Great News from the ORC/CNN Poll - Paul leading favorability ratings

[JimInNY]

We're winning.

 

[harikaried]

Shared this image on Facebook with the comment:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?....130151923753456.18079.100002759474390&type=1

CNN's weekend poll shows Americans like the one candidate who consistently tells the truth without spin. Ron Paul is the one most favorable at 42%, the one least unfavorable at 36%, and the only one net positive with +6%. (Compared to Gingrich at 25%/63%/-38%!) http://www.NoOneButPaul.com/

 

[Edward]

Ron is the most favorable Republican but still trails Obama. Weird, huh?

 

[TravisforPaul]

To bad this can't translate to votes.

Oh wait....we really like him but he's "unelectable"

 

[Liberty74]

I am at work and CNN just reported the exact opposite with Republicans. Paul dead last in their poll with 41/56. Santorum was like 73/25 or something crazy like that.

So I'm not buying this pollster started by the OP. It's not in tune with what every polling data has been showing and that is Ron Paul with 50-60% unfavorables making the ORC poll an extreme outlier.

The CNN poll reported was from Rasmussen.

The only poll that matters is the Republican side, not all voters.

 

[Matt Collins]

Poll: Ron Paul Most Favorable Republican Candidate

Poll: Ron Paul Most Favorable Republican Candidate


Most likeable candidate among key voting blocs

​

LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul is the most-liked GOP candidate according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

Paul has a net favorability of +8 compared to rivals Santorum, Romney, and Gingrich who have net favorability ratings of - 6, -20, and -38 respectively.

Notably, Congressman Paul also has the highest favorability among non-white voters, men, women, voters under 50, and independent voters compared to his GOP challengers.

“Ron Paul has a consistent record of being a true conservative and standing up to big government,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton. “Voters are looking for someone who is willing to be honest with them and it should come as no surprise that the only politician who has been speaking the truth for the past 30 years is well liked.”

The results are based on a telephone survey conducted February 10[SUP]th[/SUP] through the 13[SUP]th[/SUP] with a random sample of 1,026 American adults.

The full results of the poll can be foundhere.

This comes on the heels of aPPP pollwhich showed Ron Paul the most competitive GOP contender among independent voters.

 

[sailingaway]

Obvious poll is obvious.

 

[sailingaway]

got some local media, here: http://www.bradenton.com/2012/02/15/3876530/poll-ron-paul-most-favorable-republican.html

 

[gb13]

Obvious poll is obvious.

Pretty much.

 

[Neville]

I am at work and CNN just reported the exact opposite with Republicans. Paul dead last in their poll with 41/56. Santorum was like 73/25 or something crazy like that.

So I'm not buying this pollster started by the OP. It's not in tune with what every polling data has been showing and that is Ron Paul with 50-60% unfavorables making the ORC poll an extreme outlier.

The CNN poll reported was from Rasmussen.

The only poll that matters is the Republican side, not all voters.

First, you need to realize that the poll being discussed IS a CNN poll, in conjunction with ORC. Here is the link so you can see and "buy" it for yourself: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2c.pdf

Regarding your last comment, as a Republican, I would have to DIS-agree with you, Liberty74. If the Republicans wish to WIN this election in November, they had better choose someone who can win across the broad demographic spectrum. Gingrich is imploding, Romney is on the decline, Santorum is way up with the GOP, but not nearly as high as Paul with the broader electorate. This not only matters, it matters a great deal.

When I saw this poll, I was stunned at the GOP-vs-the-country discrepancy. (I was also stunned at how much Gingrich is disliked by everyone - I thought it was just me ) I studied it for a long time, and then wrote and emailed out this letter to every national political pundit and news reporter that I could think of and could find contact info for. It is long, but I hope you (and others, of course) find it useful.

To all, please feel free to re-post this letter if you think it worthwhile and appropriate.

==========================

Dear ________,

A new CNN/ORN poll was just released, taken February 10-13, and thus after all the primaries/caucuses held so far (except for about 10% of Maine, which counts for delegates but won't be reported by their state GOP - weird). Here is a link to the PDF report on the poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2c.pdf

Spend a few long minutes poring over this poll. I did, and I was absolutely shocked.

Over the last 3 years, we have constantly heard political news reports of Obama's (and Congress's) "Net Favorability", or the "Favorability Gap", which is the difference between the percentage of people who view the target positively versus negatively. A net 0 (zero) rating means that the view of those surveyed is exactly balanced - half likes and half dislikes. If more people view you favorably than those who view you unfavorably, that is considered good, naturally, at least in politics.

This telephone poll surveyed 1026 people, 91% of whom are registered voters and 47% of whom were Republicans. 75% of those surveyed were reached via landlines (vs. cell phones).

