Feeding the Abscess
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Fantasy Football 2014
- Thread starter Bastiat's The Law
- Start date
thoughtomator
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Definitely some surprises this week... top things that caught my notice this morning were how Nirva's team blew away their projections to steal a longshot win, and two highly-rated teams who turned in some decidedly average performances.
The top-2-scorers-playing-each-other thing is definitely happening, so my game vs. brandon is going to come down to the performance of Stafford and company. Longbombs looks to be coming in 3rd overall this week, with a big gap between his expected score (222ish) and the next best expected score (196ish).
The top-2-scorers-playing-each-other thing is definitely happening, so my game vs. brandon is going to come down to the performance of Stafford and company. Longbombs looks to be coming in 3rd overall this week, with a big gap between his expected score (222ish) and the next best expected score (196ish).
thoughtomator
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I wrote that at halftime
brandon
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Was a lot of fun yesterday watching our game and the projections bounce back and forth. I had a lot of guys on offense put in big performances, but a lot of my defenders came up way short. I guess I could still win if my defense turns in a shutout tonight and Stafford chokes, but it's going to be tough.
thoughtomator
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I don't see any problem with your defense nor its performance this week. I'd be perfectly happy with the defensive results you've gotten so far - presuming the last LB doesn't drop a zero on you, you've got 60+ points of IDP which is a #2 output in this league.
Only thing that went wrong for you this week is the matchup - you'd be a clear favorite against any other opponent. And without the bizarre outcome of 31 points for Houston defense, this would still be neck-and-neck. As it is, you're still not out of it yet. If we assume that you end up losing this game, I'd still have to regard your team as the #1 challenger for the title at this time.
Only thing that went wrong for you this week is the matchup - you'd be a clear favorite against any other opponent. And without the bizarre outcome of 31 points for Houston defense, this would still be neck-and-neck. As it is, you're still not out of it yet. If we assume that you end up losing this game, I'd still have to regard your team as the #1 challenger for the title at this time.
Bastiat's The Law
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Harrison Smith is a beast.
muzzled dogg
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Live by the pats die by the pats
Managed to survive this week despite their L
Managed to survive this week despite their L
thoughtomator
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Matchup review heading into Monday night games
Decided Matches
NH Free Staters over Danno Team Americuh: Taking 7 zeroes out of 19 players crushes Danno's chances in Week 1. Fix the IDP, Danno!
Voluntaryist Victory over Dallas Wackobirds: Balanced scoring gives VV a solid win this week as only Steve Smith and Cameron Wake post superior scores for the Wackobirds.
Stark Direwolves over Liberty Rising: Underdog survives brutal IDP outing thanks to multiple impressive outings on the offensive side of the ball, including Matt Ryan's record performance.
Johnson & Johnson over SolarPoweredPassers: J&J becomes the only team in all of Fantasy Football to ride Allen Hurns' breakout day to a win.
BrianEllisTrustFund over Taxachusetts: BETF puts forth a solid outing buttressed by nice performances in several areas, while nobody on the Taxers' side shines through this week.
Longbombs over Yvonne's Dolphins: Fine performances at QB, TE, K, and DEF lift the Longbombs to what will likely be the 3rd best score of the week.
Still Undecided Going Into Monday Night
Austrian Argonauts vs. Freedom Fanatics: AA is saved by FF's lack of QB scoring this week... or are they? 7-1 odds of pulling out the victory still for AA despite a performance well below projections.
One Percenters vs. Philadelphia Martyrs: Week's (likely) top two scorers end up head-to-head in a game with multiple star performances on both teams. OP heads into the night with a 30-point projection gap, giving about a 4-1 chance of victory with five players across the two teams yet to go.
Jesse Benton's Corpse vs. Alex Jones Forever: Two of the week's lowest scorers and worst IDP disaster zones head into Monday night with JBC having a little better than a 3-1 chance to pull out the victory.
Nail Biter of the Week
ISIS vs. No Money Big Mouths: Projected as an easy win for NMBM, this game has turned into anything but, and only a few points separate the projected outcomes at this point. If Carson Palmer can post 26 points or better, ISIS will have stolen this game in a massive upset.
Decided Matches
NH Free Staters over Danno Team Americuh: Taking 7 zeroes out of 19 players crushes Danno's chances in Week 1. Fix the IDP, Danno!
