Exit Poll -- Last 220 Respondants Stacked?

[Jesubub]

Exit Poll -- Last 220 Respondants Stacked or Jacked?

So, when I saw that Paul's CNN exit poll percentages dropped from 14%/5% to 11%/4% when the number of respondents went from 1,300 to 1,520, I decided to see how many Paul supporters were accounted for in that final 220 respondents. Answer: in the absolute worst case, no more than 6, or 2.7%.

When using their rounded percentages, Paul actually lost 10 votes, as seen by the blue numbers. When I pushed the percentages by 1/2 points to account for the most extreme pre-rounding numbers in CNN's favor, the difference was +6, as seen in the orange numbers. Yes, that's an ABSOLUTE best 6 out of 220 to vote for Paul. Not much breathing room, huh.

 

[bp2519]

Thanks for posting this, I noticed the discrepancy this morning too...

 

[Naraku]

What's the worse case for lost votes? They may have rounded down after all.

 

[jillian]

english, please?

 

[liberty_Forever]

bump

 

[Jesubub]

english, please?

CNN may have shaved exit poll votes from Paul to make the poll align better with the votes OR they stacked 220 exit poll responses with no/few Paul votes. The absolute best Paul got was 6 out of 220 votes at the end, when giving the benefit of the doubt on the pre-rounded numbers.

This shows the spread of the absolute minimum number of votes Paul could have had with 1,300 total response versus the maximum number at 1,520 responses. With giving these considerations, the flat numbers show Paul losing 10 votes in the last 220 responses.

 

[Naraku]

Could some of the numbers be rounded down though? There could be more than 10 votes missing.

 

[Jesubub]

Could some of the numbers be rounded down though? There could be more than 10 votes missing.

Yes, but my goal was to show that when giving CNN the benefit of using pre-rounded extremes in their favor, the number (6/220) is nearly ludicrous. Unrounding in the other direction would probably yield about 25 votes subtracted, but there's no point in focusing on that.

 

[gold standard]

Frankly, anything coming from CNN or FOX is suspect in my book.

 

[eric_cartman]

i believe there was election fraud in NH... but there is an explanation for this particular circumstance. on the one hand, you might be right and there was an effort to mess up the last 220... BUT... you have to consider the fact that Ron Paul supporters are more dedicated than those of other candidates. for this reason, Ron Paul supporters are more likely to vote earlier in the day, and not leave it to the last minute to cast their vote... therefore, most of the ron paul supporters made sure to get their vote in early, while other people may have strolled in at the last minute to vote for their favourite puppet.