Gold / Silver dropping - your thoughts?
- Thread starter Lord Xar
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Ronin Truth
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My thought is that I'd prefer that the prices were rising.
helmuth_hubener
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RJB
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If it drops below $20, I'll give you a GAE.
If it goes above $5000 an ounce, good luck finding me in the Bahamas.
helmuth_hubener
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helmuth_hubener
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Seriously, Tod, more fortune-tellers? Why do you think these guys have any insight into what the future holds?
Guess what: they don't!
Here's a challenge: dig up some predictions from this Bill Holter person and John Williams person from 10 years ago, no make it just 1 year ago. See if any of the forecasts they made were in any way correct. I will bet you'll find these forecasts would not have had any value to you whatsoever.
These people do not know what's coming. There may be a crash or there may not be. Mathematical certainty? That is absolutely ridiculous. Totally, totally laughable.
If you want certainty in life, look for it elsewhere. You're not going to find it in economics.
Guess what: they don't!
Here's a challenge: dig up some predictions from this Bill Holter person and John Williams person from 10 years ago, no make it just 1 year ago. See if any of the forecasts they made were in any way correct. I will bet you'll find these forecasts would not have had any value to you whatsoever.
These people do not know what's coming. There may be a crash or there may not be. Mathematical certainty? That is absolutely ridiculous. Totally, totally laughable.
If you want certainty in life, look for it elsewhere. You're not going to find it in economics.
Tod
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You mean like this one where Jim Rogers correctly predicted last summer that gold and silver would continue to fall in this year?
I'll go look for more from Holter (that is the first I've seen him) and Williams.
So far, the numbers on the economy have been in keeping with what all these guys are saying, which is that the economic problems have not been solved; only delayed with QE.
Zippyjuan
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I still think metals are a bubble which is slowly deflating. They got pumped up massively during the Great Recession- prices quadrupled in about five years. That is a bigger and faster rise than housing prices during their bubble. A world crisis stirs it up a bit and raises them back up but after the crisis stabilizes the prices of metals resume their declines. Net effect for the year has actually been little to no change so far. (I haven't checked in a while but see gold broke below $1300 and is about $1270.)
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helmuth_hubener
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Yes, your misguided interpretation of Jim Rogers' statements as fortunetelling is exactly the kind of thing I'm speaking out against.
Jim, "you had foreseen the corrections that happened to gold."
No he did not, Daniella. He would not claim to. He didn't "foresee" anything. He did not know the future. He did not know what gold would be doing in 2013 back in 2011. Just like the rest of us didn't.
He does make a prediction, unfortunately: "Gold is probably gonna continue to fluctuate here (rallies, of course) for another year or two, and then make its final bottom." I find this unfortunate because he does not actually have any special insight into this matter, and because despite that fact most investors listening will nevertheless believe that he does and many will act on his words as if he does.
But he doesn't.
Jim tells the truth about this, as clearly and as plainly as he possibly could, and yet no one wants to hear the truth:
"I'm the world's worst trader. I'm the world's worst market timer. So you should not be wasting your time asking me about gold."
How much clearer could he be? But you want to hold him up and say "look, he predicted the future." No he didn't. In fact, he predicted that he would be wrong.
"What all these guys are saying." As if they're all one monolithic group. As if they're all saying the same thing. No, I am sorry, they are saying different things. Some which could be mutually compatible, some which contradicts each other, and a lot of which is vague and unactionable and contradicts other things they themselves are saying.
Then you say "the economic problems have not been solved," as if that would contradict anything that I think or have been saying. Clearly I have totally and completely failed to help you understand at all the ideas I'm trying to get across. The economic problems of America are not "solved." I agree with that. Here is what I do not agree with:
1. Gold is going to go up this year -- or even in the coming five years. It's a mathematical certainty.
2. Gold is going to go down this year -- or even in the coming five years. They were in a bubble. All the charts and fundamentals point to this.
3. Gold is going to muddle along about the same this year. An analyst with a great track record said so.
Here is what I do agree with:
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Acala
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Housing prices were driven to a large extent by the creation of credit money. There is relatively little credit money pumping up gold. Not saying prices won't drop. Just saying that housing is a fundamentally different animal than metals.
Zippyjuan
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The price of gold was driven to a large extent by economic fears (and some political ones such as wars). As the fears decline, so does the price. In 1980 (the last bubble) the fear was high inflation which hit double digits (along with unemployment). As the rate of inflation came down, so did the price of gold.
Acala
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Which is an entirely different matter than what drove housing prices, which was a combination of easy credit money and speculation. So there really is not much comparison, although some of the increase in gold prices was also speculation.
Acala
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As I said, I make no predictions about the price of gold. My only point was that the comparison between the housing bubble and the price of gold is unsound.
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