Gary Johnson reaches 25% in NM, 23% in Utah, 19% in Alaska, 19% in SD, 17% Kansas...

Jesus, Trump is either insane or a genius.

Hate him or love him, he thinks outside of the box and plays the game in a totally unpredictable way and I think that is healthy for US politics from the anti-establishment sense.

I agree. If the story is true, I'm sure it's strategic on Trump's part rather than him truly standing by his beliefs about 3rd parties from 2000, which served his interests at the time, but from Trump's standpoint it makes all the sense in the world. Hillary wants a 1 on 1 debate with Trump and is generally the favorite in the election, but the debate can't be held if Trump refuses and they'd have reason to believe he would since he skipped the Iowa debate protesting Megyn Kelly. Out of the two of them, it'd likely help Trump more if neither gets enough electoral votes because the Republican House would decide, plus, Trump insisting on 3rd party inclusion only adds to his anti-establishment, populist credibility as the majority of voters want Johnson in the debates. it also prevents Trump from looking like a hypocrite based on his past statements made when he was a member of the Reform Party. Meanwhile, if Clinton objects, it makes her look even more like the establishment villain. Finally, most polls have shown Johnson taking slightly more votes from Clinton.

Regardless of what happens, Trump's campaign has been a net positive. I'm still not thrilled because I believe it hurt Rand, but he has shaken things up and I do support the idea of being represented by people who aren't career politicians.
 
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.

It's the middle of next month for this one. He's not going to make it. But they are taking each one individually, so if he rises he could make the second or third theoretically.



Interesting. I'd like to see that from a reputable news source before I get excited about it.
 
There are several dozen scenarios where the election goes to a vote in the House of Representatives. Something like the below could play out, based on the poll numbers above.

b1Zpk.png

the debates are pivotal. the above map is how Trump can battle back. we are inside the two month sprint.
 
If Gary Johnson and Jill Stein appear in the debates due to trump's insistence, I will have to accept that something good came out of the trump candidacy.
 
CNN has him at seven percent this week...

You're always good with these numbers, ZippyJuan. How about you though? Will you be voting for Clinton? Or will you be like some and stick with The Bern? How about your other liberal and progressive friends? What's the pulse with you guys? Just wondering. Thanks!
 
A new poll from Quinnipiac, announced today, has similar numbers to the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll, for the states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Only those four states were polled.

North Carolina -- Johnson: 15% (WP/SM had 10%)
Ohio -- Johnson: 14% (WP/SM had 13%)
Pennsylvania -- Johnson: 9% (WP/SM had 12%)
Florida -- Johnson: 8% (WP/SM had 10%)
 
A new poll from Quinnipiac, announced today, has similar numbers to the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll, for the states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Only those four states were polled.

North Carolina -- Johnson: 15% (WP/SM had 10%)
Ohio -- Johnson: 14% (WP/SM had 13%)
Pennsylvania -- Johnson: 9% (WP/SM had 12%)
Florida -- Johnson: 8% (WP/SM had 10%)

He's taking most of his support from Clinton, some from Trump and some from the pool of undecideds.
 
The Google Consumer Survey poll of August 17th through the 23rd is a little old now, but the numbers in that poll confirm that the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is not the first state poll to record Johnson at or above 20% in New Mexico. The sample voter size in the GCS poll is a little suspect for me; polling just 62 people in North Dakota doesn't cut it, IMO. Especially compared to the huge samples taken in the WaPo/SM poll. But the GCS poll does seem to show how Gary got from polling fairly well in 17 states to polling alongside Clump in several states.

At that rate of growth, Johnson would take an electorate in Maine, one in Nebraska, and take several more states: New Mexico, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas.

Google Consumer Survey (8/17-8/23):

[TABLE="width: 355"]
[TR]
[TD]State[/TD]
[TD]Sample[/TD]
[TD]Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Clinton[/TD]
[TD]Trump[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Mexico[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]201[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hawaii[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]62[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alaska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]270[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maine[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]164[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]South Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]245[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wyoming[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virginia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]599[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]512[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]530[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nebraska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]174[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rhode Island[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]73[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,668[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]578[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]196[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Montana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]118[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Delaware[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]101[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vermont[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Indiana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]631[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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