+1776
I am a pessimist and I do NOT see Ron Paul winning in 2012. However Ron Paul should run for 2012. And Gary Johnson should run as well.
The 2008 campaign was the first beam of light that fell on the GOP neocon influenced sheeple base and it did convert a few of them - even if it was a small minority. But that was because Dr. Paul was mocked, ignored and marginalized by the GOP. But it will be very tough to treat two primary candidates the same way they treated Ron Paul. It will be a massive shock to the teaocon "constitutionalists" to see their favorite candidate (Huckabee or Palin or Mittens) be accused of being a big government statist by not just one but two primary contenders. But I presume that neither GJ nor RP will get the nomination. It will go to another statist from the merry band of Bushtards and (Marco Rubio will be the VP nominee) and he/she WILL LOSE AGAINST Obama in the general. That should also doom Rubio's career - being part of a failed ticket is rarely good.
That should wake up enough teaocons (a good portion of whom will also become irrelevant by 2020) to see that the indies will never vote for a Bushtard and that the only way for the GOP to remain relevant is if they turn libertarian-esque (not just in rhetoric but in leadership and principles as well) and it should set up a good chance for Rand to win the presidential election in 2016 or 2020. Rand obviously being a "tea party" guy will be palatable to recovering and semi-recovering teaocons by then.
The only thing I am worried about is that 2016 (or 2020) is too much time for Obama and co. to fuck things up permanently in this country.