First US case of Ebola

[navy-vet]

I do hope that this ebola thing is petering it's self out. We may have dodged another bullet for now but if anything, it sends a loud message to the people that they are pretty much on their own. And I think that it's a good thing that the people realize this, for freedoms sake if nothing else.

 

[presence]

I do hope that this ebola thing is petering it's self out.

EBOLA = MOON

 

[KEEF]

I also hear that worldwide 9.5 people out of every 1000 die each day from lack of oxygen to the brain.

 

[navy-vet]

EBOLA = MOON

I bet the seasonal flu does that too, and with a lot more deaths.

 

[presence]

I bet the seasonal flu does that too, and with a lot more deaths.

Actually "seasonal" flu is less seasonal than you'd think. It averages 6% of deaths in the fairly consistent range from 4-8% regardless of season.

If ebola was stock I'd give it a strong buy rating right here. Even with an ultra conservative 30 day doubling rate:


10/22 10000 cases
11/22 20000 cases
12/22 40000 cases
1/22/15 80000 cases
2/22/15 160,000 cases

Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15–20 days

-CDC September 14 2014

On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) are

1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone.

The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are

1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone;

the corresponding doubling times are

15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone.

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive rate, basic reproductive ratio and denoted R[SUB]0[/SUB], r nought) of an infection can be thought of as the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population.[SUP][5][/SUP]

This metric is useful because it helps determine whether or not an infectious disease can spread through a population. The roots of the basic reproduction concept can be traced through the work of Alfred Lotka, Ronald Ross, and others, but its first modern application in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952, who constructed population models of the spread of malaria.

When

R[SUB]0[/SUB] < 1
the infection will die out in the long run. But if

R[SUB]0[/SUB] > 1
the infection will be able to spread in a population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

(Spanish) influenza virus, which has attributed to >20 million deaths.

[]

The effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infectious cases produced by a typical infectious case in a given population) for the 1918 influenza virus was in the range 1.2–3.0

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/36/4/881.full

 

[navy-vet]

Actually "seasonal" flu is less seasonal than you'd think. It averages 6% of deaths in the fairly consistent range from 4-8% regardless of season.

If ebola was stock I'd give it a strong buy rating right here. Even with an ultra conservative 30 day doubling rate:


10/22 10000 cases
11/22 20000 cases
12/22 40000 cases
1/22/15 80000 cases
2/22/15 160,000 cases




-CDC September 14 2014




http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number






http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/36/4/881.full

interesting, thanks for the post! You are right about that by the way, unfortunately.....

 

[S.Shorland]

Smoking gun?

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

presence,

the problem with your numbers is that the doubling isn't linear. It's getting shorter. I posted something a while back in this thread - might be called "ebola's deadly math" if google is faster... but the doubling time is getting shorter. it will be 7 days soon. The 1.4 million projection by early next year sounds possible.

There will be some vaccines available (that may or may not work) in 3-4 months, but they will be given to medical staff, grave diggers and the family members of those doing home care. It will be more months before they can vaccinate the population due to production time.

The most optimistic projection I've heard is getting it under control in 4-6 months. This seems unrealistic.

The most pessimistic projection is 14 months. That number does not take into account some limited progress with standard health measures, primarily hand washing and getting people to not shake hands, keeping kids home and not at school, social distancing, etc.

Realistically, the only hard stop is when the virus runs out of "food" (that would be us). It also assumes that no cases get out and find a new food supply.

It could also mutate into something less lethal, but I'm not holding my breath - esp if that means it goes airborne.

-t

 

[francisco]

Doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to New York City's Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of Ebola disease.

[Published: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 2:49 PM Eastern time
Updated: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 5:53 PM Eastern time]

The 33-year-old identified as Dr. Craig Spencer recently returned from West Africa after working with Doctors Without Borders. Although he had placed himself in self-quarantine, city health workers were rushing to find anyone with whom Spencer may have been in contact.

A 33-year-old doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of the deadly disease.

Preliminary results of tests done on the doctor, identified by sources as Craig Spencer, are expected in the next 12 hours, the city's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said in a statement.

Spencer, who was one of the medics working in Guinea with Doctors Without Borders, had been back for 10 days and told authorities he quarantined himself after developing nausea and a high fever, sources said.

But city health department officials were looking into reports that Spencer was at a bowling alley on Wednesday in Williamsburg and took an Uber taxi to get there, sources said.

Read more:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...ients-rushed-bellevue-fever-article-1.1984941

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Realistically, the only hard stop is when the virus runs out of "food" (that would be us). It also assumes that no cases get out and find a new food supply.

Ebola already has quite a few species where it can comfortably exist.

Can Ebola spread into the environment in North America?

 

[navy-vet]

Doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to New York City's Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of Ebola disease.

[Published: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 2:49 PM Eastern time
Updated: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 5:53 PM Eastern time]

The 33-year-old identified as Dr. Craig Spencer recently returned from West Africa after working with Doctors Without Borders. Although he had placed himself in self-quarantine, city health workers were rushing to find anyone with whom Spencer may have been in contact.



