Swordsmyth
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- Joined
- Apr 14, 2016
- Messages
- 74,737
You may be right but I see ranked choice voting as making it possible as opposed to impossible, in our current system 3rd parties are seen as a "wasted" vote and they never get any more than about 10% which will never be enough to win.It depends on just what you mean by "can win". If you mean "can win" merely in the sense of "is it possible", then I suppose it is. But if you mean "can win" in the sense of "is it any more likely under ranked-vote schemes than under the current single-vote system", then I am skeptical. The problem occurs if people "backstop" their first choice with the Republican (just as you suggested would happen). This eliminates any "spoiler" effect and insulates the Republicans against reaction, leading them to skew more liberal. But even worse, it also makes Republicans more likely to defeat Libertarians or Conservatives even if the Republican is not able to achieve a first-rank plurality (just as the Democrat defeated the Republican in Maine even though the Democrat failed to win the first-rank plurality).
There are only two ways around this under a ranked-vote system:
(1) win an absolute majority (with at least 50% + 1 of first-rank votes), or
(2) win without "backstopping" votes with the lesser evil (else the backstop is apt to win even without a first-rank plurality).
But (1) will be even harder to do under a ranked-vote system than it already is under a single-vote system.
And (2) will also be more difficult, since under a single-vote system (where the only votes are "first rank" votes), winning a first-rank plurality is strictly sufficient to win the election, which is not the case under a ranked-vote system (as the OP article clearly demonstrates).
If the Swampublicans moved farther left because they didn't have to worry about the spoiler effect they might be replaced by a 3rd party just as they replaced the Whigs, that will never happen as long as they remain the "lesser of two evils".