Fox News Poll - Rand in 4th with 9% (Ties 1st for 2nd choice)

[Foreigner]

Conducted May 31st to June 2nd - 5% error margin among republicans.

Full poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...k-obamas-policies-have-helped-economy-voters/

1st and 2nd choice combined:

Paul - 20%
Bush - 20%
Walker - 19%
Rubio - 18%
Carson - 15%
Cruz - 13%
Huckabee - 13%
Christie - 9%
Perry - 7%
Trump - 6%
Santorum - 6%
Fiorina - 4%
Kasich - 4%
Pataki - 4%
Jindal - 3%
Graham - 3%

Clearly this shows that there is a gap at the moment between the 7 serious contenders; Paul, Bush, Walker, Rubio, Carson, Cruz and Huckabee - and the rest. In the polls without Bush, Bush voters gets divided pretty even with the other candidates, with Rand Paul benefiting the most. That means Rand is the most popular 2nd choice of Jeb Bush voters... Hahaha! When Walker is removed, it gets evenly split as well, benefiting Marco Rubio the most.

They also polled: Would you watch a presidential debate between Hillary and X Republican. Here, the most popular matchup was the Rand - Hillary with 67%, Jeb - Hillary is the nr two matchup at 65%. They did not poll Republicans against Hillary which is a shame.

Among republicans, 19% of voters would be enthusiastic about supporting Rand, and 29% would consider it. 20% say they never would vote for him, while 29% want more info about him before making a decision.To decide if this is good numbers or bad, I combined the "would definitely support" and the "might support", and then subtracted "would never vote" from this total. This gives something akin to favorability numbers:

Rubio +37 %
Walker +36 %
Carson +31 %
Paul +28 %
Bush +27 %
Cruz +27 %
Huckabee +23 %
Fiorina +7 %
Kasich +3 %
Christie -6 %
Trump -36 %

Other candidates were not polled on this. So nothing extraordinary, but decent numbers. BTW, these favorability numbers reinforced what I said above, that there are 7 serious candidates in total.

 

[CaptUSA]

This is great news!!! I keep trying to hammer the point home about the importance of "second choice"! It's far more important than first choice.

Why?

Because as candidates begin to drop out, forced out, or polled out of the debates, their supporters will need someplace to go. Ron Paul was either your first choice, or not an option. There was no in-between. So when candidates dropped out, the swarm went onto the next flavor of the week. Rand is not having this problem.

So... When you talk to supporters of other candidates, either online or in person, just try to have them think of Rand as their second choice. It's an easier sell for you and it doesn't push them away. If Rand becomes their first choice, fine - welcome to the party, but the goal is to have Rand as their backup.

 

[SilentBull]

So Rand went up 2 points in their poll after the patriot act expiration and their attacks against him? Awesome news!

 

[rich34]

Conducted May 31st to June 2nd - 5% error margin among republicans.

Full poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...k-obamas-policies-have-helped-economy-voters/

1st and 2nd choice combined:

Paul - 20%
Bush - 20%
Walker - 19%
Rubio - 18%
Carson - 15%
Cruz - 13%
Huckabee - 13%
Christie - 9%
Perry - 7%
Trump - 6%
Santorum - 6%
Fiorina - 4%
Kasich - 4%
Pataki - 4%
Jindal - 3%
Graham - 3%

Clearly this shows that there is a gap at the moment between the 7 serious contenders; Paul, Bush, Walker, Rubio, Carson, Cruz and Huckabee - and the rest. .

I'm having a hard time believing that Carson is truly pulling the level of support that is being portrayed. Lets face it, the guy is no Ron Paul, a sitting congressman, or even an elected official. I know this criteria can attract some, but is Carson pulling these kinds of numbers outside of a fox news poll? I could see possibly Iowa, and New Hampshire, but a national poll? Everyone I've talked to has never heard of the guy. It's obvious to me that he's running to pull votes away from Rand by using the "outsider status" and is being pushed by fox news. Oh well, I think Rand will truly shine in the debates and after that will really show just who the real McCoy is. I'd say the amount of negative media Rand has faced thus far will pale in comparison to the amount of negative spin he'll receive after the first debate. This will be the only way for them to level the playing field so to speak while saving their preferred candidates tons of cash doing their dirty work for them.

 

[freejack]

Are these polls being done in parallel universes? None of them are even within the margin of error for many of the candidates.

 

[Foreigner]

Underestimate Carson at your own peril. I have no trouble understanding why he does well. First, conservatives really like conservative blacks, as it doubley rebukes Obama without giving the left an inch on their "white men" and "racist" cards.

Then his personal story - they even made a movie about him, you know. He always highlights his story in every speech, it's his number one asset. Going from the slum with no father and an illiterate mother to becoming not only a brain surgeon, but the worlds best brain surgeon. Pioneering new procedures that are standard practice today. He is the american dream embodied. And he's not polititically correct or apologizing for his positions, people like that.

