xerxesdarius
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Jenn,
When will they finish verifying the provisional ballots?
When will they finish verifying the provisional ballots?
FINALLY... an update!!! (no final numbers though)
- Thread starter jenninlouisiana
- Start date
wildebeest
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- May 12, 2007
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I voted with a provisional ballot in district 5...
and i voted RON PAUL!
and i voted RON PAUL!
Pure Excess
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Awesome! It takes time, but We The People , are doing it.
Thanks to everyone in LA who voted!
Thanks to everyone in LA who voted!
Give me liberty
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Not yet, the votes are still been counted.
I'm just going by what the OP and PaRocks have posted. Unless they are wrong we can't win a majority of delegates, right? But the group that already grouped up against us will have one, right?
I would say that right now, we have 5 delegates.
We know exactly how many provisionals are there in each of the districts.
We think, and rightly so I believe, that the provisionals will break our way.
By looking at what I posted, we can guess how many extra delegates we're going to pick up.
I see 4 delegates that we're almost certain to pick up - the single digit ones.
Someone, JenninLouisiana I believe, has current, good information. She believes, from talking to the campaign, that we may very well be picking up 10,20,30
extra delegates.
If the provisionals break huge our way, it is very foreseeable that we could pick up those numbers.
The provisionals are those who registered Republican in November 2007. Is it unrealistic to think that there may very well be a lot of Ron Paul votes there?
Now, if we pick up, let's say, 10 more delegates, we're taking away delegates from others. They could be PLPF delegates, McCain delegates, whatever.
Point being, we'll be picking up delegates as the provisionals are totalled in, and we'll be taking some from McCain (probably).
We could end up in "1st" - ahead of McCain, behind PLPF.
But, since the media is calling it for McCain, if we pass McCain, we're in 1st.
The article about the PFPL group being mostly for Fred has merit, but he is out, so those delegates are up for grabs. They will not go to Romney, these folks think Mormans are a cult for the most part. They will also not go Guiliani or only grudgingly to McCain for the most part.
That leaves them most likely supporting either Huckabee or Paul.
The reason I say this is that one of my coworkers won a delegate spot in District 7 under the Profamily/Prolife ticket and I got a chance to discuss the above with her.
She has been active in Republican politics for awhile and knows the state chairman very well.
From my point of view if Huckabee drops out before the national convention, most of these delegates will be supporting Ron Paul as he is the only one who is pure enough in the prolife issues that drive them.
www.lifebelowi10.blogspot.com
That leaves them most likely supporting either Huckabee or Paul.
The reason I say this is that one of my coworkers won a delegate spot in District 7 under the Profamily/Prolife ticket and I got a chance to discuss the above with her.
She has been active in Republican politics for awhile and knows the state chairman very well.
From my point of view if Huckabee drops out before the national convention, most of these delegates will be supporting Ron Paul as he is the only one who is pure enough in the prolife issues that drive them.
www.lifebelowi10.blogspot.com
I don't really care about the horserace stuff like the media does (when Ron Paul isn't doing well). Maybe I don't really understand how the state convention works. My point was that if PFPL group was formed with the purpose of beating Ron Paul (maybe this is erroneous?), couldn't we expect them to group together again when electing national delegates? If we have (best case) 35 and they can get more than 35 (out of 70) to agree on a non-ron paul slate to send to the national convention, won't their slate end up going and none of ours? Hell, they could have already made a deal to send 44 of them all to the RNC by simply voting for 43 others in the PFPL group. And if Rudy or Huck drop out before the convention, wouldn't that make it even easier to consolidate on a non-paul slate?
Do we have a decent feel for these PFPL delegates in general? Are they insiders, pro-life, or both?
jenninlouisiana
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It doesn't really work like that. We know who the RP people are so we can tell how many delegate spots RP got. But all the other people are "uncomitted" and for various people so unless you can pick out the McCain people from their handbill, you can't say McCain won. And the final results aren't in anyway. One guy who was on the McCain ballot said he's not for McCain and doesn't know how his name got on there. (that's what he said, I have no way of knowing if it is true)...
Assuming this is a reply to me...my concern is with the state convention not who "won" on Tuesday. Do you think that a group that got together to promote a mixed slate wouldn't get together again to promote a mixed slate at the state convention?
Well, I do know that you know what you're talking about.
How is it though, that the Louisiana Republican Party was able to say that
McCain came in first, Paul came in second, Romney came in third?
Where I'm going with this is that the media is saying that McCain came in first.
Fine with me, because when we pick up delegates due to the Provisionals being counted, we might pass McCain. That means that we came in first, we won.
PLPF actually won, but since the media is reporting this as a McCain victory, all we need to do is to pass McCain for a victory.
On a unrelated note, do you think that those Provisionals are going to be valid?
There are rumors floating around that a lot of those Provisionals are Ron Paul votes from people living outside the proper district. You might have a good feel for whether or not those Provisionals are going to be for us and are going to check out.
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