Gary Johnson reaches 25% in NM, 23% in Utah, 19% in Alaska, 19% in SD, 17% Kansas...

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RJ Liberty

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Here are the numbers, based on the latest Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll:

[TABLE="width: 363"]
[TR]
[TD]State[/TD]
[TD]Sample[/TD]
[TD]Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Clinton[/TD]
[TD]Trump[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Mexico[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,788[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]722[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]South Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]809[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alaska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]989[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]716[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]741[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,428[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]549[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iowa[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,875[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]722[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wyoming[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]727[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rhode Island[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]625[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,054[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maine[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]715[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nebraska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]983[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,218[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,801[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Montana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]999[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Indiana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,294[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virginia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,468[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,041[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,543[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,428[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,026[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,687[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nevada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,776[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,034[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Connecticut[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,053[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]West Virginia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]698[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Delaware[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]637[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,861[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,574[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Illinois[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,599[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,167[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]765[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oregon[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]877[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Texas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5,147[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vermont[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]550[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]South Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]894[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,552[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,287[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,021[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maryland[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,199[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Louisiana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]871[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]958[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Jersey[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]912[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New York[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,405[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]732[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hawaii[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]546[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]823[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


At this rate, Johnson has a serious chance to take several states. Utah and New Mexico, and possibly Alaska, Kansas, and South Dakota. Nebraska and Maine may also end up giving him some electoral college votes, based on their split electoral votes. This would likely prevent both Clinton or Trump from reaching 270.
 
Last edited:
Johnson @ 33 would take New Mexico which would keep it out of Dem hands is my guess .
 
oyarde said:
Johnson @ 33 would take New Mexico which would keep it out of Dem hands is my guess .
Click to expand...

Roughly, I think 33% or 32% would do it. Stein is on the ballot in NM, which will draw liberal voters away from Clinton as well. 9% of New Mexico voters are still undecided.
 
Trump looks like he is close on these numbers in Penn. , Wisc., Mich , Nev and Maine and the Dems look like gaining steam over normal in NH , NY , CT and Virginia . Johnson looks consistent throughout and should be able to win NM . The Pubs have to have Texas , Fla , Oh , Ga , NC and a lot more .
 
Johnson needs to try and make a push in Utah too. Clinton is not going to win that state but seeing her in third there would be nice .
 
oyarde said:
Johnson needs to try and make a push in Utah too. Clinton is not going to win that state but seeing her in third there would be nice .
Click to expand...

It would indeed. :D The good news is that Johnson is seriously campaigning in Utah, as well. CNN reported today that Gary is running TV ads in Utah, New Mexico, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Colorado and New Hampshire. He's been staging rallies in those states, as well as Iowa and Wisconsin, as well. And radio ads are running in quite a few western states. He's doing quite well, despite getting only 33 seconds of coverage on the broadcast networks... for the whole campaign!
 
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.
 
eleganz said:
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.
Click to expand...

It's 20 days until the first CPD debate... He definitely needs to be in the debates, since the broadcast networks refuse to give him any airtime. These latest numbers are Perot-like numbers, so we'll see what happens.
 
there a story about trump not debating unless johnson is included
 
Chester Copperpot said:
there a story about trump not debating unless johnson is included
Click to expand...
Yep! I saw that one.
Donald Trump Will Not Debate Hillary, if Gary Johnson not Allowed to Participate

The Donald Trump for President 2016 campaign will pull out of the scheduled September 26th debate between Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Trump, unless third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are also allowed to participate.

This is a tactical move believed by most analysts to help Trump, because the third-party candidates seem to drain more support from Clinton then they do from Trump.

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced its 15 percent threshold last year, and last month it announced the set of five national polls it would use to measure each candidate's support.
Click to expand...
 
There are several dozen scenarios where the election goes to a vote in the House of Representatives. Something like the below could play out, based on the poll numbers above.

b1Zpk.png
 
Interesting. Even if Gary is not included in the debates, if he dedicates all his resources and time to campaigning in just 3 or 4 states, he could win them.
 
