Federal Forecast predicts Paul, Obama will come out on top

[LARRY08RP]

PORTSMOUTH — The results are in and the latest poll shows Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire Primary by nearly 30 points.

Well, it’s not exactly a formal poll, but Leonard Seagren, co-owner of Federal Cigar, claims the “Federal Forecast” — the matchbook poll held at the Ladd Street smoke shop, which is a 24-year-old Seacoast tradition — has an 80 percent success ratio. The poll, which took place from Monday to Sunday, reflected statewide polls in some ways and greatly differed in others.

Long-shot Paul won the Republican nomination in New Hampshire with 31 percent. He was follows by John McCain (27 percent), Rudy Giuliani (21 percent), Mike Huckabee (10 percent), Mitt Romney (8 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (no votes).

The Democrat results showed Obama, a known smoker, would win easily with 46 percent of the votes. The big surprise came from Dennis Kucinich, who tied for second with John Edwards, at 17 percent support — both beating out Hillary Clinton’s 13 percent. They were followed by Joe Biden (4 percent) and Chris Dodd (3 percent), who have dropped out of the race since the poll started. Bill Richardson brought up the rear at 1 percent.

In total 120 people voted with 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent voting for a Republican, which were the most surprising numbers to Seagren.

“Our Seacoast people are very liberal so I am surprised at the ratio,” said Seagren. “That’s just my opinion, but typically Portsmouth has demonstrated a liberal bend.”

In the 2000 and 2004 primaries, the poll missed the winner just once with Seacoast residents voting for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean over Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

“Overall, I’m very happy with the results,” said Seagren.

Something positiv after all this negative poll results.

http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/NEWS/80107012

 

[Molly1]

wow

Was that in a NH newspaper?

The liberal NH democrats are voting for Ron Paul!

It would not surprise me at all.

 

[Richandler]

This prediction assumes Giuliani will do well and Mitt will lose all of his support while McCain keeps his. A rather biased prediction. See the word long shot again really irks me. The fact they still use the term is like acts like a mini-attack ad everytime it's mentioned.

 

[LARRY08RP]

Don't take it too serious.

I thought after all these poll results it doesn't matter whether we have that one to.

 

[WilliamC]

If Ron Paul wins New Hampshire I will smoke a cigar! and I don't much care for tobacco!

 

[LibertiORDeth]

"In the 2000 and 2004 primaries, the poll missed the winner just once with Seacoast residents voting for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean over Sen. John Kerry in 2004."

So they have a 50% accuracy rate?

 

[LARRY08RP]

If Ron Paul wins New Hampshire I will smoke a cigar! and I don't much care for tobacco!

And if Ron Paul becomes president you can import them from Cuba without any problems.

 

[Andrew-Austin]

If Ron Paul wins New Hampshire I will smoke a cigar! and I don't much care for tobacco!

lol, same here.

 

[Naraku]

Giuliani probably will do well because of his social liberalism.

I'm not sure about 21%, but I expect him to get over 10%. Though, honestly, the numbers are probably wrong over all, though the Paul numbers could be true.

 

[jacmicwag]

Cigars and politics - interesting.

 

[LARRY08RP]

You know folks the only thing i can do at the moment is relax my nervs.

Its 23:33 pm here in Germany.

I was very happy to see a positiv poll result before i go to bed after all that 10%, 8%, 6% results.


I'm german and nervous about an election in the USA in New Hampshire.

The world is small.

 

[Pharoah]

Ron Paul should put out a statement correcting the MSM. "My first name is actually Ron, not Long-Shot."

 

[Victor]

"Well, it’s not exactly a formal poll, but Leonard Seagren, co-owner of Federal Cigar, claims the “Federal Forecast” — the matchbook poll held at the Ladd Street smoke shop, which is a 24-year-old Seacoast tradition — has an 80 percent success ratio. The poll, which took place from Monday to Sunday, reflected statewide polls in some ways and greatly differed in others."

If this poll has a 80 percent success ratio, then I consider this a more scientific poll than FAUXs...

 

[LudwigVan Kubrick]

the overuse of the words "long shot" and the like are just more examples of the media "steering" the news toward the agendas of media owners.

So obvious too...

If this poll has a 80 percent success ratio, then I consider this a more scientific poll than FAUXs...

Clearly agenda driven polls. This weekend has dispelled any illusion of objectivity FoxNews pretended to have.

 

[oriolesfan]

"In the 2000 and 2004 primaries, the poll missed the winner just once with Seacoast residents voting for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean over Sen. John Kerry in 2004."

So they have a 50% accuracy rate?

No, they predicted results for each party's primary each of those two years. So its a 75% rate.

 

[noiseordinance]

Ron Paul should put out a statement correcting the MSM. "My first name is actually Ron, not Long-Shot."

"...but you can call me Dr. Paul."

You know, it's considered very rude to call a Dr. by their first name. Why doesn't the media realize this? Or am I thinking about this all wrong?

 

[Andrew-Austin]

You know folks the only thing i can do at the moment is relax my nervs.

Its 23:33 pm here in Germany.

I was very happy to see a positiv poll result before i go to bed after all that 10%, 8%, 6% results.


I'm german and nervous about an election in the USA in New Hampshire.

The world is small.

Indeed it is.

 

[NoPants]

Ron Paul should put out a statement correcting the MSM. "My first name is actually Ron, not Long-Shot."

Classic!

 

[rasheedwallace]

mittens at 8%, i doubt it.

 

[markj]

You know folks the only thing i can do at the moment is relax my nervs.

Its 23:33 pm here in Germany.

I was very happy to see a positiv poll result before i go to bed after all that 10%, 8%, 6% results.


I'm german and nervous about an election in the USA in New Hampshire.

The world is small.

Yes, yes it is. Thank you Germany!