econ4every1
Member
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2018
- Messages
- 136
Apologies in advance for the length. There was a lot to address.
Just a comment on the quote. While I agree that government reporting of unemployment, specifically the "official" U6 figure is not indicitive of the true state of unemployment, I'd like to point out that "Shadow Stats" should be taken with a grain of salt.
This is from the Shadow Stats site:
[emphisis mine]
Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c810x.pdf
I'm neither going to confirm or deny Mr. Williams claim about the actual unemployment rate as I have no particular insights into it, I would, however, tend to agree that the way the government reports unemployment is very misleading. I'm inclined to agree the reality is somewhere between the "official number and Mr. Williams estimate. Another category I didn't see mentioned when it comes to unemployment is "underemployment". People who are specifically trained in a particular job, but take one that pays less because they cannot find a job in their chosen field or find/ afford training in a new line of specialized work. I think this is also a very big problem.
Personally, I'm unfamiliar with that.
Totally agree
Disagree.
I'd say that it's not a question of supposed to or not supposed to, rather economics is a difficult subject that does not lend itself to people's intuition about it. Unfortunately, too many people cling to their own intuitive ideas rather than taking the time to question their own assumptions and learn.
Can you link me something to What Kennedy said? Personally, I'm unfamiliar with that.
I'd disagree with that assessment. If I were to oversimplify it as you've done I'd define it like this:
I definitely like the bucket analogy, but I'd suggest that you've left a few things out of your analogy and therefore doesn't reflect economic reality.
Let's define the terms....
If the size of the bucket represents the nations potential output, too little water in the bucket would result in unused capacity (unemployment) and too much water results in the bucket overflowing (inflation).
To be clear, inflation is a rise in prices. Prices rise when demand for goods and services exceeds supply.
Fiscal and monetary policy can both affect the size of the bucket and the amount of water in the bucket but in different ways.
Fiscal policy carried out by Congress increases and decreases the supply of bank reserves via spending and taxing.
However, you haven't identified everything that adds to or removes "water from the bucket".
For example, if you live in a nation that is a net exporter, then water (money) is added to your economy (bucket). How this is accomplished is fairly complicated and depends on several variables I'd be happy to expand on.
In the same way, if your nation (the US for example) is a net importer, that means US dollars are being funneled into accounts of foreign interests that aren't subject to significant taxation if any at all. As it stands today, the foreign sector has accumulated $10 trillion dollars of our money (water). So if you try, in the US, to "balance" the water level in the bucket by having taxes=spending the bucket will drain because the foreign sector is net taking money (about $700 billion per year) and in return is supplying goods and services.
That's part of it.
Wow, quite right. Few people understand this.
Completely disagree.
Being granted independence from Congress is not the same as saying that the Fed is independent of Congress.
I'd be happy to enumerate all that I understand about the relationship between the Fed and Congress (the body that created the Fed and the Body that can dissolve it), but I'll wait as this post is already very long.
Yes, getting back to the bucket analogy, money enters the economy via a "faucet" (spending) and exits via a "drain" (taxes) in the bucket (as examples). THus the faucet and the drain are not connected. However, there's another property of the bucket that is hard to imagine in intuitive terms.
The size of the bucket. Historically the bucket increases in size. Remember that the size of the bucket is meant to represent the productive capacity of the economy. There are a few major factors that influence the buckets size.
The number of people that work in an economy.
How efficient an economy is on a per-capita basis or how much work a person can do.
So for example, in 1980 there were 100 million fewer people and more people, at the time, did bookkeeping in paper ledgers for businesses.
Today there are 100 million more people in the US than in 1980, but as a percentage of the population, thanks to increased efficiency (computers), there is a tiny fraction of people responsible for doing a companies books. Some of this labor shifted into the building, marketing, selling, transporting computers and the rest into other things), but since computers can do more than just accounting (a LOT more), overall efficiency increased and the number of people needed to do work in accounting (and overall) relative to 1980 has decreased thanks to increases in efficiency. So even if the population and more specifically the number of people in the workforce remained exactly the same as 1980, the bucket could get larger because of per-person productivity increases thanks to technology. Of course today we have both increases in technology AND increased the population soi the bucket is larger for two reasons.
