How much Gold/Silver is needed post collapse?

xFiFtyOnE

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I'm trying to figure out how much of these precious metals I need for the post collapse. What do you think will happen? Will it be a speedy transition into a new currency in just a few months or will it lag for years? What will the value of an ounce of silver or gold be, what will it get you in this time? I know no one really knows with all the variables involved here, just trying to get an idea of what others are thinking. Some people will say "BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN!" but what does that really mean? Should I start selling things I don't need and max my credit card? Or just spend what I can afford weekly?
 
I'm trying to figure out how much of these precious metals I need for the post collapse. What do you think will happen? Will it be a speedy transition into a new currency in just a few months or will it lag for years? What will the value of an ounce of silver or gold be, what will it get you in this time? I know no one really knows with all the variables involved here, just trying to get an idea of what others are thinking. Some people will say "BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN!" but what does that really mean? Should I start selling things I don't need and max my credit card? Or just spend what I can afford weekly?

First of all if you are going to use leverage (credit) to buy PMs don't use your credit card as there are much better ways of going about that. You can get a margin account through a stock broker, use options, or if you have enough money (I would say at least $5,000 with a much safer amount being around $15k-20k) and are able to withstand a little more risk then trade silver futures. Understand though with leverage you have a greater amount of risk and should be ready to sell immediately if you see anything about a margin hike or other significant factor against PMs, especially with silver.

Think of it as if you are in 2006 when it was under $600 and $10 for gold and silver and telling somebody how much silver they should buy. You will have no guarantee on what the price of silver will be if we replay everything, but you know what the political climate is and what the Federal Reserve will do to try to "fix" the problem. Nothing has really changed in our approach to solving the debt problem, but now the debt is even bigger. Give advice to a hypothetical person looking into PMs in 2006 on how much he should buy and how he should go about buying it. Don't assume that it will go up in a straight line and understand that there will be certain things that will cause it to go up and down dramatically so its hard to go all in with leverage but whatever advice you would give to that 2006 person is what you should go on for yourself now.
 
I think of precious metals only in terms of its relatively stable value, but only as it relates to other commodities, and especially food and gas/energy. Ironically, these are the only two things excluded when determining "Core Inflation" - and this on the rationale that they are too volatile and subject to price swings (especially on the sticky high side, in anticipation of inflation) to act as reliable indicators.

I would never, ever advise someone to go into debt over precious metals - especially those who do it on speculation - but I cannot say that it is not a sound strategy, especially long term. However, that is only because I personally don't see PM's - especially silver - in a bubble of ANY kind. And I certainly don't see PM's crashing to any kind of low floor, even in the event of a serious deflationary depression (where prices everywhere really do eventually fall). The Fed money creation buttons will be employed long before that happens, because we really do have some goof-stupid politicians, left and right, who have no real concept of money or monetary history, and no courage to address the problem, regardless. Worse yet, we have a Fed that appears willing to print OTHER countries out of their problems, if but to delay the inevitable, and give them a "What?! We tried to HELP YOU!" cover when everything goes to shit.

In our country, when the dollar fails, it could mean hyperinflation (inflation exceeding 50% per month - Cagan 1956), or we could also go straight into an expanded version of what we have now - inflationary depression. Either way, it will ultimately end in deflationary depression. That is the problem with a strictly debt-encouraging monetary policy. When credit dries up completely, everything implodes, with everybody liquidating, nobody buying, and no money left in circulation.

My thought is that all parties in power, public and private, fear deflationary depression SO much more than hyperinflation that they WILL look to the obvious and seemingly easiest path of least pain and resistance, just as they are now. They WILL try to print us out of our problem first, and when that happens, PM's will skyrocket along with everything else (but PM's especially, which COULD enter a bubble given the sudden flight to them as a monetary haven).

