GOP Rule Won’t Block Dr Paul’s Chances

Scott_in_PA

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GOP Rule Won’t Block Dr Paul’s Chances

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/gop-rule-wont-block-gingrichs-chances/


That doesn’t mean he can’t be the nominee, and it may not even complicate his chances any further than they already have been. But with Gingrich Ron Paul;) vowing to fight on until the GOP’s convention in Tampa, it bears mentioning that he could enter that convention without his name on the first ballot.

Didn't Newt just come in 4th yesterday. He still has a chance but someone effectively working the Caucus system doesn't?
They are desperate.:D
 
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/gop-rule-wont-block-gingrichs-chances/




Didn't Newt just come in 4th yesterday. He still has a chance but someone effectively working the Caucus system doesn't?
They are desperate.:D

Newt has twice as many votes as RP and many more hard delegates. But that is irrelevant to the point. IF there is a brokered convention, then it is completely open. A brokered is looking less and less likely as Romney is raking the delegates up.
 
This still hurts the chance ofa brokered convention, which are ALREADY "slim to none" to begin with. With Gingrich not on the first ballot, his delegates will have to vote for Santorum or Romney. And as I said in another thread, despite what many people here believe, not ALL of Gingrich's supporters are voting for him simply becusae they hate Romney. Most actually like Gingrich. And many actually would choose Romney as their second choice. (For whatever reason. It isn't like many voters pay all that much attention to issues.) This would also be true of his delegates.

So...at a time when every single delegate that can be kept away from Romney is critical, he would pick up a few dozen of Gingrich's delegtes. Yes..Santourm and Ron Paul Paul may get MORE of his delegates but that is not hte issue. The issue is solely Romney. And he would get at least SOME totaly "free" delegates to get him close to 1144.

Of course, this is assuming that Gingrich is still stubborn enough to stay i the race all the way to the end, which despite what he is saying, if very unlikely. His donations are going to dry up even more than they already have by April 24th's Romney favored states, if not much sooner. He simply won't have the money to finish the last 2 months. (Most likely the donations will dry up after April 3. It is highly doubtful that Gingrich stays in it to the end.

Then you just have to hope that Gingrich doesn't try to salvage something from this year by making a deal with Romney to throw his suppot behind him, which would give Romney even MORE "free" delegates
 
Newt has twice as many votes as RP and many more hard delegates. But that is irrelevant to the point. IF there is a brokered convention, then it is completely open. A brokered is looking less and less likely as Romney is raking the delegates up.
Romney is still on the same course as projected by Nate Silver before HI which wouldn't put him at confirmation until after the final state votes. If he underperformed that by 5% he'd require 2/3 of all Super & unbound delegates to avoid a brokered convention. (And those numbers assume Newt doesn't cost him anything in the various states and that none of the delegate projections thus far turn out to be overly optimistic for Willard)

I don't find "less and less likely" to be accurate in light of that.
 
Newt has twice as many votes as RP and many more hard delegates. But that is irrelevant to the point. IF there is a brokered convention, then it is completely open. A brokered is looking less and less likely as Romney is raking the delegates up.

What is your definition of a "hard delegate"? Also, what is the difference between that and a 'soft' delegate?
 
As Ron has raked up a lot of delegates, wouldn't he have a plurality of *delegates* of 5 states? Thus, should he be on the convention ballot?
 
Newt has twice as many votes as RP and many more hard delegates. But that is irrelevant to the point. IF there is a brokered convention, then it is completely open. A brokered is looking less and less likely as Romney is raking the delegates up.
Yeah, twice as many votes in Republican strongholds... Man I know the republicans are really sweating it down in Georgia [/sarcasm]...

Dr. Paul has more votes in swing states where it matters, not to mention committed delegates.
 
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Gingrich (and maybe even Santorum) may likely finally pull out of the race after about April 3, when it's winner take all primaries from there going forward. They mainly stayed in the race to prevent Paul from gaining wins and delegates in the proportional states prior to April. Had they pulled out in January when by all logic, they already knew they didn't have the money and organization to prevail against Romney, Paul would have easily racked up many caucus state victories, and strong primary state finishes (as in his 41% showing head to head against Mitt in VA). This is WWE, people, the outcomes are pre-negotiated. The job of most of the candidates all along was to run resistance for Romney, and block out Paul. The elite's plan is for Mitt to likewise lose gracefully to Obama in the fall election, to maintain continuity of government (i.e., a Bush or a Clinton in control of foreign policy) until Jeb Bush runs and can be installed in 2016.

