How important is South Carolina?

[LD Jackson]

How much importance does South Carolina still retain in the overall scheme of the race for the nomination? Am I the only one who thinks it is overblown?

http://www.ldjackson.net/news-politics/the-importance-of-south-carolina/

 

[PauliticsPolitics]

Well, the "next" primary is always overblown.
That's how news works.
But, I think that SC is easier for us to work than, say, FL.
So it deserves our focus.
As Ron Paul says, we'll see about Florida...
Regardless, Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, and Colarado will all be big for Paul in Feb.

 

[Elwar]

South Carolina is an unknown mainly for the other candidates.

The MSM is hoping that Santorum, Gingrich or even Perry do very well in SC so that they can bring back one of them. It will certainly hurt the lowest candidate of those three.

For Huntsman it is all about seeing if he gets a boost from NH much like Santorum going into NH.

For Ron Paul, he could probably finish anywhere and it would not be a big deal to the MSM unless he is second or first. If he falls hard then they will jump all over him.

For Romney he needs to win. A loss in SC means it is a Romney vs (SC 1st place winner). At least going into Florida.

 

[AceNZ]

I heard somewhere that the winner in SC has gone on to be the Republican nominee for something like the last 30 yrs. If true, it doesn't mean it will happen again, but it certainly sounds like the winner will have significant momentum coming out of SC.

 

[abstrusezincate]

It's extremely important. If Romney wins there, the media will stop treating this like a race and no matter how many delegates the campaign is collecting, that will make our job much harder. It would be a real sign of strength for Ron to place there, and it would show he is the alternative in an undeniable sort of way.

The campaign has claimed they are the only alternative. Finishing 4th or 5th in SC would negate that claim in many people's eyes. But if Ron pulls his 20%+ in SC and beats these others, it might just because the two man race we need.

 

[69360]

Not that important. It's 25 delegates. ME CO NV and MN where Ron should do very well are more 100 delegatges. FL and SC where he won't do well are 75. Everything is going according to plan. The big test won't come until super Tuesday.

Unlike the others, Ron has the organization and fundraising ability to go all the way with Romney and is on all the ballots unlike the pretend candidates.

 

[Meiun]

I think SC is critical. I think the campaign needs to continue adding to the number. I don't think it is necessary to win, but it is necessary to garner 25%+ This is going to be difficult but much easier after last night's performance. I became more hopeful last night when one of the 40ish undecided SC Republicans on the CNN panel said, "No One But Paul" when asked if he'd made a decision. 7 of the 40ish moved to the RP column after the speech. We definitely have the room to grow.

 

[Brick-in-the-Wall]

This is the evangelical home base. We can win them over, we're in a good position. We NEED the evangelical vote because if we don't get them, they'll split the vote and allow Romney to win like in Iowa.

 

[Joseph]

I'v been emphasizing the importance of South Carolina for a while. I don't think the eventual republican nominee has ever lost South Carolina, certainly not in the last 40 years, but I think it's much longer it could be the last 100 years or even in the history of the Republican party. Now that doesn't set our fate in stone if we come in second.

I think Ron Paul can pull an upset and make history even if we come in second or third in South Carolina. However the perception coming out of South Carolina will be huge. There is also this odd phenomenon in Republican Primary politics that however South Carolina votes the rest of the Southern States seem to fall in line and vote that way too. Generally the Southern States seem to follow South Carolina and do what they do. So focusing on South Carolina and doing well there should be just as high a priority as Iowa or New Hampshire. However getting second or third does not means it's hopeless, just don't under value South Carolina.

 

[eqcitizen]

With the latest poll out of SC having paul at 9%, it will be an uphill battle. They like their war in SC

 

[SonofThunder]

Hopefully not very important. I live here, and I can tell you this state is run by the Military Industrial Complex and the Retirement Government-backed industry. We are merely a district of the US government, and not a proud state any more.

We also have had an immigration to this state even more destructive than illegal immigrants: retirees from the Northeast.

Romney will do well, Santorum will do well, hopefully Santorum will fall apart after SC.

 

[SonofThunder]

Well, the "next" primary is always overblown.
That's how news works.
But, I think that SC is easier for us to work than, say, FL.
So it deserves our focus.
As Ron Paul says, we'll see about Florida...
Regardless, Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, and Colarado will all be big for Paul in Feb.

This. I think this is where our money should be spent. I also think we could pull an epic upset by winning california, but I have no idea when that primary is.

 

[fisharmor]

What can be said of a state that elected Lindsey Graham??

 

[qh4dotcom]

What can be said of a state that elected Lindsey Graham??

What can be said of a state that elected Graham TWICE?

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Keep remembering that while the historical rule is the winner of IA/NH/SC is the prospective nominee (due to stacking up an unmatchable head of steam in the delegate count), the game has changed with the proportional distribution of delegates. The rules of baseball don't apply, if we're playing basketball now. SC is of diminished importance, especially for a candidate like Paul, who has pre-positioned himself as not dependent on the media's impression as to who has momentum. How did that momentum work out for Santorum in NH? Did it propel Huntsman to victory or 2nd? Eyes on the prize, which is delegate pick ups.

 

[K466]

Very important. I will be disappointed if we don't get 3rd place at minimum. We have 10 days to do this, and more momentum than ever!

 

[fmarz1]

Very important. I will be disappointed if we don't get 3rd place at minimum. We have 10 days to do this, and more momentum than ever!

Your right....we must have a strong showing....alot of people are looking at SC to make their desicion.

 

[rezster]

A good showing in SC is important. I think a 4th place finish and no delegates is realistic.

Unfortunately, RP's performance in the SC primary was dismal in 2008. Picking up support during this election cycle will be difficult. Talking about being "DANGEROUS" to the status quo and his supporters yelling "REVOLUTION"..."REVOLUTION"..."REVOLUTION" is a major turnoff to the 60+ year old voters. Remember that this is the largest voting demographic and the one RP did extremely poor with in 2008.

My prediction:

1. Romney 35% 20 delegates
2. Gingrich 30% 5 delegates
3. Santorum 15% 0 delegates
4. Paul 10% 0 delegates
5. Perry 8% 0 delegates
6. Huntsman 2% 0 delegates

 

[Kevin Smyth]

A good showing in SC is important. I think a 4th place finish and no delegates is realistic.

Unfortunately, RP's performance in the SC primary was dismal in 2008. Picking up support during this election cycle will be difficult. Talking about being "DANGEROUS" to the status quo and his supporters yelling "REVOLUTION"..."REVOLUTION"..."REVOLUTION" is a major turnoff to the 60+ year old voters. Remember that this is the largest voting demographic and the one RP did extremely poor with in 2008.

My prediction:

1. Romney 35% 20 delegates
2. Gingrich 30% 5 delegates
3. Santorum 15% 0 delegates
4. Paul 10% 0 delegates
5. Perry 8% 0 delegates
6. Huntsman 2% 0 delegates

I disagree, Paul won't get 4th, this race isn't big enough for Gingrich and Santorum, one of them is going to collapse thus Paul will never be lower than third.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

Critical. Fortunately, expectations are quite low, so it should be a little easier to exceed them. I think a finish at least as good as Iowa is going to have to happen. It isn't about delegates, it is about momentum. If we don't break 20% minimum and/or a close third or better, and especially if Romney is 1st, I don't see a viable path to the nomination. If that happens, I will be focusing my efforts on 2016.