Based on these results, it is clear that the GOP respondents really view the GOP candidates very differently than the rest of the public views them. The biggest concern? The fact that Santorum (-6), Romney(-20), and Gingrich(-38) all have net UN-favorability gaps among the general population, and Gingrich and Romney are HUGELY net-negative among the general population. Among the general population, only Paul and Obama are net-favorable. Paul's rating is net +6, and Obama is net +8 .

But among just the GOP "half" of the respondents (478 GOP out of 1026 total), Santorum is +33 net-favorable. Then comes Paul at +17, then Romney at +14. Amazingly, even among just the GOP respondents, Gingrich is still NET-NEGATIVE at (-1). Not surprisingly, the pollsters didn't highlight Obama's rating among the GOP-only respondents, but it is still in there, buried in the demographic breakout: 7-to-1 against, or (-75) points net-negative.

Now, I don't hold with the idea of "pragmatic voting" , but the fact is that the pragmatists rule the GOP party organizations, and are a large fraction of the GOP membership. How can they (the pragmatists) ignore the fact that even though Obama is vulnerable among the general population (at 53% favorable, he's close to the only-half-liked point, within the poll's 3% margin of error, 53%-3%=50%), the only GOP candidate that is even close to Obama in favorability ratings is Ron Paul (at 45%+3% = 48%). Romney and Santorum are back down another 5% and 7%, respectively, and the general populace appears to pretty much hate Gingrich, as only 1 in 4 (25%) view him favorably. In fact, over the last 17+ years, Gingrich has managed a nationwide net-positive favorability rating only in Nov. 1994 and May 2009.

The "issues" questions show even more clearly how out of step the old-guard GOP is with the rest of the country, as they (GOP) rate Gingrich either 1st or 2nd (out of the 4 GOP candidates) on 5 of the 7 listed issues: Foreign Policy, The Economy, Federal Budget Deficit, Illegal Immigration, and Taxes (he is 3rd only on Abortion and Healthcare, and 4th not at all). By contrast, Ron Paul is rated by the GOP as 4th out of 4 in all but one issue category - Federal Budget Deficit has him 3rd behind Romney and Gingrich, who haven't proposed any real net cuts, only slower growth.

What all these numbers say to me is that on the GOP side, this had better fast become a two-person, Santorum-vs-Paul, race, or else the GOP is going to end up losing big in November. Romney and Gingrich have falling GOP favorability, and plummeting general favorability. Only Santorum and Paul are on the rise. And between those two, although Santorum comes out with a stellar net-positive favorability rating among the GOP (with Paul running second), his net is running 12 points behind Paul and 14 points behind Obama among a general cross-section of registered GOP/DEM/IND voters (the 3 of these guys leave Romney and Gingrich in the dust).

You'll note that I referred to the GOP "old-guard" being out of step. The reason I phrased it that way is that the demographic breakdown shows that the 478 GOP respondents are ALL white, ALL college-educated, ALL 50+ years old, ALL suburbanites, and ALL tea-party-neutral or supporters. This description perfectly describes the prototypical GOP "party men" and "party women". These are the same people who will preach all day long that "we must choose the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama in November", yet the numbers show that they are severely out of step with the general voting population. These people need to get their brains in gear and start thinking, or they are going to "McCain": the GOP right into the loser's column just as they did in 2008.

 

[Highstreet]

If you look at the crosstabs, you will notice that Paul is the only one winning or doing well in Dems, Liberals, Independents, and Moderates.

The only groups the other candidates carry are Repubs and Conservatives.

 

[goldpants]

Here is our wave, we must seize it now. Those on the fence regarding giving donations need to give the campaign the opportunity to play off of this favorability and in order to do so they must have the funds now. Plus, those that have been keeping their support for RP on the down low, it is time to come out from under your shell. People are more open to his message than ever before so wear your support and vocalize it.

 

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Just have a look at my signature quote bellow. How can we be so high in the polls more often than not, and yet be losing the populous vote more often than not? There are far too many factors at play between the polls and the votes. It's called "funny business".

 

[Highstreet]

First, you need to realize that the poll being discussed IS a CNN poll, in conjunction with ORC. Here is the link so you can see and "buy" it for yourself: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2c.pdf

Regarding your last comment, as a Republican, I would have to DIS-agree with you, Liberty74. If the Republicans wish to WIN this election in November, they had better choose someone who can win across the broad demographic spectrum. Gingrich is imploding, Romney is on the decline, Santorum is way up with the GOP, but not nearly as high as Paul with the broader electorate. This not only matters, it matters a great deal.
A
When I saw this poll, I was stunned at the GOP-vs-the-country discrepancy. (I was also stunned at how much Gingrich is disliked by everyone - I thought it was just me ) I studied it for a long time, and then wrote and emailed out this letter to every national political pundit and news reporter that I could think of and could find contact info for. It is long, but I hope you (and others, of course) find it useful.

