Hmmmm Twitter says Ron Paul 2nd...

[ShaneEnochs]

The most important thing here is to NOT set yourself up for a letdown. Let's be happy with third, and anything above that is amazing.

 

[Eric39]

Just a question.

Are all of the beforehand polls allowed to, or do they, poll military?

If these polls dont account for all of the service members we could have an unseen backbone. Just speculation

 

[bobburn]

Yes, they poll the military as well--as long as they are likely GOP voters.

 

[Shellshock1918]

Don't listen to the pundits. This election has not been settled and won't be after South Carolina.

Keep this in mind. The Republican party has nominated a veteran every single time since Eishenhower. Paul is the only veteran on the stage. The results of this nomination process are not set it stone.

 

[Sublyminal]

So, what is the probability that if the rain keeps up, that Ron Paul wins SC? Although, we all know how the media would react to that. He only won because of the rain bleh blah bleh.

 

[tuggy24g]

I think the last debate was a huge boost for us! A lot of people saw that Ron Paul is squeeky clean and there is no baggage on him. Santorum seems like the only way he can win votes is by trying to slander the other for something and see if he can make people vote for him since they did not vote this way or did that in office. It has not been working. I think if we can get top 3 that might make it super hard for Santorum to say in the race. That will show that people are sick of him and it can be a three man race. I just pry we can win atleast 3rd tonight. I think we can and we will show people that the Revolution is alive and is going to bring down the establishment!!!

 

[NoPants]

So, what is the probability that if the rain keeps up, that Ron Paul wins SC? Although, we all know how the media would react to that. He only won because of the rain bleh blah bleh.

The probability is around 1%. There is almost no chance of 1st. We're in a strong position for 3rd and the rain will suppress turnout for everyone, including Ron Paul. Bad weather will votes universally, especially with weak support from Independents and Democrats. It will likely make the overall turnout lower but not dramatically and it will impact everyone' soft support.

 

[EndTheFed]

The probability is around 1%. There is almost no chance of 1st. We're in a strong position for 3rd and the rain is not likely to suppress turnout for everyone but Ron Paul. Bad weather will still lower his votes as well, especially for weak support from Independents and Democrats. It will likely make the overall turnout lower but not dramatically and it will impact everyone' soft support.

Dang... Put your pants on.... and stop "dampening" my spirits .... hehe

 

[Shane Harris]

i will be happy with 3rd, realistically

 

[Eleutheros]

The most important thing here is to NOT set yourself up for a letdown. Let's be happy with third, and anything above that is amazing.

My rating of possible outcomes:

Along the lines of what RCP is polling Paul at now: Ideal
If Paul finishes last: Disappointing but not surprising
If Paul finishes third: Good
If Paul finishes third w/>20% of the vote: Great
If Paul finishes w/a strong third or second & >20% of the vote: Outstanding
If Paul finishes w/a close second or and unexpected win, in the words of Gunnery Sgt. Hartman: OUT*******STANDING!!!

 

[trey4sports]

god dammit i wish people would stop posting that YT video, it is clearly fake.

 

[NoPants]

It should be noted that their NH and IA results were fairly accurate... (aside from Santorum in IA)

In New Hampshire they had Romney at 39% and Ron at 19%... we outperformed them, and they pegged Romney.

So there could be some validity to this. I was skeptical until I saw their previous polls.

Those estimates for NH pretty good. With the exception of Perry, they were ± 3%, that's not bad and kind of amazing for using Twitter as the source.

http://mashable.com/2012/01/10/twitter-primary/

Candidate
Twitter Estimate (actual NH result)

Romney
39% (39.3%)

Paul
19% (22.9%)

Huntsman
16% (16.9%)

Gingrich
8% (9.4%)

Santorum
12% (9.4%)

Perry
6% (0.7%)