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How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)
giovannile07
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Wow impressive, so if California has a majority of pledged delegates does that mean most of them hold a political position already?
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Bump! BUSY boards these days!
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Bump!
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Krugerrand
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I think going into super tuesday it will probably be a 4 way race. Romney, Pau,l Gingrich and Perry will all be gathering delegates through this process. Even if Ron Paul goes into the convention with close to 900 delegates it will still be difficult to pick up delegates at the convention. I agree with the 18 states where Ron Paul can pick up a lot of delegates, but one state that I think has been under valued is South Carolina. If we win there it will do wonders for our momentum and our credibility. The establishment will go into real panic if we win there. Another State that's worth a lot of delegates is NJ, winning there would be a real boost.
Krugerrand
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I wonder what the odds will be in NJ.
It's late in the game with all 50 delegates pledged
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Edited to include Ohio and Texas primary date changes. Two really important contests for us, especially unpledged Ohio!
gerryb
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The campaign won't spend any resources there, instead focusing on the caucus staes on the same date, and California which we could win a portion of the delegates out of.
But there is a really large NYC contingent whose election is more than a month prior, maybe they will help out in north jersey, they may find phonebanking to Montana etc. to be more valueable though.
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abstrusezincate
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Without knowing the details for every state, I know that delegates are often pledged to their given candidate for only the first or a finite number of votes. What this means is that if you are a delegate, and even if you're legally bound to vote for say Romney in the first ballot, you could vote for Paul in the second or succeeding ballots, and play a key role if a brokered convention happens.
While this possibility is interesting, the best historical analogue I've seen is what happened with the Dems in 1988. When it looked like Jesse Jackson might really win, and he was leading in delegates, the heads of state came together in their party to make sure the delegates all went one direction, in support of Dukakis, and I suspect the same would happen for Romney. The other thing to consider is that even if there wasn't collusion, when it becomes obvious to the candidate they can't get the majority, or even a plurality, they usually drop. It's a reasonable thing given the presumption that if Candidate A gets 40%, Candidate B gets 35% and Candidate C gets 25%, Candidate C isn't getting elected.
And yes, B and C could cut a deal to become the ticket, but it would become an uproar, damage the party, damage what people very wrongly view as a democratic process, and cost a whole lot of money for a ton of hassle, violating also what has usually been an unspoken rule, that the top vote getter should be the guy.
All that said, knowing your state is important. Like here in PA, where delegates can do more or less whatever they want, and the voting is basically a suggestion.
While this possibility is interesting, the best historical analogue I've seen is what happened with the Dems in 1988. When it looked like Jesse Jackson might really win, and he was leading in delegates, the heads of state came together in their party to make sure the delegates all went one direction, in support of Dukakis, and I suspect the same would happen for Romney. The other thing to consider is that even if there wasn't collusion, when it becomes obvious to the candidate they can't get the majority, or even a plurality, they usually drop. It's a reasonable thing given the presumption that if Candidate A gets 40%, Candidate B gets 35% and Candidate C gets 25%, Candidate C isn't getting elected.
And yes, B and C could cut a deal to become the ticket, but it would become an uproar, damage the party, damage what people very wrongly view as a democratic process, and cost a whole lot of money for a ton of hassle, violating also what has usually been an unspoken rule, that the top vote getter should be the guy.
All that said, knowing your state is important. Like here in PA, where delegates can do more or less whatever they want, and the voting is basically a suggestion.
opinionatedfool
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- Oct 31, 2011
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Let's not forget the Island delegates. Based on the low turnout numbers, I think these would be incredibly easy to get. If we got all the delegates from these islands, that would be an additional 59 delegates.
U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus)
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates
Based on this wikipedia entry, these are the turnouts for these Islands:
U.S. Virgin Islands --- 324
American Samoa --- unknown
Guam -------------- unknown
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 115
Puerto Rico ------------- 208
People on these islands, especially Puerto Rico are disgruntled because they can't vote in the general election, but it should be pretty easy to round up a couple hundred Ron Paul supporters in these areas. One of the issues that is big in Puerto Rico is statehood and I have a feeling Ron Paul would be supportive of them becoming a state. A few ads could be run on his support of the issue, and, bingo we have 23 more delegates.
U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus)
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates
Based on this wikipedia entry, these are the turnouts for these Islands:
U.S. Virgin Islands --- 324
American Samoa --- unknown
Guam -------------- unknown
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 115
Puerto Rico ------------- 208
People on these islands, especially Puerto Rico are disgruntled because they can't vote in the general election, but it should be pretty easy to round up a couple hundred Ron Paul supporters in these areas. One of the issues that is big in Puerto Rico is statehood and I have a feeling Ron Paul would be supportive of them becoming a state. A few ads could be run on his support of the issue, and, bingo we have 23 more delegates.
