Economy Savvy Folks (click here)

sidster

Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2008
Messages
1,553
I got an email this morning titled "Road To Recession". This
person has a background in economy and I'd like to reply with
some comments and explain why we need RP to save us or
at least steer us in the right direction. He ends his email with:

The Light at the End of the Tunnel:

1. Fed Reserve will do anything to stop this Recession.
2. The stock market, which is tied closely to the economy, is making a tentative recovery after the last Fed Fund Rate cut to 3%.
3. Fed government, Administration and Congress, ready to provide "stimulus" package to economy...

I'm mainly looking for references to counter 1 and 2. And by
references I don't mean links to some conspiracy theory videos
about The Fed. But some literature postulating how The Fed
has been manipulating the markets, etc.

TIA
 
I got an email this morning titled "Road To Recession". This
person has a background in economy and I'd like to reply with
some comments and explain why we need RP to save us or
at least steer us in the right direction. He ends his email with:



I'm mainly looking for references to counter 1 and 2. And by
references I don't mean links to some conspiracy theory videos
about The Fed. But some literature postulating how The Fed
has been manipulating the markets, etc.

TIA

Federal Reserve can only tighten or loosen money supply.. If they tighten we get a deflationary spiral which they will never do and as they are loosening its causing more inflation.

The problem is the world market for dollars has become saturated.. so the old fix of just creating more dollars wont work now.. Nobody wants to take them.. so now its causing an inflationary spiral
 
Here are some interesting links:

http://www.tarpley.net/29crash.htm

In regards to Ron Paul running for president, it really is irrelevant what the intention of the Federal Reserve is at this point.

What is relevant is that Ron Paul would require accountability from them(their meetings be recorded and made public) and would allow for free market competition. What's so bad about that? What is wrong with me choosing to use a dollar bill backed by something instead of a federal reserve note? If your friend wants to keep his beloved federal reserve, he has that choice still under a Paul administration. But if I want to use honest money, shouldn't I have that choice as well?

People speculate and wonder why corporations on Wall Street do so well against small businesses. The reason is because those corporations are either contracting(with the government) or borrowing on buying power that has been stolen from everyone else with this fiat money system.

I'll break it down simpler:
You have 10 dollars and there is 100 dollars in the whole economy. Economic free market forces will set the prices so that the whole amount of money in the economy reflects the whole amount goods in the economy. So if a gallon of gas reflects 1/100th of the total goods in the economy, then that gallon of gas will cost 1$(if you need proof I can show it to you).

Then the government borrows 100$ for a project from the federal reserve which then gets printed out and injected into the economy. Now there are 200$ in the whole economy making your dollar buy only half as much once that extra 100$ gets spent by the government(if you need proof for how this inflation will occur, ask and I'll show you).

This then makes it seem that the economy is going great since money is getting spent and if you're the one it is being spent on, you get an increased amount of sales. However, due to the new demand for that good/service prices climb up since there is only a limited amount of goods/services. The market then adjusts it's prices. However, as the prices reach what they should be at, sales decline and then people think we are heading in a recession, so they save their money. This means less money being used in the economy. Then the government intervenes again and takes people's buying power to "stimulate the economy". Then we have a boom again.
But during that whole event of things, the central bank who loaned this money expects the money to be paid back. It then requires payment and interest. And every time we make payment we decrease the amount of dollars in the economy. What does that do? This then requires a market adjustment of decreasing the prices, or deflation, to compensate for the decreased amount of dollars in the economy. This then causes a lot of inactivity during that time.

It's kind of like abusing drugs. You have a great time until the hang over in the morning. However, you have to take more and more each time until it eventually can kill you. We are essentially killing the currency which will then require a great many market adjustments to fix and get heading in the right direction.

But the federal reserve problem is the issue. How can we ever get out if the amount owed is greater then M3?
 