Read more:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...ients-rushed-bellevue-fever-article-1.1984941

uhoh, there goes NYC....Secure the bridges and other exits. QUARANTINE! If anyone here has seen "The Strain", then you know what I'm talking about, what's at stake!

 

[Miss Annie]

Doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to New York City's Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of Ebola disease.

[Published: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 2:49 PM Eastern time
Updated: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 5:53 PM Eastern time]

The 33-year-old identified as Dr. Craig Spencer recently returned from West Africa after working with Doctors Without Borders. Although he had placed himself in self-quarantine, city health workers were rushing to find anyone with whom Spencer may have been in contact.



Read more:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...ients-rushed-bellevue-fever-article-1.1984941

And the guy went bowling last night.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/23/cbs-2-officials-looking-into-possible-ebola-case-in-new-york-city/

 

[devil21]

This may be a dumb question but since when do active airports allow helicopters (or drones) to fly around over the tarmac in the middle of the day just to take video footage of an ebola patient?

This is fuckin creepy! A mid-air collision between a plane and helicopter over the same airport that Nina Pham was allegedly dropped off at in Maryland. Either I'm psychic or someone is trying to make my posts a reality! What are the odds????

http://news.yahoo.com/police-plane-helicopter-collide-maryland-203423275.html

FREDERICK, Md. (AP) — An airplane and a helicopter collided in the air near an airport in Maryland on Thursday, killing three people and injuring two.
...............
Nurse Nina Pham arrived at the airport last week from Dallas on her way to treatment for Ebola at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to New York City's Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of Ebola disease.

[Published: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 2:49 PM Eastern time
Updated: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 5:53 PM Eastern time]

The 33-year-old identified as Dr. Craig Spencer recently returned from West Africa after working with Doctors Without Borders. Although he had placed himself in self-quarantine, city health workers were rushing to find anyone with whom Spencer may have been in contact.



Read more:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...ients-rushed-bellevue-fever-article-1.1984941

Self quarantine is supposed to be 3 weeks... so he goes bowling after 10 days... ugh! I hope MSF fires his ass!

Brooklyn Bowl, on its Facebook page, said it had not been contacted by authorities.

About what I would expect from NYC Public Health officials



Note moron on left w/ hand in pocket? Note moron on right with exposed skin. That's how nurse #1 & 2 got sick.
Well, we didn't need NYC anyway....

OH WAIT - Moron on right - NOOOO BOOTIES! - Yeah, she's totally fucked!

Yeah - this is the place caring for a HOT patient!

Frieden spoke a day after the feds imposed new rules requiring that all travelers arriving in the U.S. from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone be monitored for three weeks, which is the incubation period for Ebola.

So good to know this doc knows how to read...

-t

 

[Brian4Liberty]

And the guy went bowling last night.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/23/cbs-2-officials-looking-into-possible-ebola-case-in-new-york-city/

Hopefully he didn't vomit anywhere.

And I still wonder about the danger of bodily fluids going into the sewage system. Are there rats in New York?

 

[Miss Annie]

Self quarantine is supposed to be 3 weeks... so he goes bowling after 10 days... ugh! I hope MSF fires his ass!



About what I would expect from NYC Public Health officials

View attachment 3283

Note moron on left w/ hand in pocket? Note moron on right with exposed skin. That's how nurse #1 & 2 got sick.
Well, we didn't need NYC anyway....

OH WAIT - Moron on right - NOOOO BOOTIES! - Yeah, she's totally fucked!

Yeah - this is the place caring for a HOT patient!



So good to know this doc knows how to read...

-t

This is why we need the travel ban and mandatory quarantines. People are stupid.

 

[Miss Annie]

Hopefully he didn't vomit anywhere.

And I still wonder about the danger of bodily fluids going into the sewage system. Are there rats in New York?

It's not so much the "public spewing" that I wonder about, but I have read that this can be just as easily spread by sweat and tears. Bowlers have sweaty hands, hence the baby powder.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

So good to know this doc knows how to read...

I have to assume that Doctors and nurses are so used to being around sick people and infections that they are somewhat jaded, and far less germ phobic then the rest of us.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

FREDERICK, Md. (AP) — An airplane and a helicopter collided in the air near an airport in Maryland on Thursday, killing three people and injuring two.
...............
Nurse Nina Pham arrived at the airport last week from Dallas on her way to treatment for Ebola at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.

Fredrick? - that's like an hour out from NIH. I don't think I've ever driven that stretch of HWY without seeing at least one accident. Are they trying for an outbreak?

There are a number of private airports much closer.

The main DC airport - is like 30 min out.

-t

 

[Miss Annie]

I have to assume that Doctors and nurses are so used to being around sick people and infections that they are somewhat jaded, and far less germ phobic then the rest of us.

That could be true because I had to remind my own mother, a doctor, in Texas mind you, not to shake someone's hand unless she had a glove on. At least while she was in clinic.