GALLOP is OUR PROBLEM

[ghemminger]

GALLOP just went off in my head like light bulb today - EVERYTHING flows from these polling numbers?????

And what are they based on???? Previous models! Polls=MSM=$$$=1st Tier

 

[NPursuit357]

I'm pretty sure there are numerous people out there like myself that are in the 18-35 range who have never voted, and or don't have a land line. I've always been a major political junkie, but I have never believed in someone enough to vote for them. I'm in NH and most people don't have a clue who they are going to choose. There is still a lot of time left, but a lot of work to do.

 

[ronpaulitician]

I'm sorry, the Iowa Straw Poll results don't agree with you. RP received 9% of the votes.

Tancredo received more than that.

Since he is the only antiwar candidate, more than likely he would have retained his 9% if Fred, Rudy, and McCain were there.

That's if you believe Fred's, Rudy's, and McCain's supporters went out and paid $35 to vote for one of the other candidates.

More than that, you have to use deductive logic to understand the reason why we are polling lower. Its already been repeated over and over, but I'll be a broken record.

If Gallup has us polling between 1 and 4 percent, our actual support is probably 4 percent (which is the average after doubling the Gallup numbers).

In other words you are saying because they are not on the gallup poll list of Republicans, they will not vote. Absurd.

I'm saying that the Gallup poll is closer to the truth than many Paul fans want to admit.

I'm saying that in order to win, Paul will have to do better in the Gallup poll, because many of the people that are on the fence will not support (both financially and emotionally) a candidate that they don't think has a chance.

 

[Mister Grieves]

They have to actually include RP as an option in 100% of the polls in order to get an accurate indicator as to where he stands. From what I've heard from some, that hasn't been the case.

 

[Lizza]

I'm pretty sure there are numerous people out there like myself that are in the 18-35 range who have never voted, and or don't have a land line. I've always been a major political junkie, but I have never believed in someone enough to vote for them. I'm in NH and most people don't have a clue who they are going to choose. There is still a lot of time left, but a lot of work to do.

I totally agree with you...I am in that same range and have the same no land line problem....and haven't ever voted...as I didn't ever seen anyone who was worth voting for! The lesser of the two evils were still evil!

 

[NPursuit357]

I'm saying that in order to win, Paul will have to do better in the Gallup poll, because many of the people that are on the fence will not support (both financially and emotionally) a candidate that they don't think has a chance.

Normally I would agree with this, but the war is bringing a lot of younger voters out this time around. I don't believe the younger crowd gives a damn whether he's considered electable or not. They will fight for the person they believe in. I believe his actual numbers are higher than Gallup shows, but who really knows. I don't think we will have a clue until Iowa and NH. It will either be celebration time, or time to get really drunk.

 

[ronpaulitician]

Normally I would agree with this, but the war is bringing a lot of younger voters out this time around. I don't believe the younger crowd gives a damn whether he's considered electable or not. They will fight for the person they believe in. I believe his actual numbers are higher than Gallup shows, but who really knows. I don't think we will have a clue until Iowa and NH. It will either be celebration time, or time to get really drunk.

As much as I enjoy seeing so many young people in the RP crowds, I don't think they'll be able to outvote the 95-99% of the "established" Republican voters that register as non-Paul voters in the Gallup polls.

I sure am still hopeful that the combination of disgruntled GOP voters, independents and Democrats who will register Republican in closed primaries, and the young voters who have never voted before, will be able to get Paul the win, but I just do not believe we're even halfway there, and must admit being at least somewhat disappointed (as I'm sure the Paul camp was after the Iowa Straw Poll results, no matter what they say). I'd hoped to see the Gallup numbers climb higher over the last few weeks/months, at least to 5%.

 

[paulitics]

Tancredo received more than that..

What does that have to do with Ron Paul getting 9%?

That's if you believe Fred's, Rudy's, and McCain's supporters went out and paid $35 to vote for one of the other candidates.

they didn't pay anything unless they were a RP supporter (free bus ride and tickets from everyone else) 2nd of all, by those guys not being there it diluted the pro war vote. Are you telling me if Giuliani, McCain and Thompson dropped out of the general election today that someone like Romney would not pick alot of his votes? The answer is yes, and so would Tancredo, and Huckabee,

Paul would remain close to the same if there are 3 or 100 people running.

If Gallup has us polling between 1 and 4 percent, our actual support is probably 4 percent (which is the average after doubling the Gallup numbers). .

I can agree with that (I estimate 2.5) but that is a big deal if he is at 5%, like in NH, which means he is really around 10% or more. if we win NH, the ballgame changes dramatically.

