First case of China-linked coronavirus reported in US

[r3volution 3.0]

Whatever happens to us will not be nearly as bad as what will happen to them

...whatever let's you sleep.

(I sleep like a baby)

 

[Swordsmyth]

...whatever let's you sleep.

(I sleep like a baby)

I sleep just fine.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

I sleep just fine.

So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus?

Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%?

Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?

 

[Swordsmyth]

So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus?

Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%?

Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?

I don't know enough to tell yet.
It could be that it is already infecting and killing far more people than China admits to or it could be that we are getting relatively accurate numbers.
It could be that it will be just as dangerous outside of China or it could be insignificant due to better sanitation, better air quality, better nutrition and other factors in America and Europe.

This is either a new black plague or just another flu scare or something in between.

I think it will hurt China's economy severely and possibly be the pin that pops their bubble and brings down the CCP one way or another.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

I don't know enough to tell yet.
It could be that it is already infecting and killing far more people than China admits to or it could be that we are getting relatively accurate numbers.
It could be that it will be just as dangerous outside of China or it could be insignificant due to better sanitation, better air quality, better nutrition and other factors in America and Europe.

This is either a new black plague or just another flu scare or something in between.

I think it will hurt China's economy severely and possibly be the pin that pops their bubble and brings down the CCP one way or another.

The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.

 

[Swordsmyth]

The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.

I've seen several stories that claim someone outside of China caught it from someone who came from China but so far it doesn't seem to be spreading at the same rate outside of China.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

I've seen several stories that claim someone outside of China caught it from someone who came from China but so far it doesn't seem to be spreading at the same rate outside of China.

The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now).

But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China.

For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities.

I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.

 

[Swordsmyth]

The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now).

But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China.

For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities.

I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.

Supposedly one person who returned from China gave it to 3 co-workers in Germany and Japan has identified a case in a person who never went to China.

I think I may have seen more such stories but so far I haven't heard of anyone catching it from someone who hadn't been to China.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Supposedly one person who returned from China gave it to 3 co-workers in Germany and Japan has identified a case in a person who never went to China.

I think I may have seen more such stories but so far I haven't heard of anyone catching it from someone who hadn't been to China.

You beat me to it. I was just now looking around and came across the German story.

The German Health Ministry confirmed late on Tuesday that three further cases of the new dangerous strain of coronavirus have been discovered in Bavaria, increasing the total number of patients in Germany to four. The three new patients were "connected" to the first found in Germany, which had been verified on Monday.

The health authorities said: "There were a total of around 40 employees who have been determined to have been in contact with the [Chinese] woman. Those affected will be tested on Wednesday as a precaution."

Health officials added that the first person had contracted the disease from a Chinese colleague who had visited the area for a company workshop a week ago.

There it is.

The female who passed on the virus is from Shanghai and only started experiencing symptoms during her return flight home from Germany last Thursday, Zapf said.

Ahead of the female's business trip to Bavaria, she had met with her parents, who were visiting from Wuhan, the epicenter of the deadly outbreak.

Wuhan - Shanghai - Bavaria.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

You know, no one's been talking about how these people got to Europe.

There are direct flights from China to the W. Coast, but not to Europe (AFAIK).

This person leaving Shanghai probably went to Munich via Dubai, or maybe Delhi, Moscow...

Probably Dubai, from which we've heard exactly nothing

 

[Swordsmyth]

You know, no one's been talking about how these people got to Europe.

There are direct flights from China to the W. Coast, but not to Europe (AFAIK).

This person leaving Shanghai probably went to Munich via Dubai, or maybe Delhi, Moscow...

Probably Dubai, from which we've heard exactly nothing

If it gets to Africa they will be hit hard, their sanitation etc. isn't much better than China and may be worse in some ways.
And they are about to have a serious food problem due to locusts.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

If it gets to Africa they will be hit hard, their sanitation etc. isn't much better than China and may be worse in some ways.
And they are about to have a serious food problem due to locusts.