Thus, when looking at your bucket, if you balanced spending with taxes (the water level) the water level would stay in the same place, but relative to the size of the bucket would get lower as the bucket got larger thanks to population and efficiency and the water level would actually decline thanks to the nation being a HUGE net exporter.
So for example, below we see the water (dotted line) level is the same, but thanks to more people and increased per-person productivity, potential output (above the line) is greater. Thus maintaining the "water level" will only result in lost productivity and unemployment as fewer people will be able to do the same level of work.
The amount of dollars in the system is a variable when determining the value of money, because no business owner sets their prices based on the quantity of money in the economy because no one knows on any given day how much money is created, how much is destroyed how much is moved into foreign and domestic savings.
The value of money, in the simplest terms, is based on what can be obtained with and what can be obtained with it is subject to the supply and demand of goods and services. As long as overall supply keeps pace with overall demand and prices are stable, the value of the dollar is maintained.
Now, as I said, creating and spending more money can cause the value of money to decline as the demand for goods and services increases relative to supply, but the economy has become pretty good at dealing with fluctuations in demand. The best example of this is Christmas. Demand is high yet prices are the same or lower (sales). This is because increases are predicted and output and inventories are expanded in anticipation of increased demand because the potential for increased output does not require large-scale financed spending for "plant and equipment" (capital resources).
The economy as a whole has a certain amount of elasticity to it, thus short-term changes, if predicted and even some unpredicted have minimal impact.
People borrow money over Christmas (increasing the amount of money circulating in the economy), but that increased money is met with increased or greater output, resulting in the same or lower prices.
Every dollar on a credit card is potential spending, does the amount of potential money affect the value of the dollar?
No, of course not, because sellers set prices based on the demand for their goods relative to the supply not based on the number of dollars.
By way of analogy, it would be incorrect to assume that auto accidents are caused by the motion of a car, yet, you cannot have an accident unless your care is moving. Would it be correct to assume that motion causes accidents? No, because we know cars can move without crashing. Thus, movement, or more specifically the rate of movement relative to external variables determines the risk of crashing, in the same way, you cannot have inflation without money, but it's not correct to say that money causes inflation (price inflation). The amount of money relative to external variables causes inflation. Thus, you must define the state of the external variables (conditions) before it can be concluded that an increase in money caused an increase in overall prices.
That would only be true if productive output were fixed. However, as we both know it's not.
While the IRS is the organization that collects taxes, why not just say "taxes"?
The Fed does not determine the money supply. The Fed influences the cost of money via open market operations. This adds to or reduces the supply of banking reserves. However, the system as it existed between 1974-2008 was undone thanks to the GFC. I don't want to make this any longer than it is, so I'll skip, for now how the new system works, however, let me be clear, banks DO not determine the total amount of money in the economy because every single dollar a bank creates is offset with an equal liability. That liability must be settled by destroying real money that already exists in the economy (*again, something I'd be happy to explain in a follow-up).
We can address this in a follow-up.
I'm not Zippy, but I disagree as well.
You'd have to explain why you think it matters.
Keynes was a smart guy, but the money system has changed significantly since he wrote and commented on the economy. You have to know what has changed and how it changes the conclusions he made.
Calling people in the US economic "slaves" is an insult to those who suffer real economic slavery thought the world. People in the US experience one of the highest levels of living in the world, especially when you factor in the size and diversity of our population. Certainly, I would agree that the system, the way it's employed right now benefits people, like myself, at the higher end (I'm not rich by any sense of the imagination, but there is nothing that anyone could offer me that I need. I am fortunate that I have only wants and many of those are fulfilled.
