Gingrich and Santorum CAN'T WIN THE NOMINATION. They miss out on 500 delegates.

Darthbrooklyn said:
Can I ask a question.. maybe this was covered.. If Newt or Santorum know this, why are they still running? Do they not know this? Do they expect other states to let them in?
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I think we are all waiting to find out more information on this and if its correct or not. When you google newt 564 delegates all you get is posts that are related to the Doug Wead video. If we get a good source I would be posting it everywhere I doubt he would say it on national TV if it wasn't true but at the same time you would think this would be all over the news.
 
Weads statement is not accurate. According to my understanding, gingrich is only off the ballot in VA..
 
Do you really believe that they will not gain access to those delegates?

If you do, then keep on suppporting those ALL VOLUNTEER troops who are defending our freedoms ok?
 
Darthbrooklyn said:
Can I ask a question.. maybe this was covered.. If Newt or Santorum know this, why are they still running? Do they not know this? Do they expect other states to let them in?
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They aren't running to win. There are other prizes to be won, other than the presidency. The biggest prize is the VP slot. Other prizes included cabinet positions, ambassadorships, and even just simply increasing their own "brand" value. "Brand value" boosts book sales or raises their asking price for speaking fees or leverages better deals for appearing on FOX.

The more cynical will also point out that their campaigns can be leveraged to try and get in Ron Paul's path of victory. For that, there would be some return either as just mentioned or perhaps even more nefarious.
 
Lightweis said:
Weads statement is not accurate. According to my understanding, gingrich is only off the ballot in VA..
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No he is also off in Missouri and has incomplete delegate slates some other places, but I agree, having looked into it, 500 seems pretty high. Maybe he was combining Gingrich and Santorum's missed delegates, since Santorum is also off in DC and in trouble at least in Indiana, but it seems high. I would just use where he's off and not go with that number.
 
sailingaway said:
No he is also off in Missouri and has incomplete delegate slates some other places, but I agree, having looked into it, 500 seems pretty high. Maybe he was combining Gingrich and Santorum's missed delegates, since Santorum is also off in DC and in trouble at least in Indiana, but it seems high. I would just use where he's off and not go with that number.
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I'm looking for the original quote. I think the statement was along the lines of "off the ballot and without a ground game." Thus, the number is also referencing what they deem as un-winnable for the two of them without an organized ground force.
 
I know Santorum isn't on the ballot in 3 districts in Ohio, but other than that, he's going to be on it. I think Gingrich is on it everywhere in Ohio
 
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Can someone come up with a magic number for Ron's chances at having a brokered convention? I heard one source say that if he comes in 3rd in every state, he would have 200-300 delegates, which probably wouldn't guarantee a brokered convention. If he comes in second in at least ten states and wins three or four, he'll have a good chunk of delegates, and hopefully Willard will have split the rest of the delegates with Newt.

Here's some rough math:

Willard: 1000
Newt: 600
Ron: 500
Rick: 200
~2300

My magic number would be 500, which is tough but doable. We gotta be optimistic and work extra hard!
 
goRPaul said:
Can someone come up with a magic number for Ron's chances at having a brokered convention? I heard one source say that if he comes in 3rd in every state, he would have 200-300 delegates, which probably wouldn't guarantee a brokered convention. If he comes in second in at least ten states and wins three or four, he'll have a good chunk of delegates, and hopefully Willard will have split the rest of the delegates with Newt.

Here's some rough math:

Willard: 1000
Newt: 600
Ron: 500
Rick: 200
~2300

My magic number would be 500, which is tough but doable. We gotta be optimistic and work extra hard!
Click to expand...

I don't see Rick sticking around for 200.
 
sailingaway said:
No he is also off in Missouri and has incomplete delegate slates some other places, but I agree, having looked into it, 500 seems pretty high. Maybe he was combining Gingrich and Santorum's missed delegates, since Santorum is also off in DC and in trouble at least in Indiana, but it seems high. I would just use where he's off and not go with that number.
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Newt is not missing ANY delegates in Missouri. See my post a few posts up: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...0-delegates.&p=4078230&viewfull=1#post4078230
 
what is Romney's path to a first ballot win? I don't see it , not with under 50% even in Florida
 
Cleaner44 said:
Newt Gingrich fails to get on Missouri ballot
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"Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is currently leading the Republican field of presidential candidates, but Missouri voters won't get a chance to cast a primary vote for him.

Gingrich failed to get on the Missouri ballot, the Los Angeles Times reports, because he didn't submit the necessary paperwork in time.

Missouri's February primary is mostly for show, the Times points out -- the Missouri GOP won't award delegates to the candidates until it holds caucuses in March."

Confirms what Lets_Race posted right before you.
 
Newt going to "lawsuit" his way through everyone of them; until he hands the election over to his bigest contributor... Obama.
 
I don't see where they can't get 500 delegats. 46 from Virginia (there is 49 there, but 3 of them can do whatever they want). Missouri no delegates in the beauty primary, Illinois (Santorum can miss out on some).....but where are all these other missing delegates. OP refuses to cite.
 
Thread is frustrating.

Santorum: failed to gain not fewer than -221

-9 Illinois
http://www.chicagotalks.org/2012/01...l-in-illinois-primary-political-analysts-say/
-9 Ohio
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/01/rick_santorum_wont_compete_for.html
-27 Indiana
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ba...ck-santorum-doesnt-qualify-for-indiana-ballot
-16 District of Corruption
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/santorum-doesnt-file-for-dc-ballot-109647.html
-27 or -41 Tennessee (confusing)
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2011/dec/30/bachmann-santorum-fail-to-qualify-delegates-on/
-46 Virginia
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...erry-and-huntsman-lose-virginia-ballot-fight/

Already allocated to others:
-12 New Hampshire
-25 South Carolina
-50 Florida

Gingrich: failed to gain not fewer than -110

-46 Virginia
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...erry-and-huntsman-lose-virginia-ballot-fight/

Already allocated to others:
-12 New Hampshire
-2 South Carolina (according to http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/SC-R)
-50 Florida

Gingrich delegates acquired: 23
+23 South Carolina

Paul: failed to gain not fewer than -84

Already allocated to others:
-9 New Hampshire
-25 South Carolina
-50 Florida

Paul delegates acquired: 3
+3 New Hampshire

Romney: failed to gain not fewer than -28*

Already allocated to others:
-5 New Hampshire*
-23 South Carolina

Romney delegates acquired: 59*
+7 New Hampshire*
+2 South Carolina
+50 Florida

*2 other delegates from NH went to Huntsman. Likely to go to Romney, putting him at 61.
 
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