Gerald Celente: Total Economic Collapse in Q1 2014

[LibForestPaul]

Sorry Gerry, I know you mean well, but I've been estimating December 2014 for years now and I'm sticking with it. My guestimate is really a range, from Nov 15th 2014 to February 28th 2015. I believe that they will manage to prop up the remaining fiction of an economy until after the 2014 General Election. I just say 'December 2014' because it's easier, and anything that falls within the range I've specified is close enough to Dec 2014 that I won't get quibbles about it. This has been my estimate since middle of 2009 and I'm sticking to it. Indeed, it formed the basis of my recovery plan. Elect Constitutionalists in 2014 to take the lead in the rebuilding effort.

I second this timeline.

 

[LibForestPaul]

How is that collapse going anyways? (Celente and Schiff are always saying collapse is right around the corner- eventually they may be right- eventually).

We already had a collapse. Would you like me to post Paulsons remarks to Congress.
Magically, it was averted. Go FED! You guys rock. They're like thin old superheroes in suits, with glasses.

 

[FindLiberty]

LOL,

The soda crackers and bottled water in my bug-out bag must be stale and they need to be replaced.
I'm in no hurry though, 'cause the music is still playing and the Russian nukes have not been
launched at Chicago in a retaliatory strike (as far as I know), yet.

I think it will crash long before my PC hits an integer overflow error due to a impossibly large
hyperinflation fiat number entered as a capital gain (or loss) on some future 1040 schedule D.

 

[PRB]

How many times does he have to be wrong for us to stop taking him seriously?

 

[Tod]

We are in the early stages, so it still looks like not much is happening beyond just a tough economy, but when you consider what is happening with the BRICS nations planning their own central bank, the Russians and Chinese setting up to sell/buy oil in native currencies (complete with a test run), the accumulation of gold by the Chinese and Indians, and more, it is apparent that big changes are on the horizon, featuring the decline of the US. The hard part is the timing.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...ss-chinese-central-banks-enter-swap-agreement

De-Dollarization Spreads: Swiss & Chinese Central Banks Enter Swap Agreement

The Swiss National Bank and the People’s Bank of China reached a currency swap agreement this week. While this is not a huge trend changer in the near-term, it demonstrates that our forecast for China to become the largest economy and to be the next financial capital of the world when Europe and the USA blow themselves apart with defaulting socialism is on track. This agreement will allow the two central banks to buy and sell their currencies up to a limit of 150 billion renminbi, or 21 billion Swiss francs ($23.4 billion).
The deal will also allow the Swiss central bank to invest some of its huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese bond market.
The Zurich-based SNB said the agreement will further strengthen collaboration between it and its Chinese counterpart and is a “key requisite for the development of a renminbi market in Switzerland.” It could also facilitate trade and investment between the two countries, the PBOC said. This demonstrates that China is moving in the correct direction.

 

[qh4dotcom]

Sorry Gerry, I know you mean well, but I've been estimating December 2014 for years now and I'm sticking with it. My guestimate is really a range, from Nov 15th 2014 to February 28th 2015. I believe that they will manage to prop up the remaining fiction of an economy until after the 2014 General Election. I just say 'December 2014' because it's easier, and anything that falls within the range I've specified is close enough to Dec 2014 that I won't get quibbles about it. This has been my estimate since middle of 2009 and I'm sticking to it. Indeed, it formed the basis of my recovery plan. Elect Constitutionalists in 2014 to take the lead in the rebuilding effort.

The economy should have collapsed back in 1971 when the US defaulted on its gold obligations. The world was too dumb to continue trusting the United States after such a massive default....and for the past 43 years they have been too dumb to continue trusting the US.

Anyone who holds US Treasuries should be demanding an ounce of gold for every $35 they are owed. That was a promise the US made and it's a promise that the rest of world should be demanding it is honored.....geez, maybe even $35 is too much....how about the $20.67 Roosevelt forced every American to trade their gold for.

But look at the rest of the world....instead of raising hell and demanding their gold, they continue lending money to the US even though the US can't pay it back without the printing press. They continue shipping their stuff here and getting worthless paper in return.

I just don't see how the economic collapse is coming anytime soon because it looks like the rest of the world is determined to prop up the US economy indefinitely.

