Fundraising% vs votes % for Dr. Paul by state
- Thread starter fez2008
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I cannot understand why there are no ND stops. May be they already think it in the bag or .. I just don't understand it. Even John King on CNN said Romney camp thinks it will come second to Dr. Paul in ND.
There are 4 stops in ID, but it is 23% LDS... simple math tells its nearly impossible to beat Romney there. I hope they can pull it off in Idaho, with total 7 stops that will be made there by Mar 5th
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GHoeberX
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Great stuff!
I guess it is the difference between a sure thing win and setting up multiple solid finishes.
If things go well this could be the result:
Paul
ND
AK
VT
Newt
GA
Sant
TN
OK
Mitt
OH
VA (Paul 2nd)
MA
ID (Paul 2nd)
That would give us some momentum heading into the winner take all states. Make it hard for Romney to secure the nomination. And definately help with Paul delegate turnout.
andrew1229649
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We are averaging about 3% under fundraising percentage. I would like to know what the other candidates are averaging based on fundraising percentage...if they are doing about the same we could crunch the numbers and go ahead and project wins and places. OP where did you get the numbers from?
rpwi
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Here is a google graph of how much each state has donated has a % of their total population:
Bright green is best...bright red is worst.
I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...aps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state
Bright green is best...bright red is worst.
I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...aps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state
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Warmon
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Man, this is some good stuff!! +rep for your hard work!
Here is a google graph of how much each state has donated has a % of their total population:
Bright green is best...bright red is worst.
I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...aps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state
This is wonderful rpwi. Edited the original post to include the maps with the numbers. We should probably merge these two threads.
andrew, source included at end of original post. Problems with using this method for other candidates:
1) Their support is not consistent (ex Santorum will have very low numbers and Perry very high over 2011)
2) Their donations are not small (ex: Romney)
Nevertheless, it will be interesting
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PolicyReader
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Idaho, just changed over from a primary to a caucus and Paul polls quite strongly in the state (and Romney is counting on the strong LDS GOTV effort to give him a leg up). ID has a pop of 1,584,985 with 2008 Primary Results showing a turn out of 125,570. Paul took 23.72% of that that Primary vote.
Pauls support has grown since 2008 and his voters are less likely to be pulled away by the current split field (where as the other votes in the race likely are as has been shown).
The greatest threat to Paul in ID is an inadequate GOTV effort so I'm all for the Ad buys and the visits the Paul campaign has and is directing there. I even personally know LDS voters who are turning out For Paul there so while I'm sure the majority of the LDS vote will go Romney results are not a given by any means.
(of course some folks have said I'm too interested in the Nomination Winning Delegates and not interested enough of the straw vote so there's where my focus is /shrug)
Really if Paul can keep it tight in the Southern enclaves of the state (which border Utah) he'll likely leverage the norther (which borders his winnings in WA) to come out on top even in a straw poll scenario. How competitive that straw vote is will weigh heavily on how effectively he keeps things tight in the somewhat more populace south. Also remember than Paul does well on average in more rural areas and Romney consistently pools more poorly within those precincts. So when you consider the map it's more clear how to envision a Paul Win in Idaho
ps~click the Results link above for an interactive map of 2008
Pauls support has grown since 2008 and his voters are less likely to be pulled away by the current split field (where as the other votes in the race likely are as has been shown).
The greatest threat to Paul in ID is an inadequate GOTV effort so I'm all for the Ad buys and the visits the Paul campaign has and is directing there. I even personally know LDS voters who are turning out For Paul there so while I'm sure the majority of the LDS vote will go Romney results are not a given by any means.
(of course some folks have said I'm too interested in the Nomination Winning Delegates and not interested enough of the straw vote so there's where my focus is /shrug)
Really if Paul can keep it tight in the Southern enclaves of the state (which border Utah) he'll likely leverage the norther (which borders his winnings in WA) to come out on top even in a straw poll scenario. How competitive that straw vote is will weigh heavily on how effectively he keeps things tight in the somewhat more populace south. Also remember than Paul does well on average in more rural areas and Romney consistently pools more poorly within those precincts. So when you consider the map it's more clear how to envision a Paul Win in Idaho
ps~click the Results link above for an interactive map of 2008
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PolicyReader
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Phone From Home thread bump 
D.A.S.
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So it looks like we badly underperformed in AK and ND and overperformed dramatically in VA, while TN, OK, and ID number pretty much perfectly pegged the final outcome.
It looks like Idaho was the real error in the Campaign's strategy because the strength of Mormon vote was underestimated, but I guess it's not always possible to tell going in. Maybe their internal polls suggested Idaho is winnable. The only problem is Mormons turnout religiously for Romney, and that must have skewed the polls pretty badly.
It looks like Idaho was the real error in the Campaign's strategy because the strength of Mormon vote was underestimated, but I guess it's not always possible to tell going in. Maybe their internal polls suggested Idaho is winnable. The only problem is Mormons turnout religiously for Romney, and that must have skewed the polls pretty badly.
Updated original post with Super Tuesday numbers. Also highlighted March contests + Wisconsin. Everything except ND/AK/IA are closely correlated. I speculate this is a combination of GOTV, not campaigning enough and more importantly the Santorum surges in IA/ND/AK.
The next four: KS, HI, AL, MS (Mar 10-13) are good states
After that play for PRico (Mar 18), ignore MO/LA/IL (Mar 20-24) and concentrate on WI (Apr 3)
The next four: KS, HI, AL, MS (Mar 10-13) are good states
After that play for PRico (Mar 18), ignore MO/LA/IL (Mar 20-24) and concentrate on WI (Apr 3)
ID is a strategic blunder, with so many stops in ND, it might have been much closer although it must have been really hard to beat the Santorum surge
Not in the original source link. May be from the FEC website. Will try
We had better move fast....Donations are collapsing, check out the RP Daily Donation Tracker, http://schiff.depositwiz.com/ and it looks like via POLITICO that the Endorse Liberty Super Pac just pulled the plug on Ron.
Some information about the territories (not very meaningful due to the small number of donors):
Guam (total 10 donors): 727/4727 = 15%
Romney 2250=250+1000+500+500
MBach 750 =500+250
Tpaw 1000 =1000
RP 727 =325+201+201
Puerto Rico: 902/80702 = 1%
Tpaw 69000=5000+5000+2500+2500+2500+11*2500+7*2500+4*1500+1000+3*1000+500-2500-2500
MR 8450=2500+1250+1250+1000+1000+1000+250+200
NG 1250=500+250+250+250
RP 902=500+201+201
RSan 550=300+250
MBac 300=300
Perry 250=250
Virgin Islands:
MR =2000+1000
HC =1000+1000+500
NG =500+250
RSan =250+250
JH =250
Guam (total 10 donors): 727/4727 = 15%
Romney 2250=250+1000+500+500
MBach 750 =500+250
Tpaw 1000 =1000
RP 727 =325+201+201
Puerto Rico: 902/80702 = 1%
Tpaw 69000=5000+5000+2500+2500+2500+11*2500+7*2500+4*1500+1000+3*1000+500-2500-2500
MR 8450=2500+1250+1250+1000+1000+1000+250+200
NG 1250=500+250+250+250
RP 902=500+201+201
RSan 550=300+250
MBac 300=300
Perry 250=250
Virgin Islands:
MR =2000+1000
HC =1000+1000+500
NG =500+250
RSan =250+250
JH =250
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