Fox News Poll: Rand at 3%

Y'all know polls are bullshit right?

Still over here warming up the snowball machine...

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I attend every state GOP convention yet I get no polling calls. My friend's 80 year old grandmother that's a blazing alcoholic that watches Fox News 10 hours a day while drinking her daily bottle of port (bless her heart) and returns the RNC's stupid paper "surveys" dutifully gets poll calls on her landline daily.
 
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I attend every state GOP convention yet I get no polling calls. My friend's 80 year old grandmother that's a blazing alcoholic that watches Fox News 10 hours a day while drinking her daily bottle of port (bless her heart) and returns the RNC's stupid paper "surveys" dutifully gets poll calls on her landline daily.

Dude, if you convert her Rand's poll numbers could jump up by 14%!!!

Of course, they might stop calling her :(
 
I should start returning the GOP surveys to get on the Luntz poll list. Of course, they want money and they want me to pay return postage too.

Feels like a poll tax...
 
National polling doesn't really mean much... Except for the debates... We really need to make that prime time debate. If we miss that, then we could be in some trouble.

If it weren't for the debates this wouldn't concern me at all. He's only a point behind Rubio.

The one difference and benefit of this next debate is that CNN is going to use an average of all "recognized polls" between July 16th and September 10th.

So that gives us a much larger sample and will make it a lot more difficult to unseat Rand from the top 10. His average is solidly in 8th right now. We won't have to worry about one or two polls coming out right before the debate and shaking things up.

And if you believe that there's a mission to have Fiorina on stage, that makes it even more likely they will stick with 10 candidates rather than cutting it to 8... giving Rand an almost guaranteed spot.
 
more worrisome is Fox only polled 4 candidate vs. Clinton: Trump, Jeb, Rubio, Carly. these are now the front runners.

Trump is now only down by 5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

3rd party-at least the research should be done. but that would mean giving up the senate seat. if they screw Trump, and Trump bolts a 4th party-based on Ron's policies-might be viable. doesn't have to be Rand-maybe a libertarian billionaire with Rand as VP
 
The one difference and benefit of this next debate is that CNN is going to use an average of all "recognized polls" between July 16th and September 10th.

So that gives us a much larger sample and will make it a lot more difficult to unseat Rand from the top 10. His average is solidly in 8th right now. We won't have to worry about one or two polls coming out right before the debate and shaking things up.

And if you believe that there's a mission to have Fiorina on stage, that makes it even more likely they will stick with 10 candidates rather than cutting it to 8... giving Rand an almost guaranteed spot.

its 17 now, but Christie and Perry are ready to pull out. Pataki, Gilmore and Graham also could be gone also, that leaves 12. so they might make it 6 and 6.
 
Well this poll was a bummer for sure. To make it to the next debate, Rand should at least have 4% on average, 5% could be needed if they cut it to 8.

It makes one feel kinda helpless, being dependent on the outcome of the next 5-10 national polls that will come out until Sep 10th. Well, spreading liberty no matter what is the correct answer I guess :)

Btw CNN published the exact criteria:

"To receive an invitation to the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate, a candidate must satisfy the following criteria:
[...]

3. Achieve an average of at least one percent in three national polls from among those that are recognized in this document. Recognized polls must be released between July 16, 2015 and September 10th, 2015.
4. Have at least one paid campaign aide working in two of the four “early voting states” designated by the Republican National Committee: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina [..]
5. Visited two of the four “early voting states” designated by the Republican National Committee at least once [..]
6. The first 10 candidates – ranked from highest to lowest in polling order from an average of all qualifying polls [..] will be invited to participate in “Segment B” of the
September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate. [...]

Polling data will only be considered for live interviewer national polls sponsored by the following sources to determine eligibility for the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate: ABC/The Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS/The New York Times, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Marist, McClatchy, Monmouth University, NBC/The Wall Street Journal, Pew, Quinnipiac, USA Today, Time [...]

Additional Note:
*If the number of candidates who qualify for the debate is 14 or fewer, CNN reserves the right to limit the number of participants in “Segment B” to eight candidates. The remaining qualified candidates will be invited to participate in “Segment A” of the debate."