 

[qh4dotcom]

We are in the early stages, so it still looks like not much is happening beyond just a tough economy, but when you consider what is happening with the BRICS nations planning their own central bank, the Russians and Chinese setting up to sell/buy oil in native currencies (complete with a test run), the accumulation of gold by the Chinese and Indians, and more, it is apparent that big changes are on the horizon, featuring the decline of the US. The hard part is the timing.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...ss-chinese-central-banks-enter-swap-agreement

You forgot that none of the BRICS countries is willing to let their currencies appreciate versus the dollar....they can talk all the want but until they let their currencies appreciate, they are not serious about those big changes.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

The economy should have collapsed back in 1971 when the US defaulted on its gold obligations. The world was too dumb to continue trusting the United States after such a massive default....and for the past 43 years they have been too dumb to continue trusting the US.

Anyone who holds US Treasuries should be demanding an ounce of gold for every $35 they are owed. That was a promise the US made and it's a promise that the rest of world should be demanding it is honored.

But look at the rest of the world....instead of raising hell and demanding their gold, they continue lending money to the US even though the US can't pay it back without the printing press. They continue shipping their stuff here and getting worthless paper in return.

I just don't see how the economic collapse is coming anytime soon because it looks like the rest of the world is determined to prop up the US economy indefinitely.

That's the key really, isn't it? My estimate of end of this year beginning of the next, presumes a failure of the Petrodollar, and while events are ...slightly... behind my anticipated timeline it's not by much. The delay seems to be to give the rest of the world time to unhook quietly from the dollar so they are not crushed by it when it dies.

I said elsewhere on RPF's that my timing is predicated on a failure of the petrodollar, that if the petrodollar endures math is still math and we'll still face a total dollar collapse within 5-10 years if they manage to keep exporting monetary inflation overseas. But at the same time if they keep exporting monetary inflation overseas this will increase the pressure for the world to sell off and let the dollar collapse under it's own weight.

The movement between India and China I expected 2-3 months ago. If that drags on, it will push my timetable into beginning of Q2 2015.

just because it looks like the rest of the world will prop up the dollar indefinitely, does not mean that they will. If I were Russia China and India, and I were planning on dumping the dollar, I would do everything in my power to make it look like I was going to hold them forever until the hour I start selling....and if possible, I would try and make the world think I was keeping them even as I sold them off. The longer the world thought i was going to keep holding dollars, the more money I will get from the selloff.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

It all hinges on the petrodollar, which is far far more unpredictable than the basic math of currency inflation. We would already see a DOA dollar if not for their ability to export monetary inflation overseas and put it into the world reserve where the bubble potential is an order of magnitude larger.

If the petrodollar/world reserve currency status of the US Dollar fails, or there is some dramatic move away from it, the US Dollar will have at most 3 months (after that 'event') before a severe monetary crisis here in the US. (I usually say 6 weeks to 3 months). If the petrodollar/world reserve currency status of the US Dollar does not fail, then math is still math and even exporting the bubble it will still reach critical mass within 5 to 10 years. I'm not the only one who can do the math, so I expect that the rest of the world will not wait 5-10 years to unhook...but if they DO, and if the petrodollar DOES keep surviving indefinitely, then the collapse of the US Dollar in 5-10 years will take down the entire planet...or at least all those countries still trading primarily in dollars.

So yeah, there is an unpredictable human element to this: the endurance or failure of the petrodollar. I expected something like the India/China move around May instead of July. I expected by August, that the first country would start migrating all their international transactions from the dollar to the new currency (in this case the Renminbi) and that a second major country would join them. That may take until September/October now. It remains technically possible that the world will keep hanging on to the dollar anyway, but I consider that unlikely, since right now THEY are getting hurt by the Fed's monetary inflation even more than we are, and I don't think that the rest of the world is going to sit idle while the US slowly feeds them arsenic.

 

[qh4dotcom]

It remains technically possible that the world will keep hanging on to the dollar anyway, but I consider that unlikely, since right now THEY are getting hurt by the Fed's monetary inflation even more than we are, and I don't think that the rest of the world is going to sit idle while the US slowly feeds them arsenic.

The rest of the world has been getting hurt by the Fed's monetary inflation/sitting idle while the US slowly feeds them arsenic for the past 43 years....what makes you think that will change anytime soon?