TulsaRevolution
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I did a sort of cost/benefit analysis as to which states have a better bang for your buck as far as focusing effort. Of course everyone should promote everywhere, but there are some huge discrepancies in the amount of delegates each state has and its population.
Why Population to Delegate ratio? Population defines the size of the marketplace you are competing in. The price in time and money spent in organizing locally, running TV and radio ads, getting signs visible, and good old word-of-mouth. The smaller the population in relation to the reward (delegates), the higher the value for the campaign. While we are fighting for likely Republican voters, it is the number of people in the marketplace that defines the price of advertising.
Each State that has a caucus I have noted, because that adds to the potential bang for our buck as we do better in caucuses.
My next project will be studying how each particular state handles its delegates and look for potential monkey wrenches.
Total Population 315695759
Total Delegates 2288
Majority 1145
Average Population Per Delegate 137978 <- The over/under
1/03/12 Iowa Est Pop. 3062309 / Delegates 28 == 109368 +Caucus
1/10/12 New Hampshire Est Pop. 1318194 / Delegates 12 == 109849
1/21/12 South Carolina Est Pop. 4679230 / Delegates 25 == 187169
1/31/12 Florida Est Pop. 19057542 / Delegates 50 == 381150 Worst ratio in the nation by far, nearly worthless
2/04/12 Nevada Est Pop. 2723322 / Delegates 28 == 97261 +Caucus
2/04/12 Maine Est Pop. 1328188 / Delegates 24 == 55341 +Caucus/ First bargain State
2/07/12 Colorado Est Pop. 5116796 / Delegates 36 == 142133 +Caucus
2/07/12 Minnesota Est Pop. 5344861 / Delegates 40 == 133621 +Caucus
2/28/12 Arizona Est Pop. 6482505 / Delegates 29 == 223534 This one is important for momentum even if the value per delegate is bad. 3/6 is the day with biggest potential and an AZ win would help the narrative leading into it.
2/28/12 Michigan Est Pop. 9876187 / Delegates 30 == 329206 Second Worst Value
3/03/12 Washington Est Pop. 6830038 / Delegates 43 == 158838+ Caucus
3/06/12 Alaska Est Pop. 722718 / Delegates 27 == 26767 + Caucus
3/06/12 Georgia Est Pop. 9815210 / Delegates 76 == 129147 Newt may get them temporarily, but he gives them back when he fails at the convention or drops out before it.
3/06/12 Idaho Est Pop. 1584985 / Delegates 32 == 49530 + Caucus
3/06/12 Massachusetts Est Pop. 6587536 / Delegates 41 == 160671
3/06/12 North Dakota Est Pop. 683932 / Delegates 28 == 24426 + Caucus
3/06/12 Ohio Est Pop. 11544951 / Delegates 66 == 174923
3/06/12 Oklahoma Est Pop. 3791508 / Delegates 43 == 88174
3/06/12 Tennessee Est Pop. 6403353 / Delegates 58 == 110402
3/06/12 Vermont Est Pop. 626431 / Delegates 17 == 36848
3/06/12 Virginia Est Pop. 8096604 / Delegates 50 == 161932 +Only us and Romney on the ballot here
3/06/12 Wyoming Est Pop. 568158 / Delegates 29 == 19591 + Caucus
3/6 is the day we potentially shock the world. 5 complete bargain states, and a medicore one with OK.