I'm saying that the Gallup poll is closer to the truth than many Paul fans want to admit. .

I don't see many people thinking he is at like 20%or anything, just that you have to take into consideration the other factors like libertarians, independents etc. It seemed like you were disagreeing with that.

I'm saying that in order to win, Paul will have to do better in the Gallup poll, because many of the people that are on the fence will not support (both financially and emotionally) a candidate that they don't think has a chance.

I agree that we have to do better, but guess what....we are likely never to do great in the polls (more than 5%). but even if he is at 5% come January, I still think he has a shot to win, esp in NH which changes everything. You need to explain why he can still win with the flawed polls, instead of giving legitamacy to it.
Otherwise people will hesitate to support him with money and their vote.

 

[ronpaulitician]

What does that have to do with Ron Paul getting 9%?

Tancredo's Gallup numbers.

They didn't pay anything unless they were a RP supporter (free bus ride and tickets from everyone else)

a) Ron Paul bought tickets as well for his supporters.
b) Do you really think a lot of Giuliani, McCain, etc voters went to vote for other candidates?

I can agree with that (I estimate 2.5) but that is a big deal if he is at 5%, like in NH, which means he is really around 10% or more. if we win NH, the ballgame changes dramatically.

Very true. I'm just saying that we have to face the fact that the kind of voters Paul needs to pull off the win, the ones that are still sitting on the fence, are likely to be influenced by the Gallup poll. We can argue all day about how it does or doesn't reflect the true support he has, but in the end, it'll be important to somehow make an impact on those Gallup numbers.

I agree that we have to do better, but guess what....we are likely never to do great in the polls (more than 5%).

I still think we will. I personally belief that if we can just cross that 5% barrier soon (not that much time left), those doubters that are sitting on the fence will join in, which will make his numbers climb steadily from then on.

You need to explain why he can still win with the flawed polls, instead of giving legitamacy to it. Otherwise people will hesitate to support him with money and their vote.

I've used the "only polls landlines, only polls people who have recently voted in Republican elections, only polls people who are willing to sit through tens of questions" explanation when people question Paul's electability. It doesn't seem to get a lot of traction with the doubters.

I'm hoping for excellent third quarter fundraising numbers. THAT will convince a lot of the doubters.

 

[paulitics]

RonPaulitican: I agree with everyone you said but:

A. Ron bought tickets for some of his voters, not all, and he did not have bus rides like the others.

B. And yes, I do believe that neocons went to vote for other neocons. Do this thought experiment again. If everyone dropped out of the Republican race with the exception of those who went to the straw poll, do you think Ron Paul's numbers would significantly move up? I think Huckabee and Romney, Brownback, etc would absorb most of the votes leaving Paul pretty flat. Understand as well that Tancredo, Brownback etc lived there in Iowa, Brownback and Thommy Thompson was polling at 5% vs Paul at 2%. I will concede that Tancredo and Huckabee beat expectations, but so did RP and this contradicts the 2% poll.

I'm hope your right about Gallup numbers rising. This is where the skeptic in me comes out. FUndraising should be interesting.

 

[ItsTime]

awww crap I saw on CNN an analyst say RP is more like 10 to 15% man I should have watched more closely to give his name.

 

[EvoPro]

awww crap I saw on CNN an analyst say RP is more like 10 to 15% man I should have watched more closely to give his name.

Nice!

RonPaulitician, I think you give these polls too much credit.

in order to win, Paul will have to do better in the Gallup poll, because many of the people that are on the fence will not support (both financially and emotionally) a candidate that they don't think has a chance.

For one, they only count previous Republicans. The majority of RP supporters are not previously Republican. People will not hold so much weight on these "polls" once they realize this. Maybe you should be telling these fence-sitters this rather than telling them how accurate you think these "polls" are.

 

[theblatanttruth]

Simple solution to a simple problem:

Due to the growth of cellular technology and the boom in it's sales in recent years, coupled with the factor that many young and tech-savvy Americans tend to find it more cost, work, and play productive over landlines, and those who don't need landlines for broadband and have good cell coverage at home (which almost EVERYONE has these days - I do, and I live in satan's ass crack here in southern WV) in 95% of the case, will drop the land line company.

This issue has been stirring now for the last several years in the form of the Emergency 911 system. They've started to phase out the problem by enabling most new phones to be GPS trackable, but it doesn't end there, soon there will be a nation-wide registry of all cellular phone owner/registrar information to compliment the Emergency 911 response activity, and to be used by law enforcement as it now uses landline information today (records, search, etc.)

