W/ yr over yr spending seen as up 138 billion from Jan - Mar 2025. Recently passed budget resolution autorizes congress to borrow 5.8 more trillion over ten yrs , so 7 trillion w/ interest. Feds 1.3 trillion in 1st 6 monts of fiscal yr only exceeded once , during plague. Inflation figure of 2.5 percent looks to be as good as it will get unless a downturn were to come , my guess is 1 or two more inflation numbers like last allows Fed to cut rate a 1/4 point.