The point is it wasn't Newt and Rick's ego that kept them in, it was the establishment pushing them to prevent Paul from gaining any traction when it was still possible to catch Mitt. The plan was originally to black out Paul altogether from the start of the race last summer, but when he came on strong at the Iowa straw vote, they had to push Bachmann, his only competition at that poll. When he kept coming on strong, they tried to get Paul sidetracked squabbling with second tier candidate Santorum in the early debates. When that didn't work, they pushed Perry and then Cain as the 'credible' alternative (only to see them crash and burn as badly as Bachmann).

Turning to Newt in desperation, the establishment found to their horror that Paul was prevailing against him as well, and led in the polls going into the Iowa caucuses. The MSM then invented the Santorum surge, much as they had picked up McCain's lackluster carcass and dragged him across the finish line to victory in the early primaries of 2008. Bachmann and Huntsman were assigned to savagely attack Paul, since they were soon bowing out anyway. Since then they've had to pad for time until April, using Santorum and newt to soak up the anti-Romney vote, and split up the conservative vote enough to protect Romney, while suppressing Paul. When all else failed, they rigged the vote or caucus process outright, including changing the rules at delegate selection time where they could. In hindsight, it has been nothing less than a full team effort to marginalize Paul and push Mitt from start to finish.
 
Gingrich (and maybe even Santorum) may likely finally pull out of the race after about April 3, when it's winner take all primaries from there going forward. They mainly stayed in the race to prevent Paul from gaining wins and delegates in the proportional states prior to April. Had they pulled out in January when by all logic, they already knew they didn't have the money and organization to prevail against Romney, Paul would have easily racked up many caucus state victories, and strong primary state finishes (as in his 41% showing head to head against Mitt in VA). This is WWE, people, the outcomes are pre-negotiated. The job of most of the candidates all along was to run resistance for Romney, and block out Paul. The elite's plan is for Mitt to likewise lose gracefully to Obama in the fall election, to maintain continuity of government (i.e., a Bush or a Clinton in control of foreign policy) until Jeb Bush runs and can be installed in 2016.

The point is it wasn't Newt and Rick's ego that kept them in, it was the establishment pushing them to prevent Paul from gaining any traction when it was still possible to catch Mitt. The plan was originally to black out Paul altogether from the start of the race last summer, but when he came on strong at the Iowa straw vote, they had to push Bachmann, his only competition at that poll. When he kept coming on strong, they tried to get Paul sidetracked squabbling with second tier candidate Santorum in the early debates. When that didn't work, they pushed Perry and then Cain as the 'credible' alternative (only to see them crash and burn as badly as Bachmann).

Turning to Newt in desperation, the establishment found to their horror that Paul was prevailing against him as well, and led in the polls going into the Iowa caucuses. The MSM then invented the Santorum surge, much as they had picked up McCain's lackluster carcass and dragged him across the finish line to victory in the early primaries of 2008. Bachmann and Huntsman were assigned to savagely attack Paul, since they were soon bowing out anyway. Since then they've had to pad for time until April, using Santorum and newt to soak up the anti-Romney vote, and split up the conservative vote enough to protect Romney, while suppressing Paul. When all else failed, they rigged the vote or caucus process outright, including changing the rules at delegate selection time where they could. In hindsight, it has been nothing less than a full team effort to marginalize Paul and push Mitt from start to finish.

There aren't that many "winner take all" primaries. May is almost all proportional.
 
Newt has twice as many votes as RP and many more hard delegates. But that is irrelevant to the point. IF there is a brokered convention, then it is completely open. A brokered is looking less and less likely as Romney is raking the delegates up.

As I predicted, Romney will get to the magic number. The delegate game is fun but it won't win us the nomination. Ron might be around 250 delegates after all said and done.
 
As I predicted, Romney will get to the magic number. The delegate game is fun but it won't win us the nomination. Ron might be around 250 delegates after all said and done.

"As I predicted, Romney will get"

huh?