Even if you had no source of income, a very small liquidation of your PM's (PHYSICAL ONLY - screw the derivatives) would probably be more than sufficient to service the debt - especially if you had a low interest rate that was not subject to change, and you were able to liquidate in small amounts for cash prior to making payments. That is one of the few advantages available to the average person when a government tries to keep the monetary debt engines expanding - to destroy the currency as a strategy for dealing with mountains of debt, the interest payments alone of which can no longer be serviced. There will come a time, I think, after all the paper derivatives have self-destructed, that PM's will find a real quasi-stable level of their own - neither an infinite ceiling nor a destructive floor. PM's will not be available at ANY price, but that does not mean that they will be infinitely expensive either, because so few will have money to buy them with anyway, even if they could.

The real question in my mind, is if you had no source of income (which is the net effect if nobody will accept dollars, or anything but a mountain of dollars, in the case of hyperinflation) -- how much real "hard" savings would you need to survive? The question of how long, and what transition times are involved is anybody's guess. It partly depends on whether or not we have a sound currency as an alternative, or whether all the poop-stupid collectivist money-poolers will seek to quadruple down on their wonderful fiat money experiments and take it global, resetting the inflationary clock with a final Super-Dooper counterfeiter of first resort.

People talk about the inefficiency of barter, but hyperinflation is effectively a form of bartering, as everyone will seek to make up for a lack of valuable currency supply by liquidating hard assets (for pennies on the hyperinflated currency) in order to survive. Which brings me to the following, which was mentioned above:

PM's are not the only thing to become unavailable at any price. Hyperinflation automatically leads to shortages, including food and energy shortages, as people are unwilling to sell at a loss, and knowing that they can get more if they just wait. Likewise, knowing that prices are going to rapidly rise can produce a run on food, energy, and other survival essentials. People will not be secure enough to be content to get what they need in the moment, and it can reach a point where price does not matter, because it is simply not available.

SO...you can look to durable consumables, well in advance - especially those with long shelf lives, like vacuum sealed coffee, rice, beans, canned goods, etc.,. Those are "investments" you can make now - things you WOULD try to buy with inflated dollars shortly down the road, and PM's further down the road. They are things you are going to need regardless, and you can buffer yourself long before any "runs", where people try to panic-hoard all at once. As of now, it's not hoarding, but part of the buying and consumption that is fully encouraged by every pointy-head in the biz.

AND...if you are patient, shop the sales in large quantities. For example, if Folgers goes on sale as a loss leader for $6, I will buy 100 at a time - it's just like buying silver on a huge dip. Your durable consumable commodities could technically outperform your precious metals - but no doubt can serve as a compliment to them, given you won't have to deplete them later on to trade for consumables that aren't available by any other means, and are therefore outlandishly overpriced, even when traded for precious metals, by those who can supply them.

My advice to all my friends: If you can get a three to six month supply of money and food/water (and hopefully energy, if you have a way of storing it) you will have a lot of peace of mind, as well as a much clearer head in ANY emergency - even if it is just personal.

EDIT: I note that you said "post-collapse" in your title. All the more reason to avoid futures and other paper derivatives like the worthless paper they will ultimately become. Post collapse means a massive liquidation implosion which all but assures a COMPLETE self-destruction of all paper derivatives, and a final run on physical until NONE is available. At any fiat currency price. Post-collapse is where the adage "if you don't possess the physical, you don't own it" definitely comes into play.
 
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None.

If you have appropriate skills and live in the right place.

I agree. The gold and silver can be conviscated, taxed to death or worse.
It's much better to buy what you need now, while the money is worth something: cotton goods, food, clothing, alcohol, barter goods, guns, bullets
I'd rather have the goods than gold/silver that I wouldn't be able to get rid of, or just like money -- can become worthless.
 
I agree. The gold and silver can be conviscated, taxed to death or worse.
It's much better to buy what you need now, while the money is worth something: cotton goods, food, clothing, alcohol, barter goods, guns, bullets
I'd rather have the goods than gold/silver that I wouldn't be able to get rid of, or just like money -- can become worthless.