Voluntaryist Victory over Dallas Wackobirds: Balanced scoring gives VV a solid win this week as only Steve Smith and Cameron Wake post superior scores for the Wackobirds.
Stark Direwolves over Liberty Rising: Underdog survives brutal IDP outing thanks to multiple impressive outings on the offensive side of the ball, including Matt Ryan's record performance.
Johnson & Johnson over SolarPoweredPassers: J&J becomes the only team in all of Fantasy Football to ride Allen Hurns' breakout day to a win.
BrianEllisTrustFund over Taxachusetts: BETF puts forth a solid outing buttressed by nice performances in several areas, while nobody on the Taxers' side shines through this week.
Longbombs over Yvonne's Dolphins: Fine performances at QB, TE, K, and DEF lift the Longbombs to what will likely be the 3rd best score of the week.
Still Undecided Going Into Monday Night
Austrian Argonauts vs. Freedom Fanatics: AA is saved by FF's lack of QB scoring this week... or are they? 7-1 odds of pulling out the victory still for AA despite a performance well below projections.
One Percenters vs. Philadelphia Martyrs: Week's (likely) top two scorers end up head-to-head in a game with multiple star performances on both teams. OP heads into the night with a 30-point projection gap, giving about a 4-1 chance of victory with five players across the two teams yet to go.
Jesse Benton's Corpse vs. Alex Jones Forever: Two of the week's lowest scorers and worst IDP disaster zones head into Monday night with JBC having a little better than a 3-1 chance to pull out the victory.
Nail Biter of the Week
ISIS vs. No Money Big Mouths: Projected as an easy win for NMBM, this game has turned into anything but, and only a few points separate the projected outcomes at this point. If Carson Palmer can post 26 points or better, ISIS will have stolen this game in a massive upset.
thoughtomator
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Stafford and Calvin Johnson are quickly justifying their draft picks - 10 minutes in, 20 and 25 points respectively so far. If this keeps going this way then I have a chance to break last year's single-game record of 284 points (by No Money Big Mouths week 2, 2013 season).
Christian Liberty
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Yeah, I'm really bad about that.
Bastiat's The Law
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My team DEF gave be a big goose egg. They were supposed to be one of the top team D's too.
thoughtomator
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defenses and kickers are completely unpredictable, is why every fantasy pro says draft them in the last two rounds
look at the top scoring defenses this week and how many are unowned! None were considered to be above the bottom 12 when we drafted.
In other news, I'm ready to declare my game won. Stafford is 9 yards from giving the 300-yard bonus, and I also have the team's kicker, so if he fails to throw for a TD on any given drive, the kicker gets points instead. NYG offense is so horrible that DET is starting with great field position over and over and over. (as I was typing this message, Eli tossed another INT deep in his own territory, leaving yet another short field)
240 points on the board so far, still have the rest of this game plus a WR2 left to score more - while the matchup outcome is no longer in doubt, that all-time high score is within my reach - current projection is 270 points, but a good game by Floyd can get the other 15 I'm looking for.
thoughtomator
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LOL Stafford rushing TD he's pouring it on... what a great draft pick he was early 3rd round!
thoughtomator
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256.90 points and a quality WR yet to play - at some point this season I'm going to bust through 300 points, I can feel it!
thoughtomator
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Uh oh.... Argonauts pull TWO goose eggs out of the DET-NYG game; odds of winning drop to 2-1 going into the late game. 14.46 combined points are needed from Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates to pull it out...
thoughtomator
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Odds of victory for Jesse Benton's Corpse have also dropped to 3:2, leaving three matches to be decided in this final, upcoming SD-ARI game. Luck to all...
Christian Liberty
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I'm so annoyed that I wouldn't even have to be worrying right now had I freaking started Anderson.
thoughtomator
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Halftime arrives in 45 minutes - very fast half - with lousy fantasy scoring for almost everyone involved. QBs combine for 9/19, 150 yds, 0 TD 0 INT in the half
thoughtomator
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scratch that, was just a quarter
with another catch by Michael Floyd my projection has gone up to 283 points...
with another catch by Michael Floyd my projection has gone up to 283 points...
thoughtomator
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And the final results... Argonauts back into the win, Alex Jones Forever flops in its bit to unseat Jessie Benton's Corpse, but ISIS pulls off a stunner against the heavily favored No Money Big Mouths. Grats to all winners this week.
