Friday Night Edition-Where does Paul finish in Iowa

[Canderson]

We'll win

We never lose support.

Dedication to the cause + the indy vote will be good for a couple of % points as will some good speeches on caucus night.

I think Ron 27% Rom 21%

The undecideds are very anti-paul though.

 

[BSU kid]

According to a local online poll in Iowa, Romney is the favorite...although I suspect that mittbots might have had a hand in his high numbers:

Romney:25%
Paul:17%
Perry:13%

hxxp://www.tamatoledonews.com/page/polls.detail/id/114/

 

[VictorB]

I'm scared of a 3rd place Santorum. Media is going to be pumping him as the latest and greatest. That said, he has no chance in NH, but it's still worries me that if we get #1, Santorum 3, he'll get more publicity than we will. I'd rather see a 3rd place Perry.

 

[seawolf]

Paul needs to finish in the top three, that is what the Campaign has said over and over again.

Of course we want to win on Tuesday evening, but not winning is not the end of the Campaign by far.

Remember in 2008 we placed fifth with 10% of the caucus vote. I firmly believe we will double that total.

This is going to be a long, long battle and remember the key is winning delegates.

 

[nyrgoal99]

My biggest concern is 3 weeks ago top 3 looked good and we were happy with it. Now everyone is thinking first.

If we get 2nd or somehow 3rd, does everyone go crazy???

I know if we get 1st the MSM will see people go crazy and donate like never before

 

[EllisIslandNJ]

I'm nervous and think the last minute surges, on top of the smears this week, mixed with the possibility of shenanigans, will cost us first place. Still, will be disappointed with anything less than first.

 

[hueylong]

Take a deep breath. Whatever happens, it will likely be solid. In other words, good.

My current theory is that I think Dr. Paul will place 1st. The implosion of Bachmann is going to give Santorum an additional boost among the Evangelicals (who are a good chunk of the undecided) and he will place 2nd. Last ditch efforts by Gingrich and Perry will lead to Romney placing a close 3rd.

We'll see if it feels different on Monday night.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

If we get 2nd or somehow 3rd, does everyone go crazy???

Of course they will. But as seawolf said:

This is going to be a long, long battle and remember the key is winning delegates.

These early states are proportional delegates, not winner-take-all. These will be mental victories more than anything, trying to change the mindset the MSM has set up of "Ron Paul can't win".

The following rule was adopted by the Republican Party back in August 2010....

"Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep2/how-to-steal-gop-nomination.html

 

[nyrgoal99]

Because of the delegates, this is going to go a long time

 

[FreeTraveler]

Yeah, we're in a marathon, not a sprint, folks. I'm betting we're in first at the first turn, BUT REMEMBER IT'S A LONG RACE FOR DELEGATES.

Four years ago, with winner-take-all, it was a whole different ball game. We can change the world this time around, regardless of how we do in any particular state.

 

[nyrgoal99]

Yeah, we're in a marathon, not a sprint, folks. I'm betting we're in first at the first turn, BUT REMEMBER IT'S A LONG RACE FOR DELEGATES.

Four years ago, with winner-take-all, it was a whole different ball game. We can change the world this time around, regardless of how we do in any particular state.

too bad every state is no proportional

 

[speciallyblend]

voted 1st

 

[nyrgoal99]

bump, keep voting

 

[freedom-maniac]

My unfounded opinion:

1. Ron Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum
4. Gingrich
5. Perry
6. Huntsman
7. Bachmann

I'm guessing that Romney and Dr. Paul will be so close that they'll have rouhgly the same number of delegates

 

[South Park Fan]

I'm inclined to say Ron Paul will win, but I cynically suspect that they will try to pull the same kind of shenanigans they pulled in Nevada last year. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't found out the results on January 3.

 

[nyrgoal99]

Appear we have a 4.5% margin of error?

 

[nyrgoal99]

I'm inclined to say Ron Paul will win, but I cynically suspect that they will try to pull the same kind of shenanigans they pulled in Nevada last year. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't found out the results on January 3.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL?

 

[opinionatedfool]

Who the heck voted 4th??? 5 people?

 

[pauladin]

My Official Prediction (I believe that Ron is going to kill on turnout):

Paul 28
Romney 21
Santorum 15
Perry 13
Gingrich 12
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 3

 

[SlowSki]

Who the heck voted 4th??? 5 people?

Trolls.