Sujan said:
Interesting. Even if Gary is not included in the debates, if he dedicates all his resources and time to campaigning in just 3 or 4 states, he could win them.
Click to expand...
Indeed. Between the Johnson campaign and the four superPACs, they could pull off turning several states gold, based on these very strong poll numbers. There are now only eight states where Gary's polling below 10%.
 
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?
 
JohnM said:
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?
Click to expand...

SurveyMonkey (WaPo) is an online poll. They didn't use the usual Washington Post survey methods. They aren't as accurate.

How the survey was conducted

The Post-SurveyMonkey poll used an online-based sampling methodology that differs from previous polls by The Washington Post. Those are telephone surveys based on random samples of cellular and landline phones.

The new poll was conducted online as part of SurveyMonkey’s 2016 Election Tracking project, which recruits respondents from the large number people who take polls on the company’s do-it-yourself survey platform, roughly three million each day. A subsample of respondents to this range of surveys — which includes formal and informal polls of community groups, companies, churches and other organizations — were invited to participate in a second survey with the prompt, “Where do you stand on current events? Share your opinion.” The survey was not advertised on any website, so individuals could not “click-in” in an effort to influence results. A survey invitation could be used only once.
Click to expand...

A survey of people who do online surveys- not a random sample of the general population. I wouldn't give it much weight.

The Post has generally avoided citing results from non-probability Internet-based surveys such as SurveyMonkey, as it is impossible to draw a random sample of Internet users, and random selection is a widely accepted standard in drawing representative samples of any population.
Click to expand...

As former governor of New Mexico it is not surprising that he does best in that state.
 
Last edited:
CNN has him at seven percent this week- Fox has him at nine. They are two of the five the debate organizers are looking at.

http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/06/new-7-showing-in-cnn-poll-almost-certain

CNN/ORC this morning came out with its first national presidential poll in more than month, and the results are terrible for Gary Johnson's fading hopes of getting into this fall's presidential debates. The Libertarian nominee pulled just 7 percent in the survey, down from 9 percent in the same poll at the end of July, and 13 percent—his highest-ever showing nationwide—two weeks prior to that.

CNN/ORC is one of the Big Five national polls that will be averaged by the technically nonpartisan, effectively bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) in "mid-September" to assess which candidates will be taking part in the initial Sept. 26 event. Since another of the Big Five, Fox News, dropped a 9-spot on Johnson last week, that means that the other three polls would need to average 19.7 percent for Johnson to get to the unreasonably high 15 percent threshold. As it stands now, if the CPD were making its decision today, the Libertarian nominee would be at 8.8 percent across the selected five polls. Which, while being the most impressive third-party showing since Ross Perot in 1992, would still fall far short.
Click to expand...

On Meet the Press over the weekend, Democratic presidential primary runner-up Bernie Sanders said that the CPD's 15 percent threshold is "probably too high." A spate of recent national polls show that Americans agree, including a Suffolk University/USA Survey last week showing 76 percent of Americans desiring third-party candidates be included in the debates. Unless that broad sentiment is converted into fantastical amounts of political pressure over the next two weeks, or one of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump suddenly demand his inclusion, Johnson almost certainly will not make it into the first presidential debate.
Click to expand...

Pew Poll out this week has him at ten percent. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/us/politics/gary-johnson-libertarian-third-party.html?_r=0
 
Last edited:
eleganz said:
Jesus, Trump is either insane or a genius.

Hate him or love him, he thinks outside of the box and plays the game in a totally unpredictable way and I think that is healthy for US politics from the anti-establishment sense.
Click to expand...

its how he gets his media time for free advertising... he knows how to control the narrative and make it interesting for all the TMZ brain dead zombies out there
 
JohnM said:
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?
Click to expand...


538.com and RCP are poll aggregators: they combine results of the last few polls, rather than reporting the latest poll. This is why the numbers for RCP and 538 are "significantly lower" than the results of a single poll. In New Mexico, for example, they combine the results of this poll with results from a poll taken back on August 19th, which is clearly a bit outdated.

Above, Zippyjuan says you shouldn't give this poll much weight, because it was only an online poll. But this wasn't a self-selected survey, and the sample sizes are very large: much, much larger than the sample sizes used for the CNN and Fox News polls he quotes. And 538.com considered the survey accurate enough to be used in its poll aggregator.
 
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