Week 1 Recap
200+ point scores
279.00 One Percenters
235.45 Philadelphia Martyrs
214.75 Johnson & Johnson
213.10 Longbombs
The significance of 200+ point scores is that if you break that mark, you are highly likely to win your game. Last season, the highest losing score was 218 points - every team who scored more than that won their game that week. Unfortunately for the Martyrs, they scored well above that this week and lost - a result that will probably not happen again this side of the playoffs. The 279 points I scored this week would have been the second best result in all of last year. Doesn't get easier for me, though - I go from playing the second-highest scorer in the league to the third this week against Johnson & Johnson.
An interesting aside, my top 5 draft picks averaged 25 points in Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Lesson
Since I'm the reigning league champ, and got the inside track to repeat with my blowout score this week, I feel I'm in a position to offer some team management advice.
Today's lesson is in "baselining".
Establishing baseline performance
A baseline performance at a position is the highest score among all free agents (not on a roster) assuming perfect rostering by all teams. For example, this league starts 1 QB, so 20 QBs will start. The baseline score at the position would therefore be the 21st best QB result, with 1-20 all being rostered in the ideal case. In 2013, this was Geno Smith with 275 points during the season.
A baseline is the minimum you can expect your opponent to score - you want to do better than that, to win.
In a case where there are two or more slots for a position, the baseline equation is (slots per team x number of teams)+1, so the 61st WR, 41st RB, 21st TE are all baseline-establishing players. Same goes for the defensive side of the ball.
In the case of flex and IDP flex positions, this can push the baseline further down. With one flex W/R/T position, the baseline for WR, RB, and TE will be below the top 20 players that are below the positional baselines, from whichever position they come from. If these are 12 WR, 6 RB, and 2 TE, then the new baselines become the 73rd WR, 47th RB, and 23rd TE.
Last year I calculated baselines for WR and RB at 125 points over the course of the season. My guesses as to other baselines are QB 275, TE 115, LB 65, DL 50, DB 60.
There's no reason to baseline DEF or K because the statistical variation among these players is so small, and performance is so unreliable game to game. Even if you have the best of each, it's still a crapshoot.
Establishing a baseline gives you the ability to set a numeric value on players that can be compared across positions. If I have a 150-point/season LB, I can compare him directly to a WR - the LB gives me +85 points over baseline over the season, so a baseline+85 WR (210 points) is equal value to that LB. Note that these value calculations are different than what Yahoo uses, but they are more accurate.
Make some moves
If there's a glaring need in our league, it's at IDP. There are a shocking number of zeros in rosters this week. If you see a zero, you need to make a change to your roster!
Looking a the performance this week, there are a great many players, especially at DB/DL positions but also at LB, who were among the top scorers yet sit on the free agent list, while team after team is serving up zeroes in their positions. These are FREE POINTS for you if you have a zero. There's no excuse not to drop the zeroes and pick up the guys who actually scored points; the only question is how much better than zero they will be. Some of the guys available are a LOT better, turning in elite-level scoring this week. You MUST grab them to manage your team effectively. If you do not, you are going to lose consistently to teams that do!
D-flex spots
There are two IDP flex spots per team. In almost all cases these should be filled with linebackers. If you have more than 2 DB and 2 DL on your team, you are leaving points on the table every week - linebackers base a point a game or more higher than those positions. D-flex positions should have LB, LB.
It's a Math game
The bottom line is that this is a game of numbers. Higher numbers win. Anything you can do to consistently push your team's number higher on an every-game basis is something you should do if you want to make the playoffs. Taking the extra points offered in IDP slots is vital to getting these higher scores - they should be scoring a third of your overall team points. If they are not, your IDP lineup needs an upgrade. Note I scored 279 this week even though I have one actual zero and one virtual zero (0.4 points) in my offensive lineup. Part of that was some standout offensive performances, but what will keep my score high week after week will be getting the extra 80points/week from IDP that most other teams aren't getting. If you have zeroes in your lineup (and almost all teams do) you should do the same.
Your team can be better than mine on the offensive side of the ball and I can still blow you out with IDP advantages. The only way to nullify my advantage is to get your own IDP in order. I'd be happy to steamroll the league (again), but even happier to have a more challenging league top-to-bottom.
