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You've asked for a research paperI don't write those anymore. All I can offer are my thoughts.


Good point, there would seem to be some general weakening here. But which groups? GOP party leaders? Some of the top elected officials? But what would prevent the next wave of establishment types, now being groomed, waiting in the wings, to step up vs. a better flavor to take the helm?Part 1: How will harm be done?
We've seen many establishment figures declare that if trump is the nominee, they will leave the party and maybe even vote hillary clinton. This exposes and weakens the neo-conservatives that have done unquantifiable damage to this country.
Many establishment figures use their fundraising ability to influence the candidate, as well as legislation priorities for the new administration. I don't view Trump as beholden to these figures, this weakens their overall influence.
Good points, but how long of an effect would this be? Would the money mostly be back in 4-8 years? The Dems don't make for a good long term plan for them. Even with bridges bring burned, won't the GOP be happy to take them back along with their money?Part 2: Value of the fight?
The scorched earth tactics of the NeverTrump movement is burning bridges. Even after Trump is the nominee, there's no way for many of these figures to save face and do a 180 turn to support Trump. They will go even further off the deep end, supporting democrats if they think it will benefit them and their influence. Many are offended that their donations won't buy them influence with Trump.
Agreed, so Trump would have some upper hand over them. The question would become, how would he use it? And at that point, wouldn't the GOP establishment then just be #2 in the power pecking order for team red?Is a truce / reconciliation possible? Sure, but once Trump has the upper hand, he will certainly use it to his advantage for his benefit, not theirs.
Good points; the platform would certainly move some trends the opposite direction of the establishment (in general), so there would be some who would take an economic hit. Certain reforms could also deregulate some power which would make it harder to manipulate the systems. Mostly this hits the GOP money men, which weakens GOP funding - but would it be enough to really make a difference? Could anyone argue this is smashing the GOP establishment?Part 3: Platform considerations
From a platform perspective I see three key issues: Tax reform, trade reform, immigration reform. I'm not exactly sure how progress on these issues hurt the establishment. But one thing is for sure, the status quo benefits the establishment. They don't want significant tax reform, trade reform, or immigration reform. They are happy the way things are.
The long term issue is important again here, why could these reforms not get trended the other way in 20 years?
Excellent point, to which I agree. I've been musing this is likely the most valued thing we have seen this cycle. This is an area where we can seek common ground with people new to the process; our message can be simple, "this is what happened to us in 2008/2012; let's join forces to change the system."Part 4: Long term effect
Neo-conservatives leaving the party is a good start. Trump's recent comments on a rigged election system is encouraging. Voter disenfranchisement is a thing. Many of us were apathetic about the system before learning about Ron Paul, and we got our hopes and dreams absolutely crushed. Educating more people about the rigged system could lead to some changes. We need a lot more participation in elections, I truly believe there are enough people to get Ron Paul elected, just apathy is too perverse because the system is viewed as too corrupt and rigged.
Good point, the question would become, after the election, would it still be popular to fight the establishment? After a deal with the GOP, could he redirect his supporters to some other issue?Part 5: Convictions
Trump has a deep conviction for RATINGS! He wants to do what is popular. Fighting the establishment is popular because it gets him a lot of voters, new voters coming in to support him.
Agreed, and there could be some fallout from this - but how much? and would it change the course of the country? There has to be a lot of follow though on this. Will it happen?Other than that he does communicate a deep love and appreciation for this country. And he has watched as decades of bad policy has squandered the wealth and diminished the standing of the country. He lays the blame on democrats and republicans.
Agreed. I see there being many shades of gray between "Only Trump" and "Never Trump". For many, they aren't going to get in Trumps way of attacking the status quo, but they aren't going to put their name down as a supporter either due to all the other issues.I don't believe he has strong convictions for fighting the establishment or helping others fight the establishment. But you got to get your punches in when you can. Who else this election has any chance of disrupting the status quo??
Thanks for the excellent response, even if it wasn't a research paper.