I did not achieve economic independence via business ownership, so perhaps someone here can correct me, but most businesses raise capital by attracting investors, sometimes individuals, but I imagine there are businesses that represent groups of investors in order to diversify and minimize risk. If a person is to risk their money, should they not have some say in what they are willing to risk it in? Shouldn't the incentives to lend be based mostly on profit and not political motivation at least in the private sector?
So you don't believe it's because "free energy for everyone " was a bad idea from an investors point-of-view and that's why they pulled funding?
Ironically, eliminating the Fed would put Congress in control of both Monetary and Fiscal policy. At that point, the government, incentivize by politics, would determine winners and losers, rather than banks, which are motivated by profit.
Respectfully,
E4E1
Just a comment on the quote. While I agree that government reporting of unemployment, specifically the "official" U6 figure is not indicitive of the true state of unemployment, I'd like to point out that "Shadow Stats" should be taken with a grain of salt.
This is from the Shadow Stats site:
The ShadowStats number—a broad unemployment measure more in line with common experience—is my estimate. The approximation of the ShadowStats “long-term discouraged worker” category—those otherwise largely defined out of statistical existence in 1994—reflects proprietary modeling based on a variety of private and public surveying over the last two-plus decades. Beyond using the BLS U.6 estimate as an underlying monthly base, I have not found a way of accounting fully for the current unemployment circumstance and common experience using just the monthly headline data from the BLS.
[emphisis mine]
Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c810x.pdf
I'm neither going to confirm or deny Mr. Williams claim about the actual unemployment rate as I have no particular insights into it, I would, however, tend to agree that the way the government reports unemployment is very misleading. I'm inclined to agree the reality is somewhere between the "official number and Mr. Williams estimate. Another category I didn't see mentioned when it comes to unemployment is "underemployment". People who are specifically trained in a particular job, but take one that pays less because they cannot find a job in their chosen field or find/ afford training in a new line of specialized work. I think this is also a very big problem.
Anyone remember Stiff the Fed?
Personally, I'm unfamiliar with that.
I think this may only be half of the solution that is absolutely necessary to stabilize the money system. Most people, including far too many Libertarians do not fully understand how our money system works.
Totally agree
It is not their fault.
Disagree.
People that do not understand are not supposed to understand.
I'd say that it's not a question of supposed to or not supposed to, rather economics is a difficult subject that does not lend itself to people's intuition about it. Unfortunately, too many people cling to their own intuitive ideas rather than taking the time to question their own assumptions and learn.
It is that very confusion that creates an opportunity to hide in secrecy, just as JFK warned us about. Let's explain this clearly so that everyone can understand how our money system works without confusion.
Can you link me something to What Kennedy said? Personally, I'm unfamiliar with that.
Whether it is accurate or not, we have all heard the term the "govt just prints money". It is a half truth because it is greatly oversimplified. To understand what really happens, the Terms need to be more easily explained for everyone.
- Monetary Policy - Print the money (yes, oversimplified)
- Fiscal Plicy - Destroy the money (Federal Income Tax)
I'd disagree with that assessment. If I were to oversimplify it as you've done I'd define it like this:
- Monetary policy - Responsible for setting the cost of money. This is largely carried out by the Fed.
- Fiscal policy - Responsible for spending so the government can provision itself and taxes to offset (some or all) spending. This is determined by Congress.
In order to maintain "balance" in this type of system, the money that is "printed" must also be destroyed. If you have a bucket of water, and just continue to pour more and more water into the bucket, it will overflow and water will be wasted. What also happens is that the value of each smaller measurement of water is devalued, the purchasing power continues to go down.
I definitely like the bucket analogy, but I'd suggest that you've left a few things out of your analogy and therefore doesn't reflect economic reality.
Let's define the terms....
If the size of the bucket represents the nations potential output, too little water in the bucket would result in unused capacity (unemployment) and too much water results in the bucket overflowing (inflation).
To be clear, inflation is a rise in prices. Prices rise when demand for goods and services exceeds supply.