Week 1 Recap
200+ point scores
279.00 One Percenters
235.45 Philadelphia Martyrs
214.75 Johnson & Johnson
213.10 Longbombs
The significance of 200+ point scores is that if you break that mark, you are highly likely to win your game. Last season, the highest losing score was 218 points - every team who scored more than that won their game that week. Unfortunately for the Martyrs, they scored well above that this week and lost - a result that will probably not happen again this side of the playoffs. The 279 points I scored this week would have been the second best result in all of last year. Doesn't get easier for me, though - I go from playing the second-highest scorer in the league to the third this week against Johnson & Johnson.
An interesting aside, my top 5 draft picks averaged 25 points in Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Lesson
Since I'm the reigning league champ, and got the inside track to repeat with my blowout score this week, I feel I'm in a position to offer some team management advice.
Today's lesson is in "baselining".
Establishing baseline performance
A baseline performance at a position is the highest score among all free agents (not on a roster) assuming perfect rostering by all teams. For example, this league starts 1 QB, so 20 QBs will start. The baseline score at the position would therefore be the 21st best QB result, with 1-20 all being rostered in the ideal case. In 2013, this was Geno Smith with 275 points during the season.
A baseline is the minimum you can expect your opponent to score - you want to do better than that, to win.
In a case where there are two or more slots for a position, the baseline equation is (slots per team x number of teams)+1, so the 61st WR, 41st RB, 21st TE are all baseline-establishing players. Same goes for the defensive side of the ball.
In the case of flex and IDP flex positions, this can push the baseline further down. With one flex W/R/T position, the baseline for WR, RB, and TE will be below the top 20 players that are below the positional baselines, from whichever position they come from. If these are 12 WR, 6 RB, and 2 TE, then the new baselines become the 73rd WR, 47th RB, and 23rd TE.
Last year I calculated baselines for WR and RB at 125 points over the course of the season. My guesses as to other baselines are QB 275, TE 115, LB 65, DL 50, DB 60.
There's no reason to baseline DEF or K because the statistical variation among these players is so small, and performance is so unreliable game to game. Even if you have the best of each, it's still a crapshoot.
Establishing a baseline gives you the ability to set a numeric value on players that can be compared across positions. If I have a 150-point/season LB, I can compare him directly to a WR - the LB gives me +85 points over baseline over the season, so a baseline+85 WR (210 points) is equal value to that LB. Note that these value calculations are different than what Yahoo uses, but they are more accurate.
Make some moves
If there's a glaring need in our league, it's at IDP. There are a shocking number of zeros in rosters this week. If you see a zero, you need to make a change to your roster!
Looking a the performance this week, there are a great many players, especially at DB/DL positions but also at LB, who were among the top scorers yet sit on the free agent list, while team after team is serving up zeroes in their positions. These are FREE POINTS for you if you have a zero. There's no excuse not to drop the zeroes and pick up the guys who actually scored points; the only question is how much better than zero they will be. Some of the guys available are a LOT better, turning in elite-level scoring this week. You MUST grab them to manage your team effectively. If you do not, you are going to lose consistently to teams that do!
D-flex spots
There are two IDP flex spots per team. In almost all cases these should be filled with linebackers. If you have more than 2 DB and 2 DL on your team, you are leaving points on the table every week - linebackers base a point a game or more higher than those positions. D-flex positions should have LB, LB.
It's a Math game
The bottom line is that this is a game of numbers. Higher numbers win. Anything you can do to consistently push your team's number higher on an every-game basis is something you should do if you want to make the playoffs. Taking the extra points offered in IDP slots is vital to getting these higher scores - they should be scoring a third of your overall team points. If they are not, your IDP lineup needs an upgrade. Note I scored 279 this week even though I have one actual zero and one virtual zero (0.4 points) in my offensive lineup. Part of that was some standout offensive performances, but what will keep my score high week after week will be getting the extra 80points/week from IDP that most other teams aren't getting. If you have zeroes in your lineup (and almost all teams do) you should do the same.
Your team can be better than mine on the offensive side of the ball and I can still blow you out with IDP advantages. The only way to nullify my advantage is to get your own IDP in order. I'd be happy to steamroll the league (again), but even happier to have a more challenging league top-to-bottom.
