Gold and Silver Predictions for 2014

[oyarde]

Maybe that means that when tensions ease, gold will resume its price decline.

I would agree , if I thought tensions were ever going to ease , there will be the next , and the next , If I had to guess ....

 

[oyarde]

Interesting thought. The world is in a crisis so gold should go up in price. In that case, it should only and always go up since there is always some crisis going on someplace (usually several at once). I wonder how it managed to go down half of the time since we finally closed out the gold standard (1972- in half of the years since then, gold has declined in price)?

Good point , after the early 70's , , it should not have gone down ......

 

[DFF]

I wonder how it managed to go down half of the time since we finally closed out the gold standard (1972- in half of the years since then, gold has declined in price)?

Short-selling by banks to deliberately bring down the price. Were gold not tampered with, it's chart would be vertical since 1972, with very insignificant pullbacks.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Silver's rebounding @ 20.83$:o

 

[Madison320]

Interesting thought. The world is in a crisis so gold should go up in price. In that case, it should only and always go up since there is always some crisis going on someplace (usually several at once). I wonder how it managed to go down half of the time since we finally closed out the gold standard (1972- in half of the years since then, gold has declined in price)?

You're right it has nothing to with "world tension". Like you said there's always tension in the world. It has to due with simple econ 101. Supply and demand. As the supply of dollars goes up the price goes down.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

Good point, after the early 70's... it should not have gone down ......

"Should"? "Should"? What does that mean? You are passing value judgments on what the market "should" and "should not" have done?

One can point the finger of judgment at the market I suppose and say "You're wrong! You should have done this." And one can then take satisfaction in the "fact" that he is right and the market is wrong, as he loses lots of money due to the market being "wrong."

Or one can accept that whatever the market does is whatever the market does -- there is no "should."

 

[Zippyjuan]

You're right it has nothing to with "world tension". Like you said there's always tension in the world. It has to due with simple econ 101. Supply and demand. As the supply of dollars goes up the price goes down.

Actually if you have more dollars and the same supply of something you are buying with dollars, the price should go up- not down- all other things being equal.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Good point , after the early 70's , , it should not have gone down ......

The strongest corelation with the price of gold since 1972 has been the rate of inflation. From 1972 to roughly 1980 (when the rate of inflation hit double digits), the rate of inflation was rising and the price of gold was also rising. When the Fed cranked up interest rates and inflation started to decline, the price of gold also declined. They both went down until about 2004. The recent gold bubble is more associated with the economic crisis than the rate of inflation- which has stayed low.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

There is no manipulation. The gold market is too large to effectively manipulate. This is just a ridiculous conspiracy theory trotted out by people who don't happen to like what the price of gold is doing at the time.

This statement is so ignorant it's heartbreaking. Ever heard of the London Gold Pool and the events that lead to the US having to leave the Gold Standard? Years long manipulation with physical to cap the price at $35 dollars an ounce. It fell apart and the capped gold price went with it. I mean this happened less than 50 years ago and now here it is a person is making a statement like this with no knowledge that it did happen, has happened, and continues to happen today. Gold manipulation is obvious.

There's a reason we didn't get Germany even it's first installment back of physical gold in December. We do not have any physical gold left. We have warehouses full of paper receipts good in gold. Even Greenspan indirectly admitted Central Banks were leasing out gold to control the price during the late 90s. It's totally manipulated and you're foolish not to see it and take advantage.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

The strongest corelation with the price of gold since 1972 has been the rate of inflation. From 1972 to roughly 1980 (when the rate of inflation hit double digits), the rate of inflation was rising and the price of gold was also rising. When the Fed cranked up interest rates and inflation started to decline, the price of gold also declined. They both went down until about 2004. The recent gold bubble is more associated with the economic crisis than the rate of inflation- which has stayed low.

There's a big reason things might be different this time... there's over a trillion dollars sitting at the Fed in reserves. It's sitting there because the velocity of money is dead and the rate of interest at the fed is actually worth it since they drove the real rate of interest to near 0 for almost 6 years:

If the rate of interest rises and all this money gets unleashed onto the public then it may not be like 1980 at all.

Finally, the real reason to buy physical gold and/or silver, is to insure yourself against a worldwide rejection of the dollar. To not have at least 5% of your networth in physical PMs is to trust our monetary system and the central bankers who run it. That is so incredibly foolish. Hedge yourself against your paper assets. Never before in history has the entire world primarily used one currency and right now it's clear the government's are racing to the bottom with theirs to try to increase economic growth. This has never been tried before in the history of the world. If you aren't at least open to stacking a little bit you're setting yourself up for a real financial disaster. The fact this entire system was HOURS from collapsing financially 6 years ago (that's what the bankers told us anyway) doesn't seem to have anyone worried. All is well folks, keep buying the all-time highs in stocks and forget about the stability of your broken currency and unsustainable debt.

 

[oyarde]

"Should"? "Should"? What does that mean? You are passing value judgments on what the market "should" and "should not" have done?

One can point the finger of judgment at the market I suppose and say "You're wrong! You should have done this." And one can then take satisfaction in the "fact" that he is right and the market is wrong, as he loses lots of money due to the market being "wrong."