Now the reason I think he will fall short in the primaries, is that he doesn't have any concrete policy proposials, or any real desire to become president. He may very well win Iowa, but will fold after South Carolina unless he wins there, as he will have archived enough to be recognized as a conservative movement leader, with his own Fox news show etc...

 

[LatinsforPaul]

Underestimate Carson at your own peril. I have no trouble understanding why he does well. First, conservatives really like conservative blacks, as it doubley rebukes Obama without giving the left an inch on their "white men" and "racist" cards.

Then his personal story - they even made a movie about him, you know. He always highlights his story in every speech, it's his number one asset. Going from the slum with no father and an illiterate mother to becoming not only a brain surgeon, but the worlds best brain surgeon. Pioneering new procedures that are standard practice today. He is the american dream embodied. And he's not polititically correct or apologizing for his positions, people like that.

Now the reason I think he will fall short in the primaries, is that he doesn't have any concrete policy proposials, or any real desire to become president. He may very well win Iowa, but will fold after South Carolina unless he wins there, as he will have archived enough to be recognized as a conservative movement leader, with his own Fox news show etc...

Would love to see Carson drop out before or after Iowa with a Rand Paul endorsement shortly after. Would say the same about Cruz, except it will take longer as he has much more in his campaign coffers to stay in the race longer.

 

[specsaregood]

Would love to see Carson drop out before or after Iowa with a Rand Paul endorsement shortly after. Would say the same about Cruz, except it will take longer as he has much more in his campaign coffers to stay in the race longer.

I wouldn't be sure about that. There has been some big secret money pushing Carson for a while, bussing people to strawpolls for a couple years now.

 

[rich34]

I wouldn't be sure about that. There has been some big secret money pushing Carson for a while, bussing people to strawpolls for a couple years now.

Ok, this would make sense.

I'm not ignoring Carson, just questioning how he would be doing so well "nationally." If he's being pushed by big money we don't know about, that would make sense. I don't question his story, but I'd say most at that level have some sort of story to explain how they got to where they are. After that comes the policies that you are pushing. Well, it should be first, but I can understand why many have to know your background as well. It can tell about your character. I do however wish that Rand was the only Dr. in the race. I really hope he reaches out to his alumni at the universities he's attended. Both Baylor and Duke have big time money Alumni, I really hope they will stand with Rand with there wallets..

 

[jbauer]

I would like to meet just ONE Jeb Bush supporter. I can't find a single one anywhere. I call BS on the support these polls give him. I honestly think they are making the numbers up to show support to someone that has none.

I've found Paul, Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and Santroum supporters. But I've yet to meet someone that says GO BUSH!!! Maybe I've got to stop by lockheed martin or some military supply company. All I've run into is very RED republicans who've said they would vote 3rd party of Bush is the nominee.

 

[rich34]

I would like to meet just ONE Jeb Bush supporter. I can't find a single one anywhere. I call BS on the support these polls give him. I honestly think they are making the numbers up to show support to someone that has none.

I've found Paul, Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and Santroum supporters. But I've yet to meet someone that says GO BUSH!!! Maybe I've got to stop by lockheed martin or some military supply company. All I've run into is very RED republicans who've said they would vote 3rd party of Bush is the nominee.

I agree with this as well, I just figured that those supporting Bush are the 65+ crowd.

 

[asurfaholic]

I've said this before, for some reason I see more Carson bumper stickers on cars and stop signs than anyone else. He is not some kook longshot, there is (as noted earlier) big money going to him, and boots on the ground in the critical early state of NC

 

[CaptUSA]

I've said this before, for some reason I see more Carson bumper stickers on cars and stop signs than anyone else. He is not some kook longshot, there is (as noted earlier) big money going to him, and boots on the ground in the critical early state of NC

All the more reason to count him as an ally.

 

[CPUd]

Carson is the AFP candidate. One way you can spot AFP is by the full wraps they do on the buses, and their "homemade" signs that get passed out at conventions. Their online comments are usually 10 words or less. I would guess they have a buttload of facebook accounts, but never really looked too deep into that. They can attract real people and get them out to conventions and rallies. Not sure if they can get people to the polls on primary day, though.

 

[William Tell]

Looking good!

 

[Todd]

Warnings about Ben Carson are very warranted.

 

[CaptUSA]

Warnings about Ben Carson are very warranted.

In a more optimistic view, I see Carson as our biggest opportunity - not our biggest threat. I wish we could all see it that way. We have the power to make it go either way.

 

[jbauer]

Carson seems to be one of the "not as evil" guys but id assume he's been bought and paid for

 

[specsaregood]

Carson seems to be one of the "not as evil" guys but id assume he's been bought and paid for

I hope jmdrake was correct in his opinion that Carson's run is less about becoming president and more about exposing people to his religion.

 

[randomname]

AFP?