally, Fiorina should be gone, too. She is going to be excluded from the next debate and just isn’t generating traction. BUT—she is not out of money yet, so she may grimly hang on until she’s out of cash.
Carson will make the 2/13 debate based on national and SC state polling. Tonight’s results look especially dismal, though. He also should rationally be dropping based on his results and the clear downward trend, but he isn’t out of money yet. I almost feel sorry for him, because I think he has been played from the very beginning by his handlers who have been using him as a profit center. I think that Carson will hang on beyond all reason until every last dollar has been squeezed out of him leaving only an empty, dry husk.
Returning to the topic of Christie, I don’t like his positions, but he deserves a public service award for pricking the Rubio balloon. At one point I thought that Rubio despite his horrible positions was at least an adroit speaker able to nimbly pivot on a question. But now it is apparent that he really is an empty suit who has been well-trained by his handlers with a repertoire of canned responses.
Temporarily, tonight’s NH results actually make the race even more muddled.
Chances for an open convention have increased.