1 and 2). The federal reserve is doing everything it can to try to stave off the recession. These are unheard of moves for the fed, going down 0.75% beore the meeting, then another 0.5% afterwards, while also 'injecting' 30 billion dollars at a time into the market - this is money again created out of thin air, loaned out, then is paid back. These injections are loaned at rates even lower than the current 3% rate. Now the fed can lower rates down to 1% or even 0%, but the lower the rate, also creates the carry trade, whereby people borrow money here in the us at a lower rate, take the dollars overseas, exchange them for euros or whatever, then invest the euros in the foreign banks at higher rates. If you can arbitrage even a 0.5 % millions of times over you make a lot of money. But the dollar then has less and less value overseas, (this has already happened to the yen). So you can only do this so much before those dollars come flowing back here to buy something real, which then creates a higher price for that item. Further the fed lowered rates and let everyone have the benefits of the housing boom as well has home equity loans, which probably forestalled the recession for a number of years, and this is why we are now having the real estate crash- the fed can try to do it again but banks are not going to lend to consumers at those low rates again so it won't work a second time. Also of course, people don't want to buy homes when the price is falling either, so even if big banks decided to give the loans out at below market rates, or the loans were guaranteed by the government, I don't think most consumers now will bite again, they have already learned. The fed really doesn't have any ammunition left. Also if you watch rates, rates have come down less than 0.25% for long term home loans since the fed lowered rates 1.25% - meaning it's not working. Also usually the market would react by about a 3% increase for each 0.25% decrease the fed does, but this time the us and world markets hardly moved- the actually fell, when bernacke decreased rates by a 1/2 point - I'm sure the fed bankers were crapping their pants after that. The market is probably not recovering, it's more likely just pausing on the way down.
3). The government can't tax or borrow and spend to create wealth, so passing out checks isn't going to help us in the long run. Otherwise why send us only $600 each, why not make it $6000 or $60,000,000 each - I mean if it really helped the economy we should all be working at printing presses.
Now also the government spending money is generally not going to help the economy- building bombs won't help the economy, think of Bastiat's window analogy. Child throws stone through window, shopkeeper has to buy a new window, and thus 'stimulates' the economy by buying a new window, - but what is 'not seen' is that he would have either spent the money someplace else, buying something he really wanted (and still having his window) or he would have saved/invested it, in which case someone else would spend it on something else deemed useful - thus the money would end up 'stimulating' the economy either way. But in one case you have something new created, in the other, you have something replaced which was destroyed. If the logic worked we should all destroy everything and have the government give us checks to rebuild it...
Longwinded answers I know, sorry.
 
I hear a moron on the radio reiterate that the governments definition of a reccesion is four concurent months of a downturn. Since we have not had that we technically are not in one. I sat in my car in disbelief. First although true the "technical" definition of a reccesion may be true it is lagging. That is to say, once realized, well by that time it's already here. here's the question, are you willing to wait four months to realize a reccesion is afoot? Personaly I like my test alot better. which is determined more about where and "when" money is spent. Government reports are generated after the fact meaning after we spend our money for them to figure out where its going if at all. I like to figure where the money is going in the present, the here and now. I listen to people at the check out counter and they say yep we are in a reccesion. i.e. thier belief (right or wrong) is that we are in one and they will spend accordingly. I thin we are and will do that until I see real progress in policy and litigation.
 
I got an email this morning titled "Road To Recession". This
person has a background in economy and I'd like to reply with
some comments and explain why we need RP to save us or
at least steer us in the right direction. He ends his email with:



I'm mainly looking for references to counter 1 and 2. And by
references I don't mean links to some conspiracy theory videos
about The Fed. But some literature postulating how The Fed
has been manipulating the markets, etc.

TIA

mises.org
 
Basically economics is governed by the law of supply and demand. The Fed manipulates this natural law by keeping interest rates artificially low. They do this by adding to the supply of money (printing it) Eventually though the "natural law" of economics (supply and demand) will take effect and nothing can then stop the inflation that will result. When man tries to control nature he is always doomed to fail maybe not right away but eventually. This will soon be evident as banks are currently and have been writing mortgages with low interest rates. Eventually though inflation will and already is much higher than what they receive in later payments (i.e. the are losing money even if the loans are paid on time and in full) This causes negative reserves for the banks. Which then forces the Fed to continue to lower rates so the banks have enough money to give out. The end result will be hyperinflation and the total loss of value of the currency. It is only a matter of time until this happens the Fed is stuck in a rut and know it.
 
There was a graph that I saw on these forums before that showed the Dow priced in gold, and priced in euros, that was quite persuasive in showing that the US stock market has not actually grown, it's just that the dollar has gone down in value.
 
There was a graph that I saw on these forums before that showed the Dow priced in gold, and priced in euros, that was quite persuasive in showing that the US stock market has not actually grown, it's just that the dollar has gone down in value.

I posted a graph last month in response to Ron's response in a debate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIwlKyz6LvU
in which he referenced a wallstreet journal article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119941453085566759.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The relevant figure:

8ajy8ad.gif
 
Either the fed has to let the market crash from having to deal with the bad loans, or it will bring about hyper inflation and the total devaluation of the US dollar. The longer it delays the crash by artificially stimulating economic activity via inflation, the more bad loans and malinvetsment are going to accumulate and the worse the inevitable crash is going to be
 
I got out of the stock market last week at a highpoint following the fed bump. Now I am thinking about going into gold and silver but the prices seem kind of high. If the market can sustain this weak rally for a few weeks, I am hoping gold and silver will decline a little before I buy. I am definitely planning to buy in well before the next fed rate cut.

Any thoughts on this?
 
Back
Top