Flipping the vote against Ron Paul in South Carolina?

[low preference guy]

From the Daily Paul, somebody presents the case that votes were stolen from Paul in South Carolina. It's not evident that he is correct, but he has good arguments.

Upon reviewing the Greenville County Precinct election vote data from the 2012, a disturbing pattern arose: Ron Paul averaged 24% in precincts where less than 250 people voted; he averaged less than 12 percent in precincts with more than 800. A spreadsheet was created to help me understand how this could be. Why was Ron Paul’s percentage in large precincts half of that in small precincts?

Why does Romney's reported total equal Paul's expected total and Paul's reported total equal Romney's expected total?

Read the rest

Rev9

Edit: Daily Paul thread

 

[rp08orbust]

//

 

[low preference guy]

For or from?

fixed

 

[walt]

Can someone send that to Rachel Maddow?

 

[bcreps85]

Interesting read...I can't think of any obvious problems with the logic. It seems to me that larger counties could vote different than smaller counties and it would be believable...the smoking gun is how Romney/Paul ended up within a percent or so of where the other was projected to be though.

If nothing was taking place here, I'd expect both lines to deviate, but not follow any obvious pattern. Would be interested to see this logic applied to all of the primaries. That being said, it would not be a good way to check the integrity of caucus states.

 

[S.Shorland]

I let out an audible 'awww' when looking at the graphs.What a sickener for Paul.

 

[Diashi]

Can someone send that to Rachel Maddow?

Interesting speculation alone isn't worth broadcasting. If we had hard evidence here of a flipped vote with testimony to back it up, that would be worth bugging anchors and drudge about...

 

[Mark37snj]

You have got to be f...............................................................................................................ing kidding me!!!

 

[S.Shorland]

Where does he get his expected figures for Anderson from? RealClearPolitics SC polls had Romney well in the lead over Paul.

 

[bcreps85]

Where does he get his expected figures for Anderson from? RealClearPolitics SC polls had Romney well in the lead over Paul.

That was the one thing I wasn't sure about when reading the document, but that still doesn't really affect the argument of the paper since the statistics are based on actual votes and not polls.

 

[Mark37snj]

Where does he get his expected figures for Anderson from? RealClearPolitics SC polls had Romney well in the lead over Paul.

Just above Figure 1 it says at the top of the paragraph that "A spreadsheet was created with vote data downloaded from the SC Election Commision's website for Anderson County. Not sure if thats what you are looking for.

 

[S.Shorland]

Sorry.I just can't believe it was so blatant.I was thinking that in the RCP average Paul was always behind and this was so outrageous,maybe it was a spoof! as long as the figures are as he claims,I can't hole his logic.

 

[Mark37snj]

Nevada is begging for this kind of statistical analysis, especially in Washoe County.

 

[low preference guy]

Interesting speculation alone isn't worth broadcasting. If we had hard evidence here of a flipped vote with testimony to back it up, that would be worth bugging anchors and drudge about...

we need hidden cameras recording a flipped vote

Rev9

 

[bcreps85]

Nevada is begging for this kind of statistical analysis, especially in Washoe County.

Does anybody know where to get all of these numbers by county, or possibly even already in excel format? If we could get that information on here, maybe somebody with the know-how would take that up.

*NOTE* I don't think that the statistical calculations used in the document for SC will be accurate for caucuses, only primaries. A small vocal minority can skew the numbers in a caucus much more.

 

[low preference guy]

added a link to the Daily Paul thread to the OP.

 

[goldpants]

This stuff is so unreal that it is real. I guess RP was proven right to campaign in SC and advertise there as well. Let's flood the caucuses, it seems it is our only shot to overthrow this tyranny.

 

[amonasro]

So basically Ron gets Mitt's projected totals and Mitt got Ron's. The graphs line up nearly perfectly.

That's pretty messed up.

 

[roversaurus]

Plausible.

I want to see the same analysis run for different counties.
Then for different states.

I'd also like to see the number for Rick Perry included in there. I know he got some votes. Maybe not enough.

I'd also like to know more about that particular county and the precincts.

This could always be just corruption in one county or just one statistical fluke in one county.

Why would Ron Paul and Romney "flip" in voters minds? If you say Paul is strong in the small precincts you must say that Romney is strong in the big precincts. And Santorum and Gingrich have the same appeal to small and large.

But we don't know WHY some precincts are small and some large. Was it turnout? Was it rural/urban? Democrat/Republican? Black/White? Regardless it has to be something the uniquely impacts only Paul and Romney.

It would be nice to see this analysis for Iowa and New Hampshire where there were more candidates.

 

[S.Shorland]

Malkusm or someone statistically minded needs to verify it and then send it to Rachel M and ben Swann.