Grain prices spike on USDA Crop Report

Cowlesy

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http://www.nebraska.tv/Global/story.asp?S=13291949

Prices for corn and soybeans at local elevators were up the limit after a USDA Crop Production Report which showed even smaller yields for corn than traders had expected.

Corn production is forecast at 12.7 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the
September forecast and down 3 percent from last year's record production of
13.1 billion bushels.
Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are
expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels from the
previous month and 8.9 bushels below last year's record of 164.7 bushels.
Forecasted yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt
and Tennessee Valley. Illinois showed the largest decline, down 14 bushels
per acre. Indiana and Iowa are both down 10 bushels from the previous month,
while Missouri and Nebraska declined 9 bushels per acre. Area harvested for
grain is forecast at 81.3 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the
September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several States based on
administrative data.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down
2 percent
from September but 1 percent above last year.
Based on September 1
conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 44.4 bushels per
acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but up 0.4 bushel from last year.
Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in all
major-producing States except Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New
York, and Wisconsin. The largest decreases in yield from last month are
expected in North Carolina and Virginia, down 5 and 4 bushels, respectively.
If realized, the forecasted yields in Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, New
York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin will be record highs and the forecasted
yield in Minnesota will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the
United States is forecast at 76.8 million acres, down 1 percent from the
previous estimate but up 1 percent from 2009. Acreage updates were made in
several States based on administrative data.


Corn and Soy Beans are limit-up (meaning they can't trade any higher today) following lackluster information from the USDA about the harvest (Beans/Corn are currently being harvested).

Here is the link to the report.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-10-08-2010.pdf
 
CNBC (Bob Pisani) covered this... not only grain, all the commodities are skyrocketing.

Here comes another economic killer, just what the Federal Reserve wants, Inflation. I see this is SPUN as a Crop report, but in reality, it's the world's RESERVE CURRENCY declining in value.

Love buying those 10-11oz bags of chips that were 16oz 5 years ago. Hebrew National Hot Dogs, 7now, not 8, WTF to a pack and skinnier than ever.

Inflation is hidden so many different ways... Americans need to wake up.

I wonder who's holding PUTS and CALLS on commodities? Betcha the Big Boys are profitting from all this.
 
CNBC (Bob Pisani) covered this... not only grain, all the commodities are skyrocketing.

Here comes another economic killer, just what the Federal Reserve wants, Inflation. I see this is SPUN as a Crop report, but in reality, it's the world's RESERVE CURRENCY declining in value.

Love buying those 10-11oz bags of chips that were 16oz 5 years ago. Hebrew National Hot Dogs, 7now, not 8, WTF to a pack and skinnier than ever.

Inflation is hidden so many different ways... Americans need to wake up.

I wonder who's holding PUTS and CALLS on commodities? Betcha the Big Boys are profitting from all this.

DBA, the Deutsche Bank Agriculture ETF (25% Corn, 25% Soy, 25% Wheat, 25% Sugar) has moved 6% today, higher the direction.
 
This is big, and expect more like this from now on.

Things are getting "interesting".
 
CNBC (Bob Pisani) covered this... not only grain, all the commodities are skyrocketing.

Here comes another economic killer, just what the Federal Reserve wants, Inflation. I see this is SPUN as a Crop report, but in reality, it's the world's RESERVE CURRENCY declining in value.

Love buying those 10-11oz bags of chips that were 16oz 5 years ago. Hebrew National Hot Dogs, 7now, not 8, WTF to a pack and skinnier than ever.

Inflation is hidden so many different ways... Americans need to wake up.

I wonder who's holding PUTS and CALLS on commodities? Betcha the Big Boys are profitting from all this.

I thought Hebrew Nationals always did 7 dogs to the pack - all the rest, I hear you. Ice cream is now being sold in 1.5 quarts instead of half gallons, it's all such transparent B.S.

ah yep - http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_are_there_7_hot_dogs_in_a_Hebrew_National_package

or...could it be...(?) a Jewish conspiracy!?!?!?!

YouTube - Father of the Bride - Hot Dogs/Hot Dog Buns
 
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what's funny about Father of the Bride....is he gets 24 buns...I assume he was going to get 24 hot dogs as well (8 pack of course). He could have just gotten 3 packs of hotdogs and 2 packs of buns and it would have come out perfectly. *chuckles*

In any event, I really wish another group did crop reports besides the USDA; they're probably end up being less shocks in prices because of how reports come out at fixed times (not to mention there's always the possibility the government fudges the numbers).

Anywho, better get some of your food stuff while ya can, sounds like.
 
I bought some of a fund that replicates Jim Roger's Agricultural index: RJA. I bought it at 8.60$. Closed the day up 7 1/2% at 9.32$ I'm thinking of holding it to around 10.50-11$, and then dumping it for somethign else. Any thoughts?

Here is the fund's holdings: http://www.elementsetn.com/pdfs/ELEMENTS-RJA.pdf
 
I bought some of a fund that replicates Jim Roger's Agricultural index: RJA. I bought it at 8.60$. Closed the day up 7 1/2% at 9.32$ I'm thinking of holding it to around 10.50-11$, and then dumping it for somethinh else. Any thoughts?

Here is the fund's holdings: http://www.elementsetn.com/pdfs/ELEMENTS-RJA.pdf


I got some RJA when it was 7.65 and was annoyed that it spent a few months between 6.80-7.00. Now I'm pretty happy with its performance, and I think I rather buy and hold more commodities than sell if it goes past $10.

If I was in the know on a single commodity surplus, I would sell, but alas, its difficult to keep track every day.

