HOW MANY DELEGATES HEADING INTO TAMPA WOULD YOU CONSIDER THE MINIMUM NEEDED TO HAVE A VOIC

[goldwater's ghost]

I am hoping we have at least 400 delegates going into Tampa. I think less then 300 and we become irrelevant. 300-400 I'm not sure. But over 400 delegates and we might be able to pull this off. I think 300 gives us a voice and 400-500 we might be able to shock the world at a brokered convention

 

[JacobSzumniak]

Better Santorum than Romney winning Louisiana. Cause Santorum doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell getting anywhere with this so he just brings us more in striking range. I really don't foresee any situation where Santorum gets anywhere with all this in the end. In the end if Romney doesn't get the 1144 its going to come down to a deal with Ron Paul anyway around it. Now the question is what the deal is going to be. I think Ron is going to try to convince them straight up Obama will win again no doubt if its not him running against him. I feel in the context of a brokered convention that may sway a lot of delegates to change their vote. If not Romney is going to have to make one hell of an adjustment to his platform to be able to win over the RP supporters. We have to remember if our delegate strategy is working out on the 2nd round of voting most of the original delegate count doesn't even matter because they are now unbound. All in all I just don't foresee Santorum making any valid argument at the RNC as to why he would be able to be Obama. Also hard to imagine any Romney voters or Paul voters being swayed to vote for Santorum. Gingrich is just sticking it out to the end to trade his 300 delegates total he has for some nice position. I don't blame the guy. After seeing him get trampled in this race I almost pity the guy. So in the end I don't think the delegates matter but yes 300 -400 is what we are aiming for. The main fact will be that its a brokered convention and delegates are unbound.

 

[goldwater's ghost]

Better Santorum than Romney winning Louisiana. Cause Santorum doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell getting anywhere with this so he just brings us more in striking range. I really don't foresee any situation where Santorum gets anywhere with all this in the end. In the end if Romney doesn't get the 1144 its going to come down to a deal with Ron Paul anyway around it. Now the question is what the deal is going to be. I think Ron is going to try to convince them straight up Obama will win again no doubt if its not him running against him. I feel in the context of a brokered convention that may sway a lot of delegates to change their vote. If not Romney is going to have to make one hell of an adjustment to his platform to be able to win over the RP supporters. We have to remember if our delegate strategy is working out on the 2nd round of voting most of the original delegate count doesn't even matter because they are now unbound. All in all I just don't foresee Santorum making any valid argument at the RNC as to why he would be able to be Obama. Also hard to imagine any Romney voters or Paul voters being swayed to vote for Santorum. Gingrich is just sticking it out to the end to trade his 300 delegates total he has for some nice position. I don't blame the guy. After seeing him get trampled in this race I almost pity the guy. So in the end I don't think the delegates matter but yes 300 -400 is what we are aiming for. The main fact will be that its a brokered convention and delegates are unbound.

i'm cautiously optimistic that our delegate count will hit our goal. Should be one hell of a party at tampa lol

 

[cindy25]

number of Paul delegates is one of many factors; the number of Romney and Santorum is also a factor, as is polling data (if it shows Romney can't win) or a worsening economy (Beck predicts riots this summer, and he might be right)

 

[goldwater's ghost]

number of Paul delegates is one of many factors; the number of Romney and Santorum is also a factor, as is polling data (if it shows Romney can't win) or a worsening economy (Beck predicts riots this summer, and he might be right)

need romney at 900 or less due to superdelegates i think. the superdelegates will probably vote in unison. santorum is irrelevant in the big picture other then being able to keep mittens from wrapping it up imo

 

[BrittanySligar]

If Santorum + Gingrich > Romney, Santorum could be the nominee.

That is when we get serious concessions from Romney for our delegates. Otherwise, he risks losing.

 

[BrittanySligar]

need romney at 900 or less due to superdelegates i think. the superdelegates will probably vote in unison. santorum is irrelevant in the big picture other then being able to keep mittens from wrapping it up imo

Well, I know a superdelegate who is a Paul supporter, but is currently claiming to back Romney, in fear of risking his position in the party.

 

[Akus]

.....If not Romney is going to have to make one hell of an adjustment to his platform to be able to win over the RP supporters.........

I am sorry I know this might derail this thread but there is NOTHING, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, Mitt Romney can do to win ME PERSONALLY over. I believe nothing he says and even if he started sounding like a Ron Paul clone, I wouldn't so much as even consider voting for him.