Don't forget Non-GMO heirloom seeds. I think they will eventually be worth their weight in gold, so to speak.
 
OK, well I'm allready hoarding nonperishable foods, along with PMs. In the event they try to confiscate peoples PMs, they won't find much here. I'll go bury it in the woods somewhere. And I only buy physical btw. I know better than dealing in paper :P
 
OK, well I'm allready hoarding nonperishable foods, along with PMs.

RE: "hoarding". I would not use that word to describe what you are doing. I think of hoarding as what people do in a panic with actual survival resources (like food) that really are, suddenly, naturally scarce. What you are doing is SAVING, storing, not hoarding.

When a grain crop yields a bountiful harvest, and you store it for leaner times, you are not "hoarding". On the other hand, a trucker's strike in the '70's caused supermarket shelves to empty in a matter of a couple of days. The man I saw on the news who had rushed into a supermarket after the strike was announced and tried to buy ALL the bread on the shelves might rightly be called a "hoarder".

I am writing a paper that attacks the misuse of that word, especially by ideologues, in pernicious, intellectually dishonest ways - beginning with Roosevelt. It is the one word Roosevelt used in his first Fireside Chat that makes me want to launch myself back into time and literally stab his eyes out with his cigarette holder, and plunge his disgusting face through a brick wall, and into total oblivion.

Those who so-called "hoarded" gold in Roosevelt's time had ZERO reason to believe that a large portion of what was theirs, or at least what they really did have a rightful claim to, had already been stolen from them long before Roosevelt made that theft official. Referring to them as hoarders - including those who saved their gold and refused to spend it (as...is...their...right) was nothing short of an act of treason on the part of Roosevelt in my mind.
 
RE: "hoarding". I would not use that word to describe what you are doing. I think of hoarding as what people do in a panic with actual survival resources (like food) that really are, suddenly, naturally scarce. What you are doing is SAVING, storing, not hoarding.

When a grain crop yields a bountiful harvest, and you store it for leaner times, you are not "hoarding". On the other hand, a trucker's strike in the '70's caused supermarket shelves to empty in a matter of a couple of days. The man I saw on the news who had rushed into a supermarket after the strike was announced and tried to buy ALL the bread on the shelves might rightly be called a "hoarder".

I am writing a paper that attacks the misuse of that word, especially by ideologues, in pernicious, intellectually dishonest ways - beginning with Roosevelt. It is the one word Roosevelt used in his first Fireside Chat that makes me want to launch myself back into time and literally stab his eyes out with his cigarette holder, and plunge his disgusting face through a brick wall, and into total oblivion.

Those who so-called "hoarded" gold in Roosevelt's time had ZERO reason to believe that a large portion of what was theirs, or at least what they really did have a rightful claim to, had already been stolen from them long before Roosevelt made that theft official. Referring to them as hoarders - including those who saved their gold and refused to spend it (as...is...their...right) was nothing short of an act of treason on the part of Roosevelt in my mind.

Well said. I've been stocking up on semi-non-perishables for quite a while now, for both bad economic and emergency (or both) situations. The only time I might come close to "hoarding" is when I buy something I won't use, because it's close to free or part of some special deal. I give those things away to family or charity. At this point, the deals at supermarkets are still pretty good, so it's worthwhile.

With everything still being plentiful, it's not me keeping anything from anyone else (like the bread guy), it's me buying and stimulating the industries that produce those things (I do try to buy American.) Those items will be replaced at the supermarket, in a true hoard situation, those items may not be for quite a while.

I do get the idea that you're not very fond of Roosevelt though...can't imagine why. :p

ETA: I'd like to read the article you're writing, sounds interesting.
 
Don't forget in past currency collapse situations, replacement currency (gold, silver) become very overvalued.
 
