Gold and Silver Predictions for 2014

[oyarde]

Ouch , Asian markets look, not good , imagine that ...

 

[helmuth_hubener]

This statement is so ignorant it's heartbreaking. Ever heard of the London Gold Pool and the events that led to the US having to leave the Gold Standard?

I am sorry to break your achy heart even further, NoOneButPaul, but I have indeed heard of these things. I am not ignorant of them; I merely disagree with you.

Years long manipulation with physical to cap the price at $35 dollars an ounce. It fell apart and the capped gold price went with it. I mean this happened less than 50 years ago and now here it is a person is making a statement like this with no knowledge that it did happen, has happened, and continues to happen today. Gold manipulation is obvious.

While we both are aware of roughly these same historical events, I may be aware of a little bit more than you. No big deal. I would characterize things a little differently than you have. To me, the fact that once the true market price of dollars became less than 1/35th of an ounce of gold nothing -- and I mean nothing -- could stop that true market price from manifesting itself, that fact is a testament to the non-manipulability of the gold market. Even a player with such a huge percentage of the actual gold stock as the US government was, was unable to prevent the market from manifesting the truth. If the official price of the dollar in terms of gold had remained 1/35th oz. and the "gold window" had remained open, all of the US government's gold -- all of it -- every last ounce -- would have flown out that window in surprisingly short order. France was ordering it by the ton. Everyone was ordering it by the ton. It would have all been gone.

The market can't be stopped. The market can't be manipulated. The truth will out.

There's a reason we didn't get Germany even it's first installment back of physical gold in December. We do not have any physical gold left. We have warehouses full of paper receipts good in gold. Even Greenspan indirectly admitted Central Banks were leasing out gold to control the price during the late 90s. It's totally manipulated and you're foolish not to see it and take advantage.

Government doesn't work. Government can try to do many things -- and usually does! That doesn't mean that what they are trying to do will work. As a matter of fact: it usually doesn't. Government doesn't work.

The market reaction to what the government does cannot be controlled. It cannot be prevented. It cannot be reliably predicted (by anyone, and certainly not by government bureaucrats). The market is in control. The market will brook no barriers. It will flood over dams, it will break through dykes, and it will destroy and sweep away the puny attempts of central banks to stop it.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

It's totally manipulated and you're foolish not to see it and take advantage.

Also, whether or not I am foolish in my beliefs, how am I being foolish in my actions? Actions are more important, are they not? What actions or failures to act am I guilty of which you would characterize as "foolish"? How exactly do you think I should be "taking advantage," but am failing to?

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I know it could be shocking , but just an old dirt farmer with a pretty undesirable job like me has been able to get by OK without the permanent portfolio .LOL ,lol

Oh, I know you have. Don't take it like that. I'm not trying to tell you what to do. I was just making what I think is a sound general point: what the market does is what the market does. No use getting bent out of shape about it. No use thinking it's wrong. The market doesn't really care what you and I think of its behavior.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

if you bought an ounce of gold, say [in] 1973 [for] $100, then sold it, say in 1976 for $125, that was not a good play, I would have told you not to do it...

If you had bought it in 2005 for $445, I still would have told you to hold it.

If I had bought an ounce of gold in 1980 for $650, would you have told me to hold it then?

If I had bought an ounce of gold in 1990 for $380, would you have told me to hold it then?

 

[oyarde]

If I had bought an ounce of gold in 1980 for $650, would you have told me to hold it then?

If I had bought an ounce of gold in 1990 for $380, would you have told me to hold it then?

I did not buy much of any over $300 , during that time frame , thought that was high for my budget
, loaded up on silver . If I had bought it then , I would have held it too .

 

[oyarde]

$1365.50 .

 

[Madison320]

Actually if you have more dollars and the same supply of something you are buying with dollars, the price should go up- not down- all other things being equal.

Sorry. I meant the price of the dollar goes down.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I did not buy much of any over $300 , during that time frame , thought that was high for my budget
, loaded up on silver . If I had bought it then , I would have held it too .