 

[eduardo89]

Well, I know a superdelegate who is a Paul supporter, but is currently claiming to back Romney, in fear of risking his position in the party.

Why wouldn't he just stay uncommitted?

 

[goldwater's ghost]

Well, I know a superdelegate who is a Paul supporter, but is currently claiming to back Romney, in fear of risking his position in the party.

awesome

 

[PolicyReader]

I am hoping we have at least 400 delegates going into Tampa. I think less then 300 and we become irrelevant. 300-400 I'm not sure. But over 400 delegates and we might be able to pull this off. I think 300 gives us a voice and 400-500 we might be able to shock the world at a brokered convention

To some extent it's going to be a question of what you mean by "having" delegates. Are these hard pledged delegates? Are the counts including Super Delegates? Are we talking about total delegates after release? The figures shift based on parameters.
There are also the questions of 'how many uncommitted delegates are there' & 'how many delegates to the other candidates have'.
The ratios of those things will have an impact as well, so will other factors like who picked up what in CA, econ, current polling, mood on the ground in Tampa etc.

All my equivocating aside I'd personally love to see 572 or more that we know are ours going into the first ballot (they don't all have to be hard pledged just not hard pledged to someone else ). If we're able to command our weight or more of delegate votes going into the first round of balloting that's a very actionable position, especially since regardless of the margin we can expect to be gaining at least something as delegates become unbound.
So much of this is positioning and organization. Fortunately that's our strong suite and something that these very people will have been getting experience at this year.
There's quite a bit of tension among the various camps (esp at higher levels) and if Paul positions as the best alternative to their first choice (more likely to be doable among delegates than voters because of the level of investment/personal affinity for their guy) then it could get very interesting indeed.

 

[minusbear]

Well, I know a superdelegate who is a Paul supporter, but is currently claiming to back Romney, in fear of risking his position in the party.

Don't talk about fight club!

 

[opinionatedfool]

With the good news from a lot of conventions I'm thinking we'll have a decent amount more than 400. With "uncommitteds" we may have 600.

 

[bbartlog]

What does 'have a voice' mean?
Anyway, so far as negotiating position: as others have already pointed out, it has more to do with Romney's delegate position than with our own absolute number. Romney has 1000 and we have 200, we have some leverage. Romney has 1150 and we have 300, we still need a couple of bucks to buy a cup of coffee. While I'm not exactly rooting for Santorum, it does help our negotiating position if he keeps Romney down.
All that said, I don't know whether or how it is possible to extract credible commitments from Romney, even if we end up in a position to make deals in Tampa. He can promise all sorts of stuff (to try to keep us on board through November) and then more or less tell us to get bent once he's elected. After all, that's what Obama did to the antiwar and civil liberties left.

 

[Okie RP fan]

A lot.

That's why those of us on here who aren't delegates, yet, and may still become one, NEED TO BECOME A DELEGATE BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!

And I'm pretty sure by now most states have had precinct meetings and what not.

 

[Endthefednow]

I am sorry I know this might derail this thread but there is NOTHING, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, Mitt Romney can do to win ME PERSONALLY over. I believe nothing he says and even if he started sounding like a Ron Paul clone, I wouldn't so much as even consider voting for him.

This ^

 

[joshnorris14]

If Santorum + Gingrich > Romney, Santorum could be the nominee.

That is when we get serious concessions from Romney for our delegates. Otherwise, he risks losing.

Don't listen to this drivel, this isn't how the convention works.

 

[PolicyReader]

A lot.

That's why those of us on here who aren't delegates, yet, and may still become one, NEED TO BECOME A DELEGATE BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!

And I'm pretty sure by now most states have had precinct meetings and what not.

I approve this message. And if you're not a delegate and can't become one in your state, make sure you support the Paul delegates in your state. Or failing that (for example if you don't know who they are) support the campaign. In fact all of the proceeding is good advice no matter who you are

 

[digitaldean]

Ron Paul needs to have over 500 on the 2nd vote. We then just need to pull at least 322 from both Santorum and Mitt to reach 1144. As long as Newts delegates don't help Santorum reach 1144 we are good. Since I don't see much cross over between Santorum/Newt going to Mitt.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Ron Paul needs to have over 500 on the 2nd vote. We then just need to pull at least 322 from both Santorum and Mitt to reach 1144. As long as Newts delegates don't help Santorum reach 1144 we are good. Since I don't see much cross over between Santorum/Newt going to Mitt.

If everyone tries to become a delegate... for anyone... we CAN do it!