When the news of Greece's financial mess started to hit the news, I was tempted to sell my aluminum and copper etf shares, because I knew they would probably take a hit, but I kind of blew it off, and of course they fell by 10%, and I missed on a good opportunity.
 
Yeah, you can definitely lose with that one.

No offense, but the numbers speak for themselves.

QE1 and the upcoming QE2 is the best thing that can happen to investors in the soft commodities (not to mention PM investors).
 
No offense, but the numbers speak for themselves.

QE1 and the upcoming QE2 is the best thing that can happen to investors in the soft commodities (not to mention PM investors).

Leveraged, exchange-traded notes are very risky, much like their exchange-traded fund brethren. Be very careful if they're daily compounding using leverage, as a few bad days can wipe out any gains you may have gradually been building up.

DBA, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) does not use leverage, and is a lot less volatile. If you bought it up in the 2007/2008 peaks, you'd be less hurt than you would be if you bought the ETN. Also, the fees over time eat you up if you aren't making appreciable gains.
 
I dunno what kind of scheme you're trying to pull.

Scheme?

lol.

Look, buy or don't buy this ETN...who cares?

My point is simply that doubling down against Bernanke's jack-ass policies WILL NOT lose money.

Is it volatile? Yep.

Is there risk in buying into an ETN? Yep.

If you bought this ETN before the Russian fires and before Bernanke's gang hinted at further insanity during the third quarter THEN SOLD before QE2 became a buzzword then, sure, that is a recipe for capital loss.

But, when things are going right for commodities and precious metals (as they are as long as currency debasement is rule #1) leveraged funds take off like the space shuttle.

Again...the returns are there for you to see.

By the way, if you hate the double Ag ETN then your really gonna hate these returns ;):

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DGP
 
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No offense, but the numbers speak for themselves.

QE1 and the upcoming QE2 is the best thing that can happen to investors in the soft commodities (not to mention PM investors).

Do the math and you'll find that daily leveraged funds eventually go to zero. It's just how they work.

Let's say corn goes from 100 to 110 to 107 to 115 to 105 to 110

A daily double leveraged fund would go from 100 to 120 to 113.28 to 130 to 105 to 114.5 for a 14.5% return. Corn went up 10% in that amount of time, you didn't double the returns...not by a long shot.

But my example was very friendly to your argument. All in all, corn trended upward by a total of 23 points. It went down 13 points.

Corn neither went up nor down twice in a row. It is in consecutive up and down days that double leveraged funds either get hammered or surge to the upside. All leveraged funds will eventually go to zero...it's a mathematical fact.

DXO is a great example of this phenomenon (and a reason why the issuer, Powershares, shut it down). In a matter of months, crude had nearly doubled, DXO was up only modestly at like 40%, IIRC.

There are a number of documented cases where the underlying index surges over a period of months and the double leveraged long funds actually show a loss due to the daily compounding of one large loss or several consecutive small losses during the bull run. Never hold these funds for more than a few days, otherwise you're just asking to get burned, even if your call was correct.

My point is simply that doubling down against Bernanke's jack-ass policies WILL NOT lose money.

It will actually always lose money.

Take 100, subtract 10%, add 10% and you get 99.

Take 100, add 10%, subtract 10% and you get 99. Drawdown sucks. Doubling drawdown daily sucks even more.
 
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Do the math and you'll find that daily leveraged funds eventually go to zero. It's just how they work.

Let's say corn goes from 100 to 110 to 107 to 115 to 105 to 110

A daily double leveraged fund would go from 100 to 120 to 113.28 to 130 to 105 to 114.5 for a 14.5% return. Corn went up 10% in that amount of time, you didn't double the returns...not by a long shot.

But my example was very friendly to your argument. All in all, corn trended upward by a total of 23 points. It went down 13 points.

Corn neither went up nor down twice in a row. It is in consecutive up and down days that double leveraged funds either get hammered or surge to the upside. All leveraged funds will eventually go to zero...it's a mathematical fact.

DXO is a great example of this phenomenon (and a reason why the issuer, Powershares, shut it down). In a matter of months, crude had nearly doubled, DXO was up only modestly at like 40%, IIRC.

There are a number of documented cases where the underlying index surges over a period of months and the double leveraged long funds actually show a loss due to the daily compounding of one large loss or several consecutive small losses during the bull run. Never hold these funds for more than a few days, otherwise you're just asking to get burned, even if your call was correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by clb09 View Post
My point is simply that doubling down against Bernanke's jack-ass policies WILL NOT lose money.
It will actually always lose money.

Take 100, subtract 10%, add 10% and you get 99.

Take 100, add 10%, subtract 10% and you get 99. Drawdown sucks. Doubling drawdown daily sucks even more.

A) I know all about leverage decay, but thanks for the math lesson.

B) There is no law that says that you have to hold any investment until it hits zero.

C) If you buy a leveraged ETF or ETN when all signs point to macroeconomic conditions or government policy going AGAINST your thesis for buying then you aren't a very astute investor.

D) If volatility or fear of permanent capital loss keeps you awake at night, avoid funds and equities and stick to gold and silver coins or bars.

E) Once again, I don't care what you buy or don't buy... I was originally pointing out that Bernanke + leveraged bets against his policies = profit. If Bernanke announced a halt in the money printing or a shutdown of the Fed then the DAG or DGP would suddenly be a horrible investment.

F) People who bought DAG this summer probably aren't hurting because of the phenomenon of "decay". If they are fearful then they will hedge their bet or sell the ETN this week. Simple.

G) Have a nice weekend!
 
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