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf
 
Well this poll was a bummer for sure. To make it to the next debate, Rand should at least have 4% on average, 5% could be needed if they cut it to 8.

It makes one feel kinda helpless, being dependent on the outcome of the next 5-10 national polls that will come out until Sep 10th. Well, spreading liberty no matter what is the correct answer I guess :)

Btw CNN published the exact criteria:

"To receive an invitation to the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate, a candidate must satisfy the following criteria:
[...]

3. Achieve an average of at least one percent in three national polls from among those that are recognized in this document. Recognized polls must be released between July 16, 2015 and September 10th, 2015.
4. Have at least one paid campaign aide working in two of the four “early voting states” designated by the Republican National Committee: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina [..]
5. Visited two of the four “early voting states” designated by the Republican National Committee at least once [..]
6. The first 10 candidates – ranked from highest to lowest in polling order from an average of all qualifying polls [..] will be invited to participate in “Segment B” of the
September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate. [...]

Polling data will only be considered for live interviewer national polls sponsored by the following sources to determine eligibility for the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate: ABC/The Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS/The New York Times, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Marist, McClatchy, Monmouth University, NBC/The Wall Street Journal, Pew, Quinnipiac, USA Today, Time [...]

Additional Note:
*If the number of candidates who qualify for the debate is 14 or fewer, CNN reserves the right to limit the number of participants in “Segment B” to eight candidates. The remaining qualified candidates will be invited to participate in “Segment A” of the debate."

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf

so it has to be 8 as Graham, Pataki, Gilmore do not qualify, Christie, Perry pulling out. going to be very hard for Rand to get into the top 8
 
so it has to be 8 as Graham, Pataki, Gilmore do not qualify, Christie, Perry pulling out.

Not a single assumption of the above is anywhere near confirmed yet. And this 1%-Threshold isnt formulated clear enough, maybe its enough to have 1% on average in only 3 polls between July 16 and Sep 10th? Then its doable for Graham and Pataki at least.
 
Average since July 16 (based on RCP national polls)

Trump (22.1),
Bush (11.8),
Walker (11.3),
Carson (7.0),
Cruz (6.25),
Huckabee (6.3),
Rubio (6.2),
Paul (4.7)


Kasich (3.4),
Christie (3.3),
Fiorina (2.2),
Perry (2.0),
Jindal (1.4),
Santorum (1.3),
Graham (0.5)


OA52BVe.png
 
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who the fuck is Kasich? And HOW is he at 4%.... this is sooooo disheartening.. these fucking lamebrain voters.

And christie... wtf!!!!

Also, I think Rand should have been at the Iowa fair... was he? I think he was in haiti, eye surgeries.

Yeah, he wasn't there. I don't understand.
 
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/14/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-on-clinton/

It is also up on RCP

Trump: 25
Carson: 12
Cruz: 10
Bush: 9
Walker: 6
Huckabee: 6
Fiorina: 5
Kasich: 4
Rubio: 4
Paul: 3
Christie: 3
Perry: 1
Santorum: 1
Jindal: 1
Pataki: 1
Graham: 0
Gilmore: 0


This is concerning

Fox News does a great job at methodology . . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-on-top-carson-in-second/ar-BBlOhlM
Bush saw the biggest drop of any candidate following their performance in the debate, from 15 percent to 9 percent.
 
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Liberty movement is not stagnant.

Rand has 3 superpacs. Young Americans for Liberty and Students for Liberty doing fine. Get out moar! Libertarianism in general has made major gains. We are soooo far from where we were, when it was a late night re-broadcast of an underfunded LP debate or nothing.

Very important point that should not get lost in all the moaning about the state of Rand's campaign. The Liberty Movement has never been more popular. There has never been a more opportune time to run as a liberty candidate at the state, local, or even national level.

Rand made a strategic decision to throw out the playbook which Liberty Candidates (including himself) had used in the past to successsfully win elections and opt instead for this "different" kind of campaign. It might turn out to be a brilliant move, as some on here hope, or it could end in utter disaster. But if it does end in disaster, it wouldn't reflect poorly on the Liberty Movement in the slightest. It would just mean that the particular type of strategy Rand decided to test drive in his Presidential Run is a dud and shouldn't be repeated. Nothing more.
 
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