If you are seriously thinking you will be needing gold instead of money in the future, probably a good figure would be the same value of gold as the amount of cash money you need now. If you need $40,000 in cash income a year to live on, expect to have current value of $40,000 in gold for each year you expect to need to survive on. But don't borrow to buy it and don't put it on credit cards- buy what you can afford. Big bars will be much harder to exchange for things. Personally, I would not go nearly that crazy. I'm not nearly that pessimistic.
 
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RE: "hoarding". I would not use that word to describe what you are doing. I think of hoarding as what people do in a panic with actual survival resources (like food) that really are, suddenly, naturally scarce. What you are doing is SAVING, storing, not hoarding.

When a grain crop yields a bountiful harvest, and you store it for leaner times, you are not "hoarding". On the other hand, a trucker's strike in the '70's caused supermarket shelves to empty in a matter of a couple of days. The man I saw on the news who had rushed into a supermarket after the strike was announced and tried to buy ALL the bread on the shelves might rightly be called a "hoarder".

I am writing a paper that attacks the misuse of that word, especially by ideologues, in pernicious, intellectually dishonest ways - beginning with Roosevelt. It is the one word Roosevelt used in his first Fireside Chat that makes me want to launch myself back into time and literally stab his eyes out with his cigarette holder, and plunge his disgusting face through a brick wall, and into total oblivion.

Those who so-called "hoarded" gold in Roosevelt's time had ZERO reason to believe that a large portion of what was theirs, or at least what they really did have a rightful claim to, had already been stolen from them long before Roosevelt made that theft official. Referring to them as hoarders - including those who saved their gold and refused to spend it (as...is...their...right) was nothing short of an act of treason on the part of Roosevelt in my mind.

Realty shows help utilize the new definition of the word "hoarders" as very unstable people too. So if a president like Ruse-a-velt (Roosevelt) makes a speech like that again, it will make it appear that anyone who hoards things as unstable, unbalanced and mental.

Also the media loves to use the word; "cache", especially where guns are concerned. For people, whose neighbors, family and friends thought they had too many guns. You see and hear headlines like this all the time: "Mr. Smith was a arrested today for suspicion of illegal guns. Numerous weapons caches had been discovered which included small arms, munitions, and explosive devices upon searching Mr. Smith's residence..." Even though the second amendment means what it says and says what it means.

I would be really careful whom I let know I was stashing things away. The government is promoting-- "See something, say something". The snitches will be out in full force, and there will be a bounty on people like us, whom have been saving, stashing, hoarding, caching or collecting items for economic hard times or flat-out collapse.
 
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I like to look at PMs the same way I look at savings. I have a goal to save 20% of my income against retirement/rainy day. I can choose to allocate that 20% into several different storage/savings methods. I can save feddies (savings account, bonds, or stocks), goods (storable food items, firearms, ammo, canoe, barrels of gasoline), PMs, etc. I just choose the amount I can afford to save and then allocate from there. I would never go into debt to have more savings.

We pretty much have a concenus that feddies are a poor storage item.

Say I choose to spend 16% on goods. The beauty of that is almost everything I might buy will be cheaper today than it will be in the future due to inflation. A canoe might cost me $200 today, ten years from now (no collapse, just inflation) it is likely to cost something like $350. We have all seen this happen with firearms and ammo. I have ammo in my gun cabinet in .223 that has purchased eight years ago... the price tag on the box of twenty: $4.99. ;) So since I bought them when the dollar had more power, I can now NOT spend twenty dollars to buy the same box of ammo.

If you were to take Steven's advice (and it is good advice) and buy say... 1k of storable food, you may never need it BUT you should eat it for a year. You would be eating food at last year's prices and save money.

Gasoline is the same. If you can buy 500 gallons of gas, it will cost you about 2k in my area. Let's say gas goes up .75 buy next year. You will have saved almost $400 by using the purchasing power of today's dollar vs. tomorrow's dollar.
 
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