You mean "I predict Romney will get" I assume.

Because it hasn't happened yet.

We have to do things to keep Romney <1144.

That's the game right now.

What can we do to keep Romney <1144?
 
Gingrich (and maybe even Santorum) may likely finally pull out of the race after about April 3, when it's winner take all primaries from there going forward. They mainly stayed in the race to prevent Paul from gaining wins and delegates in the proportional states prior to April. Had they pulled out in January when by all logic, they already knew they didn't have the money and organization to prevail against Romney, Paul would have easily racked up many caucus state victories, and strong primary state finishes (as in his 41% showing head to head against Mitt in VA). This is WWE, people, the outcomes are pre-negotiated. The job of most of the candidates all along was to run resistance for Romney, and block out Paul. The elite's plan is for Mitt to likewise lose gracefully to Obama in the fall election, to maintain continuity of government (i.e., a Bush or a Clinton in control of foreign policy) until Jeb Bush runs and can be installed in 2016.

The point is it wasn't Newt and Rick's ego that kept them in, it was the establishment pushing them to prevent Paul from gaining any traction when it was still possible to catch Mitt. The plan was originally to black out Paul altogether from the start of the race last summer, but when he came on strong at the Iowa straw vote, they had to push Bachmann, his only competition at that poll. When he kept coming on strong, they tried to get Paul sidetracked squabbling with second tier candidate Santorum in the early debates. When that didn't work, they pushed Perry and then Cain as the 'credible' alternative (only to see them crash and burn as badly as Bachmann).

Turning to Newt in desperation, the establishment found to their horror that Paul was prevailing against him as well, and led in the polls going into the Iowa caucuses. The MSM then invented the Santorum surge, much as they had picked up McCain's lackluster carcass and dragged him across the finish line to victory in the early primaries of 2008. Bachmann and Huntsman were assigned to savagely attack Paul, since they were soon bowing out anyway. Since then they've had to pad for time until April, using Santorum and newt to soak up the anti-Romney vote, and split up the conservative vote enough to protect Romney, while suppressing Paul. When all else failed, they rigged the vote or caucus process outright, including changing the rules at delegate selection time where they could. In hindsight, it has been nothing less than a full team effort to marginalize Paul and push Mitt from start to finish.

Yeah, no. This didn't happen at all. Newt is in because he is on quite an ego-trip, and Santorum is in because he thinks he can win. Neither really cared about Ron Paul.
 
Yeah, no. This didn't happen at all. Newt is in because he is on quite an ego-trip, and Santorum is in because he thinks he can win. Neither really cared about Ron Paul.

We'll have more clarity in a month. I suspect they'll both quit by then, because their real job (frustrating Paul, as ordered by the leadership) will have been accomplished. Whereas if ego or self-interest was the real factor keeping them going, they would continue to the convention. Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman had quite the egos, too, but they quit. Newt and Rick stayed because they were considered sufficient obstacles to block Paul from victories, momentum or top-tier media coverage.
 
We'll have more clarity in a month. I suspect they'll both quit by then, because their real job (frustrating Paul, as ordered by the leadership) will have been accomplished. Whereas if ego or self-interest was the real factor keeping them going, they would continue to the convention. Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman had quite the egos, too, but they quit. Newt and Rick stayed because they were considered sufficient obstacles to block Paul from victories, momentum or top-tier media coverage.

'I predict' that this statement is wrong. Santorum will go longer than April. Who knows about Newt.
 
We'll have more clarity in a month. I suspect they'll both quit by then, because their real job (frustrating Paul, as ordered by the leadership) will have been accomplished. Whereas if ego or self-interest was the real factor keeping them going, they would continue to the convention. Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman had quite the egos, too, but they quit. Newt and Rick stayed because they were considered sufficient obstacles to block Paul from victories, momentum or top-tier media coverage.


You need to lay off the conspiracy websites a bit. Santorum and Gingrich were in it to win. Period. They didn't think about Ron Paul for one second. Santorum COULD have won up until recently. So to suggest that they knew they were finished but stayed in it just to screw Ron Paul is absurd.

Besides, what is stopping a Santourm backer from saying the same thing about Ron Paul?
 