Sanitation isn't the main issue with a flu type disease; it's population density. Some places in Africa (sadly, all the nicer places, with international airports) would have serious problems, but most of the continent would be relatively unaffected IMO. It relates to what Brian and I were talking about. Places like India or Africa have serious sanitation problems, which makes them vulnerable to (or productive of) diseases that live in the water supply, like typhus or cholera, for instance. But 1st world sanitation doesn't do much to prevent some guy from sneezing on a doorknob.

I wonder if the KSA, the UAE, Qatar, etc learned any serious lessons from MERS; that's what this is like.

 

[AngryCanadian]

This thing is spreading in Canada and now in Nova Scotia.

 

[Danke]

There are direct flights between China and Europe.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Contagious before symptoms. Asymptomatic transmission. Not good.

Do we have a good figure on the incubation time already ? I read 3-14days before but so far have not read any confirmation.
If it's 7 days... Just imagine how many people around the world have been infected already without knowing.
Next week the whole world economy could grind to a halt if there are disease pockets in a countries around the entire world.

 

[Danke]

Do we have a good figure on the incubation time already ? I read 3-14days before but so far have not read any confirmation.
If it's 7 days... Just imagine how many people around the world have been infected already without knowing.
Next week the whole world economy could grind to a halt if there are disease pockets in a countries around the entire world.

I hope it takes at least 5 days, I don't want to be sick during the Super Bowl!

 

[oyarde]

I hope it takes at least 5 days, I don't want to be sick during the Super Bowl!

You must purchase a talisman from me to ensure your health for the superbowl. I am accepting gold and silver this week .

 

[Brian4Liberty]

You beat me to it. I was just now looking around and came across the German story.

There it is.

Wuhan - Shanghai - Bavaria.

Are you reading this thread?

The German cases have already been discussed in detail:

More on the German cases. Woman came from China to train in Germany, passed the virus on to co-workers.

So four in Germany so far.

Contagious before symptoms. Asymptomatic transmission. Not good.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Do we have a good figure on the incubation time already ? I read 3-14days before but so far have not read any confirmation.
If it's 7 days... Just imagine how many people around the world have been infected already without knowing.
Next week the whole world economy could grind to a halt if there are disease pockets in a countries around the entire world.

No idea. But a 14 day period is very scary, and that has been thrown out there. Even an extra day of asymptomatic transmission will multiply numbers exponentially.

....

Edit: updated, disputed asymptomatic transmission.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...ported-in-US&p=6918437&viewfull=1#post6918437

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

No idea. But a 14 day period is very scary, and that has been thrown out there. Even an extra day of asymptomatic transmission will multiply numbers exponentially.

So I just had another thought about that...

The German guy who reported sick (3 of his co-workers are also sick now) met their Chinese colleague on the 22nd. So that appears to be 5-6 days incubation time. Which is scary enough.

Also, please tell me what your thoughts are about this. Specifically considering the numbers may not be correct. (these are from random large media outlets dated to those dates.)

If we go back to the 16th,

16th - 41 confirmed / 2 dead
22nd - 571 confirmed / 17 dead
Today - ±6000 confirmed / ±130

How many of those 130 dead today are out of the 571 confirmed cases from last week ? People generally don't drop dead if they die from pneumonia, it generally takes a while. How many of the 17 dead from the 22nd are from the original 41 from the 16th ? Now, if you take that fully serious, you'd end up with a scary high death rate that is not realistic given the other facts. However, if you then consider that much more people than officially stated may be infected that corrects for it. We're back at square one and we don't know shit. I think one more week of data, specifically from Western countries, as the infection spreads there... Will yield us all the facts to remain calm or dig in.

Can you follow me there? It has to be serious as common flu kills enough people already... China doesn't lock down the entire country for nothing... But so far the numbers don't prove it. But they can be wrong on all ends. Wilfully so or by ignorance.