3/10/12 Kansas Est Pop. 2871238 / Delegates 40 == 71780 + Caucus
3/10/12 US Virgin Islands Est Pop. 109750 / Delegates 9 == 12194 + Caucus
3/13/12 Alabama Est Pop. 4802740 / Delegates 50 == 96054
3/13/12 American Samoa Est Pop. 55519 / Delegates 9 == 6168 + Caucus
3/13/12 Hawaii Est Pop. 1374810 / Delegates 20 == 68740 + Caucus
3/13/12 Mississippi Est Pop. 2978512 / Delegates 40 == 74462
3/17/12 Missouri Est Pop. 6010688 / Delegates 52 == 115590 Caucus
3/18/12 Puerto Rico Est Pop. 3706690 / Delegates 23 == 161160 + Caucus
3/20/12 Illinois Est Pop. 12869257 / Delegates 69 == 186510
3/24/12 Louisianna Est Pop. 4574836 / Delegates 46 == 99452 We had a good showing here in 2008
4/03/12 Maryland Est Pop. 5828289 / Delegates 37 == 157521
4/03/12 Texas Est Pop. 25674681 / Delegates155 == 165643
4/03/12 Washington D.C. Est Pop. 617996 / Delegates 19 == 32526
4/03/12 Wisconsin Est Pop. 5711767 / Delegates 42 == 135994
4/24/12 Connecticut Est Pop. 3580709 / Delegates 28 == 127882
4/24/12 Delaware Est Pop. 907135 / Delegates 17 == 53360
4/24/12 New York Est Pop. 19465197 / Delegates 95 == 204896
4/24/12 Pennsylvania Est Pop. 12742886 / Delegates 72 == 176984
4/24/12 Rhode Island Est Pop. 1051302 / Delegates 19 == 55331
5/08/12 Indiana Est Pop. 6516922 / Delegates 46 == 141672
5/08/12 North Carolina Est Pop. 9656401 / Delegates 55 == 175570
5/08/12 West Virginia Est Pop. 1855364 / Delegates 31 == 59850
5/15/12 Nebraska Est Pop. 1842641 / Delegates 35 == 52646
5/15/12 Oregon Est Pop. 3871859 / Delegates 29 == 133512
5/22/12 Arkansas Est Pop. 2937979 / Delegates 36 == 81610
5/22/12 Kentucky Est Pop. 4369356 / Delegates 45 == 97096 + Rand makes this one less difficult
6/05/12 California Est Pop. 37691912 / Delegates172 == 219139
6/05/12 Montana Est Pop. 998199 / Delegates 26 == 38392
6/05/12 New Jersey Est Pop. 8821155 / Delegates 50 == 176423
6/05/12 New Mexico Est Pop. 2082224 / Delegates 23 == 90531
6/05/12 South Dakota Est Pop. 824082 / Delegates 28 == 29431
6/26/12 Utah Est Pop. 2817222 / Delegates 40 == 70430
TBD Guam Est Pop. 178000 / Delegates 9 == 19777 + Caucus
TBD N. Mariana Islands Est Pop. 53883 / Delegates 9 == 5987 + Caucus
While I understand the strategy is much more complex than this (as certain states bind delegates differently, some proportionate to vote, some winner take all) I found an interesting statistic. I pulled all of the States & Territories with a ratio under 100,000 into a list. A population (marketplace) of 49,154,030 is represented by 779 delegates. That 49 million is 15% of the US population, but it gets you over two thirds (68%) of the delegates needed for a majority (1145/2288).
The official campaign should target its mass market spending on those bargain states. Grassroots should be active in places like Florida, but the delegate proportionality makes it a complete lack of value for the campaign's limited financial resources (as great as they will be as we donate generously).
Why Population to Delegate ratio? Population defines the size of the marketplace you are competing in. The price in time and money spent in organizing locally, running TV and radio ads, getting signs visible, and good old word-of-mouth. The smaller the population in relation to the reward (delegates), the higher the value for the campaign. While we are fighting for likely Republican voters, it is the number of people in the marketplace that defines the price of advertising.
Each State that has a caucus I have noted, because that adds to the potential bang for our buck as we do better in caucuses.
My next project will be studying how each particular state handles its delegates and look for potential monkey wrenches.
Total Population 315695759
Total Delegates 2288
Majority 1145
Average Population Per Delegate 137978 <- The over/under
1/03/12 Iowa Est Pop. 3062309 / Delegates 28 == 109368 +Caucus
1/10/12 New Hampshire Est Pop. 1318194 / Delegates 12 == 109849
1/21/12 South Carolina Est Pop. 4679230 / Delegates 25 == 187169
1/31/12 Florida Est Pop. 19057542 / Delegates 50 == 381150 Worst ratio in the nation by far, nearly worthless
2/04/12 Nevada Est Pop. 2723322 / Delegates 28 == 97261 +Caucus
2/04/12 Maine Est Pop. 1328188 / Delegates 24 == 55341 +Caucus/ First bargain State
2/07/12 Colorado Est Pop. 5116796 / Delegates 36 == 142133 +Caucus
2/07/12 Minnesota Est Pop. 5344861 / Delegates 40 == 133621 +Caucus
2/28/12 Arizona Est Pop. 6482505 / Delegates 29 == 223534 This one is important for momentum even if the value per delegate is bad. 3/6 is the day with biggest potential and an AZ win would help the narrative leading into it.
2/28/12 Michigan Est Pop. 9876187 / Delegates 30 == 329206 Second Worst Value
3/03/12 Washington Est Pop. 6830038 / Delegates 43 == 158838+ Caucus
3/06/12 Alaska Est Pop. 722718 / Delegates 27 == 26767 + Caucus
3/06/12 Georgia Est Pop. 9815210 / Delegates 76 == 129147 Newt may get them temporarily, but he gives them back when he fails at the convention or drops out before it.
