Gold as Inflation?

JordanQ72

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I've seen a lot of mention of measuring inflation, 'true' goods prices, 'true' growth and wages, currency valuation, etc.. by comparing it to gold pricing. I must say I thought it was somewhat arbitrary, and not really explained anywhere here, besides the notion that lots of people do it. So, I found this chart of gold prices

goldbi8.png


Now, from that am I to understand that the US experienced deflation throughout the 80s and 90s?
 
The price of gold is going to reflect inflation and the expected future inflation. In the late 70s and early 80s, the expectation of high inflation continuing was high, so therefore you had the high price then.
 
So it's speculative and meaningless as a predictor or even a gauge of inflation?

Well, it all relates to inflation, but you have the two components. The high in 1980 is the result of the expectation that the Fed would not correct the problem, so you had a significant premium added to the price of gold. Actual inflation is measured by the amount of federal reserve notes there are in circulation, and it is questionable whether that is the M2 or M3 number. Consumer prices is also a measure of inflation, which is done in several different ways. I would recommend looking at http://shadowstats.com for some alternative statistics.
 
you have to understand that Gold went "sky high" after Nixon announced that the US is officially no longer on the $35/oz Gold Standard. That's when Gold started to really rally as the World has lost faith in the USD back then.

As with any market that takes off, speculation became part of it. Fast forward to 2008 and we had Gold already reach over $900 per oz. From less than $300 about 7 years ago...it's an indication that the demand for gold went up - as a result of people once again losing trust in that currency.

How is this time different than 30 years ago? We now have 11trillian in debt ($50+ Trillian when including promised debt), we are now in the BEGINNING of the probably worst financial housing bubble the US ever has experienced and the "printing presses" / "creation of new money" are running at a high rate.

As with every market though, speculation will once again become part of this Gold/ Silver market. Right now we are still very far away from that point but there will come a time when it's best to exit the Precious metals market and start investing in the blue chips stocks and housing. But before that day comes I expect the masses to invest and talk about gold mining stocks.

Gold cannot really be seen as a "live " indicator of inflation at all times. As every financial market, precious metals also experience cycles. And speculation can amplify those cycles. Yes, Gold came down hard from the $780 high ($850 spike) in the eary 80s - but take a look what it was before that time...fixed at $35/oz. I suspect though, that this cycle will make the other cycle in the 70s/early 80s look like foreplay.
 
And historically speaking, Gold has shown to reach a 1:1 or 1:2 relationship compared to the DOW. So even if we have the DOW crash by 50%, Gold at that time could be "worth" around $3,000 - $6,000 according to my historical "analysis". On the other hand, if we have complete hyperinflation with the Dow reaching 25,000 we could have $15-20,000 for an oz. of gold.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gold rally to over $4,000 oz. Financial history has shown that the right market environment amplified by speculation can yield tremendous returns (e.g Precious Metals junior mining stocks...:)
 
Fast forward to 2008 and we had Gold already reach over $900 per oz. From less than $300 about 7 years ago

So what does that mean in terms of the topic at hand?

Is inflation in 2007 over 3x what it was in 2000?

Have we actually been experiencing 17% inflation since 2000?

Or is there only a marginal correlation between the direction of inflation and gold prices, i.e., if gold prices go up, inflation probably went up, but you can't really say how much?
 
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