To all, please feel free to re-post this letter if you think it worthwhile and appropriate.

==========================

Dear ________,

A new CNN/ORN poll was just released, taken February 10-13, and thus after all the primaries/caucuses held so far (except for about 10% of Maine, which counts for delegates but won't be reported by their state GOP - weird). Here is a link to the PDF report on the poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2c.pdf

Spend a few long minutes poring over this poll. I did, and I was absolutely shocked.

Over the last 3 years, we have constantly heard political news reports of Obama's (and Congress's) "Net Favorability", or the "Favorability Gap", which is the difference between the percentage of people who view the target positively versus negatively. A net 0 (zero) rating means that the view of those surveyed is exactly balanced - half likes and half dislikes. If more people view you favorably than those who view you unfavorably, that is considered good, naturally, at least in politics.

This telephone poll surveyed 1026 people, 91% of whom are registered voters and 47% of whom were Republicans. 75% of those surveyed were reached via landlines (vs. cell phones).

Based on these results, it is clear that the GOP respondents really view the GOP candidates very differently than the rest of the public views them. The biggest concern? The fact that Santorum (-6), Romney(-20), and Gingrich(-38) all have net UN-favorability gaps among the general population, and Gingrich and Romney are HUGELY net-negative among the general population. Among the general population, only Paul and Obama are net-favorable. Paul's rating is net +6, and Obama is net +8 .

But among just the GOP "half" of the respondents (478 GOP out of 1026 total), Santorum is +33 net-favorable. Then comes Paul at +17, then Romney at +14. Amazingly, even among just the GOP respondents, Gingrich is still NET-NEGATIVE at (-1). Not surprisingly, the pollsters didn't highlight Obama's rating among the GOP-only respondents, but it is still in there, buried in the demographic breakout: 7-to-1 against, or (-75) points net-negative.

Now, I don't hold with the idea of "pragmatic voting" , but the fact is that the pragmatists rule the GOP party organizations, and are a large fraction of the GOP membership. How can they (the pragmatists) ignore the fact that even though Obama is vulnerable among the general population (at 53% favorable, he's close to the only-half-liked point, within the poll's 3% margin of error, 53%-3%=50%), the only GOP candidate that is even close to Obama in favorability ratings is Ron Paul (at 45%+3% = 48%). Romney and Santorum are back down another 5% and 7%, respectively, and the general populace appears to pretty much hate Gingrich, as only 1 in 4 (25%) view him favorably. In fact, over the last 17+ years, Gingrich has managed a nationwide net-positive favorability rating only in Nov. 1994 and May 2009.

The "issues" questions show even more clearly how out of step the old-guard GOP is with the rest of the country, as they (GOP) rate Gingrich either 1st or 2nd (out of the 4 GOP candidates) on 5 of the 7 listed issues: Foreign Policy, The Economy, Federal Budget Deficit, Illegal Immigration, and Taxes (he is 3rd only on Abortion and Healthcare, and 4th not at all). By contrast, Ron Paul is rated by the GOP as 4th out of 4 in all but one issue category - Federal Budget Deficit has him 3rd behind Romney and Gingrich, who haven't proposed any real net cuts, only slower growth.

What all these numbers say to me is that on the GOP side, this had better fast become a two-person, Santorum-vs-Paul, race, or else the GOP is going to end up losing big in November. Romney and Gingrich have falling GOP favorability, and plummeting general favorability. Only Santorum and Paul are on the rise. And between those two, although Santorum comes out with a stellar net-positive favorability rating among the GOP (with Paul running second), his net is running 12 points behind Paul and 14 points behind Obama among a general cross-section of registered GOP/DEM/IND voters (the 3 of these guys leave Romney and Gingrich in the dust).

You'll note that I referred to the GOP "old-guard" being out of step. The reason I phrased it that way is that the demographic breakdown shows that the 478 GOP respondents are ALL white, ALL college-educated, ALL 50+ years old, ALL suburbanites, and ALL tea-party-neutral or supporters. This description perfectly describes the prototypical GOP "party men" and "party women". These are the same people who will preach all day long that "we must choose the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama in November", yet the numbers show that they are severely out of step with the general voting population. These people need to get their brains in gear and start thinking, or they are going to "McCain": the GOP right into the loser's column just as they did in 2008.

Love the letter. I was just noticing this because the article that is being run on this is NOT an article about Paul, but rather an article about how Romney is losing the independent vote.