3/06/12 Idaho Est Pop. 1584985 / Delegates 32 == 49530 + Caucus
3/06/12 Massachusetts Est Pop. 6587536 / Delegates 41 == 160671
3/06/12 North Dakota Est Pop. 683932 / Delegates 28 == 24426 + Caucus
3/06/12 Ohio Est Pop. 11544951 / Delegates 66 == 174923
3/06/12 Oklahoma Est Pop. 3791508 / Delegates 43 == 88174
3/06/12 Tennessee Est Pop. 6403353 / Delegates 58 == 110402
3/06/12 Vermont Est Pop. 626431 / Delegates 17 == 36848
3/06/12 Virginia Est Pop. 8096604 / Delegates 50 == 161932 +Only us and Romney on the ballot here
3/06/12 Wyoming Est Pop. 568158 / Delegates 29 == 19591 + Caucus
3/6 is the day we potentially shock the world. 5 complete bargain states, and a medicore one with OK.
3/10/12 Kansas Est Pop. 2871238 / Delegates 40 == 71780 + Caucus
3/10/12 US Virgin Islands Est Pop. 109750 / Delegates 9 == 12194 + Caucus
3/13/12 Alabama Est Pop. 4802740 / Delegates 50 == 96054
3/13/12 American Samoa Est Pop. 55519 / Delegates 9 == 6168 + Caucus
3/13/12 Hawaii Est Pop. 1374810 / Delegates 20 == 68740 + Caucus
3/13/12 Mississippi Est Pop. 2978512 / Delegates 40 == 74462
3/17/12 Missouri Est Pop. 6010688 / Delegates 52 == 115590 Caucus
3/18/12 Puerto Rico Est Pop. 3706690 / Delegates 23 == 161160 + Caucus
3/20/12 Illinois Est Pop. 12869257 / Delegates 69 == 186510
3/24/12 Louisianna Est Pop. 4574836 / Delegates 46 == 99452 We had a good showing here in 2008
4/03/12 Maryland Est Pop. 5828289 / Delegates 37 == 157521
4/03/12 Texas Est Pop. 25674681 / Delegates155 == 165643
4/03/12 Washington D.C. Est Pop. 617996 / Delegates 19 == 32526
4/03/12 Wisconsin Est Pop. 5711767 / Delegates 42 == 135994
4/24/12 Connecticut Est Pop. 3580709 / Delegates 28 == 127882
4/24/12 Delaware Est Pop. 907135 / Delegates 17 == 53360
4/24/12 New York Est Pop. 19465197 / Delegates 95 == 204896
4/24/12 Pennsylvania Est Pop. 12742886 / Delegates 72 == 176984
4/24/12 Rhode Island Est Pop. 1051302 / Delegates 19 == 55331
5/08/12 Indiana Est Pop. 6516922 / Delegates 46 == 141672
5/08/12 North Carolina Est Pop. 9656401 / Delegates 55 == 175570
5/08/12 West Virginia Est Pop. 1855364 / Delegates 31 == 59850
5/15/12 Nebraska Est Pop. 1842641 / Delegates 35 == 52646
5/15/12 Oregon Est Pop. 3871859 / Delegates 29 == 133512
5/22/12 Arkansas Est Pop. 2937979 / Delegates 36 == 81610
5/22/12 Kentucky Est Pop. 4369356 / Delegates 45 == 97096 + Rand makes this one less difficult
6/05/12 California Est Pop. 37691912 / Delegates172 == 219139
6/05/12 Montana Est Pop. 998199 / Delegates 26 == 38392
6/05/12 New Jersey Est Pop. 8821155 / Delegates 50 == 176423
6/05/12 New Mexico Est Pop. 2082224 / Delegates 23 == 90531
6/05/12 South Dakota Est Pop. 824082 / Delegates 28 == 29431
6/26/12 Utah Est Pop. 2817222 / Delegates 40 == 70430
TBD Guam Est Pop. 178000 / Delegates 9 == 19777 + Caucus
TBD N. Mariana Islands Est Pop. 53883 / Delegates 9 == 5987 + Caucus
While I understand the strategy is much more complex than this (as certain states bind delegates differently, some proportionate to vote, some winner take all) I found an interesting statistic. I pulled all of the States & Territories with a ratio under 100,000 into a list. A population (marketplace) of 49,154,030 is represented by 779 delegates. That 49 million is 15% of the US population, but it gets you over two thirds (68%) of the delegates needed for a majority (1145/2288).
The official campaign should target its mass market spending on those bargain states. Grassroots should be active in places like Florida, but the delegate proportionality makes it a complete lack of value for the campaign's limited financial resources (as great as they will be as we donate generously).
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