So you would have advised me to just hold it. And keep holding it. And keep holding it.

That's the thing with gold bugs: you're never, never, never supposed to sell. Even when the price has gone way up. Even when the price goes down for 20 years in a row.

Now that's actually not really any different than the Permanent Portfolio. We just buy the gold and hold it. The minor difference is the rebalancing bands, so that if gold has gone disproportionately up, we sell the gold and thus lock in those profits. If gold has gone way down, on the other hand, we buy it to bring the allocation back up to 25%.

Buy low.

Sell high.

What do you know? It works!

 

[oyarde]

So you would have advised me to just hold it. And keep holding it. And keep holding it.

That's the thing with gold bugs: you're never, never, never supposed to sell. Even when the price has gone way up. Even when the price goes down for 20 years in a row.

Now that's actually not really any different than the Permanent Portfolio. We just buy the gold and hold it. The minor difference is the rebalancing bands, so that if gold has gone disproportionately up, we sell the gold and thus lock in those profits. If gold has gone way down, on the other hand, we buy it to bring the allocation back up to 25%.

Buy low.

Sell high.

What do you know? It works!

I do sell some , probably never did though at less than $1100 . I was not surprised when it broke $1000 . What I sell though are pre 1930's and go over spot .An example would be a common early 1900's 2 1/2 dollar gold pc in Very Fine , probably bring $100 over spot.

 

[oyarde]

If gold went to $1700 or $1800 tomorrow , I may sell a little bit .

 

[oyarde]

What I really want to know is , what will the price be in 2025 ? If it is North of 2K , I may want more , otherwise , maybe not .LOL

 

[jllundqu]

Anyone else stoked that Gold is up over 20$/TO so far today???

 

[DFF]

Anyone else stoked that Gold is up over 20$/TO so far today???

Yours truly. Gold took out overhead resistance at $1362. Next stop: $1420.

 

[oyarde]

Anyone else stoked that Gold is up over 20$/TO so far today???

$1369.10.

 

[DFF]

What I really want to know is , what will the price be in 2025 ? If it is North of 2K , I may want more , otherwise , maybe not .LOL

Hard to say what will happen in the future, but as a frame of reference, Gold was ~$300 per ounce in 1999.

 

[Zippyjuan]

What I really want to know is , what will the price be in 2025 ? If it is North of 2K , I may want more , otherwise , maybe not .LOL

If anybody knows for certain what the price of something will be at a specific point in the future, they could make billions. Obviously nobody does.

 

[Madison320]

Now that's actually not really any different than the Permanent Portfolio. We just buy the gold and hold it. The minor difference is the rebalancing bands, so that if gold has gone disproportionately up, we sell the gold and thus lock in those profits. If gold has gone way down, on the other hand, we buy it to bring the allocation back up to 25%.

Buy low.

Sell high.

What do you know? It works!

The flaw in that idea is that statistically just because something goes down doesn't mean it's going back up. And just because it goes up doesn't mean it's coming down. It seems to me you'll get hammered in a prolonged high inflation environment. You'll be constantly selling your hard assets (as their dollar value is inflated higher), and loading up on dollars. You'll end up with one gold flake and a bunch of worthless pieces of paper.

 

[Madison320]

Anyone else stoked that Gold is up over 20$/TO so far today???

I own gold but I'm not that excited yet about the price going up. I'm looking at other data points like total govt debt, oil, dollar index, interest rates and most importantly, QE. I think you'll see big changes in those data points first before you see a big spike in gold.

 

[DFF]

If anybody knows for certain what the price of something will be at a specific point in the future, they could make billions. Obviously nobody does.

Not so fast.

When the Federal Reserve sets interest rates (which effects stocks, futures, forex etc), they make this decision in private before they release it to the public.

Who's to say they're not tipping off the banks ahead of time? And the banks are reaping billions of dollars via inside information?

With central banking, market certainties are very much possible...