Or one can accept that whatever the market does is whatever the market does -- there is no "should."

I just make my money as I go , but if you bought an ounce of gold , say 1973 , avg yearly price was probably around $100 , then sold it , say in 1976 for $125 , that was not a good play , I would have told you not to do it , if you needed the $125 , I would just loan it to you for a couple weeks , no interest . If you had bought it in 2005 for $445 , I still would have told you to hold it . I sold an 1881 Ten dollar gold pc this year , I picked it up in a poker game in London , maybe 1985 . It was about a $150 pot . I would not have put that in . Only hand I played that night . The market may decide . There are though , should and should nots in life . Choose wisely . Sound principles.

 

[Zippyjuan]

There's a big reason things might be different this time... there's over a trillion dollars sitting at the Fed in reserves. It's sitting there because the velocity of money is dead and the rate of interest at the fed is actually worth it since they drove the real rate of interest to near 0 for almost 6 years:



If the rate of interest rises and all this money gets unleashed onto the public then it may not be like 1980 at all.

Finally, the real reason to buy physical gold and/or silver, is to insure yourself against a worldwide rejection of the dollar. To not have at least 5% of your networth in physical PMs is to trust our monetary system and the central bankers who run it. That is so incredibly foolish. Hedge yourself against your paper assets. Never before in history has the entire world primarily used one currency and right now it's clear the government's are racing to the bottom with theirs to try to increase economic growth. This has never been tried before in the history of the world. If you aren't at least open to stacking a little bit you're setting yourself up for a real financial disaster. The fact this entire system was HOURS from collapsing financially 6 years ago (that's what the bankers told us anyway) doesn't seem to have anyone worried. All is well folks, keep buying the all-time highs in stocks and forget about the stability of your broken currency and unsustainable debt.

Higher interest rates will discourage borrowing. Less borrowing means LOWER velocity of money and all that money in excess reserves will continue to sit where it is- higher interest rates won't "unleash" it but discourage that. For it to "flood out" you need a huge surge in demand for money- like say the economy suddenly was growing like crazy.

Never before in history has the entire world primarily used one currency and right now it's clear the government's are racing to the bottom with theirs to try to increase economic growth. This has never been tried before in the history of the world.

The world still isn't using primarily one currency. Euros, yen, yuan, rubles, dollars (US, Canadian, Australian, etc), pesos, ect.

 

[oyarde]

The strongest corelation with the price of gold since 1972 has been the rate of inflation. From 1972 to roughly 1980 (when the rate of inflation hit double digits), the rate of inflation was rising and the price of gold was also rising. When the Fed cranked up interest rates and inflation started to decline, the price of gold also declined. They both went down until about 2004. The recent gold bubble is more associated with the economic crisis than the rate of inflation- which has stayed low.

Yeah , pretty much , except I see it ( say 2006 to current )as a loss in faith of unbacked currencies , I have no faith in the Fed. Nothing has been repaired on such " economic crisis " , next will only be worse , I imagine , since there will be no full recovery before ....

 

[oyarde]

Anyway , we are @ $1358 , by next Tue , could be $1375 , $1350 barrier has been broken . Who knows , feel pretty good though about the 1/2 gram of 10 kt I picked up on 2/24 for $10.50

 

[DFF]

The recent gold bubble is more associated with the economic crisis than the rate of inflation- which has stayed low

Official inflation has stayed low. But real inflation is clocking in at a much higher rate. For example, whilst the government says there's little to no inflation, the price of groceries have risen a lot over the last few years, as has the price of oil, which has averaged a $100 a barrel for quite some time. Strangely, the government's CPI numbers exclude energy and food costs, so this statistic is very misleading. And being that real inflation is indeed growing, the idea there's some type of "gold bubble" is quite off base. If anything, gold is undervalued.

 

[DFF]

dp

 

[oyarde]

Official inflation has stayed low. But real inflation is clocking in at a much higher rate. The price of groceries has rising quite a bit over the last few years, as has the price of oil, which has averaged a $100 a barrel for quite some time. These government CPI numbers (which exclude energy and food costs) you're so fond of referencing are total boloney. And the notion that there's some type of "gold bubble" is equally ridiculous.

Well , none of that is going to get better , and by summer it will be in play , corn going to fuel ( bad play , putting a big part of the food chain in that ) , no water in Caly , higher diesel and gasoline wholesale costs , meat , milk prices , higher , canned goods , higher , produce , higher . People at the lower end are going to be pinched harder . Wages are not going to go up , employment will not as well . Bring out some more Dem welfare , food stamp voters , I reckon ..... they could be pissed when they have to buy hot dogs and noodles like the people who pay for those steaks , LOL

 

[oyarde]

Silver's rebounding @ 20.83$:o

Looks like about $21 and a nickel , but it should be more , you will not be able to buy any for that , so , maybe we should just use the price you can buy some for , lol

 

[Schifference]

My prediction Gold at 1.875 BTC
Silver at 0.034375 BTC

 

[oyarde]

I know it could be shocking , but just an old dirt farmer with a pretty undesirable job like me has been able to get by OK without the permanent portfolio .LOL ,lol