Once all this progresses, organizations like Gallop will then be able to poll ALL telephone enabled citizens for it's surveying, by being able to search, organize, and find specific polling requirements for each type of poll.

We're in a catch-22 here with this being the "transitioning period" of this upgrade, and we're getting dry-f*cked as a result. Until someone can figure something out to solve it now we're screwed with Gallop.

Refer to this topic: http://ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=18023

And tell me if you think the statistics shown here wouldn't apply to Ron Paul's general support nationwides' statistics, and go fairly hand in hand?

 

[dude58677]

Ron Paul raised $100,000 in a singel event in a singel day from individuals at the Texas Straw Poll. His support is real.

 

[Proemio]

​

Gallup, etc. are an important wheel in the opinion-shaping business (propaganda) for the establishment.

Yes, surveys can be very accurate, but that accuracy can only be verified by outsiders once in a while, such as comparing their projection to actual vote counting after elections or referenda. This earned credibility can then be leveraged over the rest of the time, where they can basically make up numbers out of thin air. The one paying for the survey, still gets the correct numbers and react accordingly, akin to two sets of books.

Can this be proven for yesterday's poll? Not without a whistleblower, but...

Perhaps the best known example:

http://www.mises.org/misesreview_detail.aspx?control=122&sortorder=issue

The polls that showed American support for violations of neutrality were rigged by British agents. "British intelligence had `penetrated' the Gallup organization.... British intelligence officer David Ogilvy later wrote about his days at Gallup: `I could not have had a better boss than Dr. Gallup. His confidence in me was such that I do not recall his ever reading any of the reports I wrote in his name'" (p. 75). By careful manipulation of the questions asked, results could be contrived to order. "In 1940 and 1941, BSC [British Security Coordination] rigged a series of polls...to project the notion that the members of prominent organizations were pro-British, avidly in favor of intervention, and intensely antagonistic toward America First"​

I contend that the Ron Paul Revolution is viewed by the 'other side' as at least as a serious a threat to their interests as the situation described above, because this time, they not only risk to lose "the enforcer" of their global protection racket, but the Fed (and all that flows from it) as well.

The 'scientific' polls will reflect the wishes of the plutocracy - lagging about 10-20 points behind reality - until shortly before November08 - then Dr. Paul becomes President Paul...

 

[Thunderbolt]

...

 

[NPursuit357]

As much as I enjoy seeing so many young people in the RP crowds, I don't think they'll be able to outvote the 95-99% of the "established" Republican voters that register as non-Paul voters in the Gallup polls.

I sure am still hopeful that the combination of disgruntled GOP voters, independents and Democrats who will register Republican in closed primaries, and the young voters who have never voted before, will be able to get Paul the win, but I just do not believe we're even halfway there, and must admit being at least somewhat disappointed (as I'm sure the Paul camp was after the Iowa Straw Poll results, no matter what they say). I'd hoped to see the Gallup numbers climb higher over the last few weeks/months, at least to 5%.

I agree he probably will not be able to outvote the "established" republicans. I'm hoping for at least a 2nd or 3rd place in NH. Enough to keep the momentum, and I believe that may be achievable. I agree with the 2nd part of your statement.

 

[NPursuit357]

No one knows who he is.

It's sad isn't it? Giuliani is polling so high, and I don't even know how this guy can even get an R next to his name. The sheeple are following along the path of the known.

 

[paulitics]

I agree he probably will not be able to outvote the "established" republicans. I'm hoping for at least a 2nd or 3rd place in NH. Enough to keep the momentum, and I believe that may be achievable. I agree with the 2nd part of your statement.

You should hope for a 1st place finish in NH, or the campaign is over. NH is make or break. We are showing up as 5% in NH, but are probably more like 10 to 15% in reality becuase of all the libertarians and independents not getting polled. We can win the state with 25% to 30%.
Unfortunately very few people are willing to do what it takes to get us there, and don't seem to be too enthused about working NH.

 

[NPursuit357]

You should hope for a 1st place finish in NH, or the campaign is over. NH is make or break. We are showing up as 5% in NH, but are probably more like 10 to 15% in reality becuase of all the libertarians and independents not getting polled. We can win the state with 25% to 30%.
Unfortunately very few people are willing to do what it takes to get us there, and don't seem to be too enthused about working NH.

Obviously we all want to see a 1st place finish in NH. What exactly is not happening in NH, that you think needs to be happening. I see people working for the campaign. Is it just not on the level you are noticing in other states?