Here's What I BELIEVE The Campaign Is Doing....

[eleganz]

Don't forget, for ever dollar RP throws at Romney, he'll throw $2-5 back.

Just in case we can't keep up with Romney and fall behind a little, we're getting California ready to be a RP stronghold.



go here for details on tomorrows meeting in Los Angeles

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...N-CALIFORNIA-for-Ron-Paul-LA-Liberty-HQ/page2

 

[Agorism]

No negative Romney ads means we forfeit NH.


Here are the 538 odds.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Here are the Intrade NH odds.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90930

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
96.0%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
1.7%
CHANCE Predict

Jon Huntsman to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
1.1%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
0.8%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
0.5%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Perry to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
0.1%
CHANCE

 

[jersdream]

Actually Romney leads by 11 because he has a lot of super delegate support, we have none thus far out of those who are pledged.

 

[Martin Silenus]

Actually Romney leads by 11 because he has a lot of super delegate support, we have none thus far out of those who are pledged.

The Republicans don't have superdelegates.

 

[Diurdi]

Here's a theory. It's crazy but I'll say it anyway just to throw it out there.

If there's a quid pro quo for not attacking Romney

I agree this far. It's classic game theory, a bit like the "peace treaty" between Hitler and Stalin just before WWII. Inevitable confrontation, but it's in both's interest to stay from eachother's back.

 

[Agorism]

You know Santorum was on the Levin show a couple days ago claiming that the Romney campaign is now sharing ALL opposition research freely with other campaigns in order to help them attack each other more easily and effectively.

Maybe Romney is sharing with our ad maker whose wife works for Romney as well so this may have helped our Newt and Santorum ads.

 

[bluesc]

The Republicans don't have superdelegates.

Yes they do. Romney has some, Perry has 2, and Santorum has 1.

 

[eleganz]

Yes they do. Romney has some, Perry has 2, and Santorum has 1.

Please explain super delegates, I was reading up on this earlier doing some research and was confused.

 

[Agorism]

Santorum talks about how Romney is feeding other campaigns information for attack ads

 

[iamse7en]

I think you'll be disappointed if you expect them to go scorched earth on Romney. Ron and Rand have gone out of their way to say Mitt is more preferable to the others. This is an uphill battle where we don't have the upper hand. It's tough to know what to do. I trust Ron and the campaign though. With them to the end.

 

[tbone717]

No negative Romney ads means we forfeit NH.

Romney is practically a favorite son candidate in NH. It is nearly impossible to beat him there since Paul did not win IA and get the bounce coming out of there. A "victory" in NH would be keeping Romney under 40%, beating the 21% he got in IA, and keeping a fair amount of distance between 2nd and 3rd. Ideally if it went 38, 25, 14 we would be in excellent shape.

 

[trey4sports]

No negative Romney ads means we forfeit NH.

there is no chance of winning NH, and that's exactly why they're not attacking. They don't want to blow their material too early. If they would have won Iowa and NH was in play then they could have at least debated attacking Romney but without winning Iowa there is no reason to attack him at this time. Wait until the field has been narrowed.

 

[acptulsa]

Um, has it occurred to anyone that Romney won't get enough first round delegate votes to clinch the nomination as long as his ceiling holds? Which means we just keep the Fox Fools playing 'musical chairs' with their candidates, running like headless chickens from one to another, and then if we don't secure enough first round votes to win the nomination nobody does. At all. Because if the Fox Fools don't give one of their clowns enough delegates to secure a first round vote, no one gets it. Unless, as I say, it's us.

So, the last thing we need is for Romney's milquetoast supporters to realize at this stage that he has no chance at all and jump on another bandwagon, because they could push that bandwagon into a first round win. We're better off with them right where they are, thank you. We want a three-way tie.

Hello brokered convention. Get your butts in a position to vote for the national convention delegates from your state.

 

[harikaried]

Um, has it occurred to anyone that Romney won't get enough first round delegate votes to clinch the nomination as long as his ceiling holds?

I believe this year is the first time the GOP has proportional delegates leading up to Super Tuesday. And even including Super Tuesday, more than half of the delegates are after that date.

Doing some rough math..

~1000 up to super tuesday (1/3 - 3/6)
~1000 after super tuesday before june (3/10 - 5/22)
~300 after june (6/5 - )

 

[Lavitz]

there is no chance of winning NH, and that's exactly why they're not attacking. They don't want to blow their material too early. If they would have won Iowa and NH was in play then they could have at least debated attacking Romney but without winning Iowa there is no reason to attack him at this time. Wait until the field has been narrowed.

This is pretty much what I realized today. Without a win in Iowa, the campaign knows they don't have the momentum to eek out a win in any of the other primary states. I believe the strategy is now to play for second place in every primary through Florida (and possibly Nevada if they still don't think they can pull off a win). Thus, it benefits them more by attacking the other potential anti-Romneys and suppressing their vote counts, even if it means not peeling away Romney supporters.

As long as Ron continues getting second behind Romney and preventing anyone else from gaining momentum and money, they'll eventually be forced out of the race. If we're successful, Huntsman will drop after NH, Perry after SC, and either Gingrich or Santorum after Florida. I don't think both of them will drop because I'm sure neither is willing to concede the title of sole Anti-Romney to Ron, so at least one of them (possibly both) will stay in until Super Tuesday.

So I'm not sure whether or not the campaign ever plans on going "scorched earth" on Romney, but it's pretty clear that they're just biding their time, allowing him to win more delegates than us in the early states in the hopes that we can overtake him further down the road if we can become the anti-Romney.

 

[ryanmkeisling]

I was actually thinking this same thing about an hour ago.

Do you really think Ron Paul is going to accept a VP slot with Romney? He would need to have a sea change in political ideology for that to even be logical. Also, I will bet there aren't many Ron Paul supporters who want:

NO ONE BUT RON PAUL!!!

 

[smithtg]

a few more debates with Frothy in full Ego mode and with Perry and Romney's ceiling will fall. Somehow there will be a scandal. Ron will be there to pick up the pieces but will have to fight newt and frother head to head with a four man race on super tuesday. With Romneys fall and post super tuesday its still going to be anyone's race

Yes we need a two man race but realistically i only see huntsman and perry possibly dropping before super tuesday.

Newt may run out of money fairly soon too and we may see him go. Frothman doesnt have any but has probably gotten some (through backroom deals of course) to spend for awhile

 

[rocky]

this "plan" is doomed to fail. Here's why:

1. An early win over Romney must happen soon if the real cash is to kick in. A few more 2nd place finishes and the funding will dry up.

2. The best to establish Ron as "the anti-Romney" candidate is to actually attack Romney! Now before it's too late.

3. Newt and Perry can always be resurrected as useful 2nd place finishers in any given state. Dont assume all the neo-cons are on the verge of dropping out, and dont underestimate the power of FOX to "surge" anyone at will.

 

[bluesc]

this "plan" is doomed to fail. Here's why:

1. An early win over Romney must happen soon if the real cash is to kick in. A few more 2nd place finishes and the funding will dry up.

2. The best to establish Ron as "the anti-Romney" candidate is to actually attack Romney! Now before it's too late.

3. Newt and Perry can always be resurrected as useful 2nd place finishers in any given state. Dont assume all the neo-cons are on the verge of dropping out, and dont underestimate the power of FOX to "surge" anyone at will.

If we prove that we can win primaries over Romney, this strategy can work. Time will tell.

 

[Original_Intent]

I've been saying this for a long time, it isn't a secret plan it was a strategy that the campaign has been quite open about for a long time.