I mean, look at all the trash talk being directed at Putin....if he wanted to retaliate, he would let the ruble appreciate...sell of all his US treasuries....and he would call his buddies in China and ask them to do the same.

It seems to me the rest of the world has to become as educated as you are about monetary policy for something to happen.

 

[56ktarget]

When will the world learn to stop listening to these libertarian crackpots about doomsday predictions?

 

[AFTFNJ]

When will the world learn to stop listening to these libertarian crackpots about doomsday predictions?

When the lunatic financial system called "free markets" collapses in the world?

 

[CaptUSA]

Trying to predict long range economic conditions is like trying to predict the weather. Economists are essentially weathermen; only with far less precise instrumentation of measurement.

Markets are natural occurrences. Sure, you can dam up rivers for a while, but eventually the dam is going to burst. It's just a matter of time. And every time the water spills over the dam, it costs more and more to fortify. And since the costs of those fortifications put more pressure on the dam, they just create more leaks. At some point, there will come a time when the leaks can't be repaired fast enough and the whole thing will come down, but there are so many variables going into this that it is impossible to accurately predict the timing.

 

[buenijo]

People act on their beliefs. Since people in general are easily deceived and manipulated, then I think this train wreck can last a lot longer than most understand. Also, perhaps many countries perceive it to be in their interest to keep the system going. After all, decades of operation under this system has shaped the very capital structure of their economies since WW2. Any sudden shock would be disruptive, and politicians (at least those in power) don't like the boat to get rocked. Personally, I've come to expect a more gradual decline of the dollar, and one that is coordinated with the other countries - and over a lengthy period. This economic collapse has been going on for a long while, and it will continue for many more years. Sure, there will be bumps along the road with periods of increased volatility, but I do not see a single major event taking things down. If nobody wants it, then it will not likely take place.

Some speculation - perhaps all this is orchestrated and things are going exactly as planned. Maybe the contention between the major economies is an illusion. Perhaps the major economies of the world are de facto united, and we're being herded into a global feudal society where the American serfs are just as "equal" as all the others. Being able to effectively create gold out of nothing (i.e. issuing a global reserve currency that is wholly debased) for so long can buy a lot of resources and loyalty. Consider how many have been duped with the 9/11 false flag operation (along with its sophistication). Perhaps a lot of what we think we know just ain't so. This would sure put a damper on predictions.

 

[willwash]

The timing of the (dollar) crash all depends on how much QE we can absorb. The fed is not going to stop until the dollar crashes. I don't see it taking more than a couple years.

QE is kind of like titrating a buffer, if you know chemistry at all. The pH just creeps up or down ever so slowly until the buffer capacity is reached, then, all of the sudden, one more drop sends the ph 3 or 4 orders of magnitude up or down.

 

[willwash]

It all hinges on the petrodollar, which is far far more unpredictable than the basic math of currency inflation. We would already see a DOA dollar if not for their ability to export monetary inflation overseas and put it into the world reserve where the bubble potential is an order of magnitude larger.

If the petrodollar/world reserve currency status of the US Dollar fails, or there is some dramatic move away from it, the US Dollar will have at most 3 months (after that 'event') before a severe monetary crisis here in the US. (I usually say 6 weeks to 3 months). If the petrodollar/world reserve currency status of the US Dollar does not fail, then math is still math and even exporting the bubble it will still reach critical mass within 5 to 10 years. I'm not the only one who can do the math, so I expect that the rest of the world will not wait 5-10 years to unhook...but if they DO, and if the petrodollar DOES keep surviving indefinitely, then the collapse of the US Dollar in 5-10 years will take down the entire planet...or at least all those countries still trading primarily in dollars.

So yeah, there is an unpredictable human element to this: the endurance or failure of the petrodollar. I expected something like the India/China move around May instead of July. I expected by August, that the first country would start migrating all their international transactions from the dollar to the new currency (in this case the Renminbi) and that a second major country would join them. That may take until September/October now. It remains technically possible that the world will keep hanging on to the dollar anyway, but I consider that unlikely, since right now THEY are getting hurt by the Fed's monetary inflation even more than we are, and I don't think that the rest of the world is going to sit idle while the US slowly feeds them arsenic.

Gunny, how India and China have nukes, but what happens when the little guy tries to dump the dollar? Can he not expect to see a US aircraft carrier off his coast within a month or two? Do you think these small nations will enter into military alliances with China?