Paul was set up to compete around the country, for one thing, while Newt and Rick were not. As I said, we'll know for sure in about a month. As of now, I do know the logic of what I said is backed up by the record of what has actually happened, while the gullibility theorists among us assure us of the opposite, with NO comparable breakdown of the events of the past nine months.

Santorum and Gingrich were never in a position of direct funding, organization or ballot access to prevail against Romney, and both knew this in January. They were absolutely not in a position to win, exclamation point. I am suggesting the frustrations the Paul campaign has experienced has a degree of coordination about it, down to candidates and media shills at times using the exact same keywords and remarks to marginalize him.
 
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We'll have more clarity in a month. I suspect they'll both quit by then, because their real job (frustrating Paul, as ordered by the leadership) will have been accomplished. Whereas if ego or self-interest was the real factor keeping them going, they would continue to the convention. Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman had quite the egos, too, but they quit. Newt and Rick stayed because they were considered sufficient obstacles to block Paul from victories, momentum or top-tier media coverage.

Seriously lay off the conspiracies. Santorum was in it to win it. So was Gingrich. They don't care about Ron Paul- after Iowa they didn't even think he was a threat.
 
No, they are primarily in it to support the continuity of the establishment's control, which means stopping Paul---their own ambitions are secondary. It's not a conspiracy theory if the insiders up and tell you they're doing stuff:

"Doug Wead, a senior adviser to the Ron Paul Campaign, has exposed the fact that a GOP establishment director in Washington State has publicly made the claim that the Romney-Gingrich-Santorum campaigns have united to steal delegates from Ron Paul...."


http://theintelhub.com/2012/03/26/w...ull-scale-effort-to-steal-ron-paul-delegates/
 
Seriously lay off the conspiracies. Santorum was in it to win it. So was Gingrich. They don't care about Ron Paul- after Iowa they didn't even think he was a threat.

There's no reason these can't both be true. I suspect that individual candidates often -- probably usually -- enter races to win; if that's not the role their backers have for them in the race, they're oblivious to it, either because they're not smart enough or are too self-absorbed to see how they're being played.

Joel Skousen (one of the sharpest conspiracy analysts in the world, who's been studying this stuff longer than I've been alive) has said all along that the establishment doesn't want Romney. He has too much money, has little history of personal corruption, and entered the race both times uninvited and unvetted. That doesn't mean he's a good candidate from the perspective of a Paul supporter, nor does it mean he isn't a statist, or that he hasn't sucked up to the establishment and surrounded himself with establishment advisers. He has, which Joel has acknowledged. But they still don't seem to want him, likely because they have doubts about how well he can be controlled.

I think he's right; this race makes a lot more sense if you look at it that way.

Last time, corrupt insider Huckabee entered the race right after Romney, and dropped out right after Romney. He was likely recruited to split the evangelical vote, although (an example of what I noted above) he may have been oblivious to his real role.

This time, the media narrative all along has been that the GOP doesn't want Romney and is looking for an alternative, and the establishment has thrown one corrupt insider after another at him as a new "front-runner;" every time one didn't stick, they brought in someone else -- and tried to bring in even more, like Christie, who didn't take the bait. That's not how someone is built up as the nominee. (Compare it to how they built up Lieberman in 2003, or Giuliani in 2007.)

A couple of weeks ago, Joel speculated in his newsletter that Frothy and Gingrich are being kept in because the elite are trying to deliberately engineer a brokered convention in a final attempt to stop Romney, and he predicted that, if one of those two is too weak to win on the convention floor, they'll insert someone else, probably Jeb Bush. He said he felt that, if Gingrich lost both Mississippi and Alabama, but stayed in, that would be an indication that his guess is right. That happened. But, again, that doesn't mean Gingrich knows; his advisers may be playing to his ego, telling him there's going to be a brokered convention, so he can still win; that he's the smartest, best guy for the job; "your country needs you;" etc.

This week, after Jeb Bush endorsed Romney, Joel guessed that either the elite have decided to go with someone else and save Bush for 2016, or Ron Paul's delegate strategy has them panicking that their plan may backfire at the convention and that Ron could win if it gets to a second ballot, and they may have decided to reluctantly take Romney (whom Joel readily concedes that they'd take a million times over before they'd take Ron Paul), then throw it to Obama in the general.
 
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