Fiscal and monetary policy can both affect the size of the bucket and the amount of water in the bucket but in different ways.
Fiscal Policy is a system that is designed to reduce the total volume of money.
Fiscal policy carried out by Congress increases and decreases the supply of bank reserves via spending and taxing.
Again, refer to the bucket of water. If you remove as much water from the bucket as you put in, you have a "balance".
However, you haven't identified everything that adds to or removes "water from the bucket".
For example, if you live in a nation that is a net exporter, then water (money) is added to your economy (bucket). How this is accomplished is fairly complicated and depends on several variables I'd be happy to expand on.
In the same way, if your nation (the US for example) is a net importer, that means US dollars are being funneled into accounts of foreign interests that aren't subject to significant taxation if any at all. As it stands today, the foreign sector has accumulated $10 trillion dollars of our money (water). So if you try, in the US, to "balance" the water level in the bucket by having taxes=spending the bucket will drain because the foreign sector is net taking money (about $700 billion per year) and in return is supplying goods and services.
When you hear most people refer to Fiscal Policy, it is both expressed and thought of by most people as "Taxation" which means to "collect money".
That's part of it.
There are major problems with the way that people understand this. First, the Federal Government does NOT use Federal Income Tax to fund its expenses. What is collected by the Federal Income Tax is NOT used to fund the Federal Government. Not One Cent. Period. Second, the currency that has been collected by Federal Income Tax does NOT stay in circulation. Since the government does not use Federal Income Tax to fund any expenditures at all, that money (non tangible such as a checking acct balance) is quite literally destroyed.
Wow, quite right. Few people understand this.
The next major misconception that causes confusion is that the IRS is a part of the Federal Government. It is not. The IRS is the counterpart to the Federal Reserve Bank, which, despite the confusion inferred by the name is also not a part of the Federal Government. The Federal Reserve Bank is no more Federal than Federal Express.
Completely disagree.
Being granted independence from Congress is not the same as saying that the Fed is independent of Congress.
I'd be happy to enumerate all that I understand about the relationship between the Fed and Congress (the body that created the Fed and the Body that can dissolve it), but I'll wait as this post is already very long.
Both the money creation and money destruction are part of the designed system.
Yes, getting back to the bucket analogy, money enters the economy via a "faucet" (spending) and exits via a "drain" (taxes) in the bucket (as examples). THus the faucet and the drain are not connected. However, there's another property of the bucket that is hard to imagine in intuitive terms.
The size of the bucket. Historically the bucket increases in size. Remember that the size of the bucket is meant to represent the productive capacity of the economy. There are a few major factors that influence the buckets size.
The number of people that work in an economy.
How efficient an economy is on a per-capita basis or how much work a person can do.
So for example, in 1980 there were 100 million fewer people and more people, at the time, did bookkeeping in paper ledgers for businesses.
Today there are 100 million more people in the US than in 1980, but as a percentage of the population, thanks to increased efficiency (computers), there is a tiny fraction of people responsible for doing a companies books. Some of this labor shifted into the building, marketing, selling, transporting computers and the rest into other things), but since computers can do more than just accounting (a LOT more), overall efficiency increased and the number of people needed to do work in accounting (and overall) relative to 1980 has decreased thanks to increases in efficiency. So even if the population and more specifically the number of people in the workforce remained exactly the same as 1980, the bucket could get larger because of per-person productivity increases thanks to technology. Of course today we have both increases in technology AND increased the population soi the bucket is larger for two reasons.
Thus, when looking at your bucket, if you balanced spending with taxes (the water level) the water level would stay in the same place, but relative to the size of the bucket would get lower as the bucket got larger thanks to population and efficiency and the water level would actually decline thanks to the nation being a HUGE net exporter.
So for example, below we see the water (dotted line) level is the same, but thanks to more people and increased per-person productivity, potential output (above the line) is greater. Thus maintaining the "water level" will only result in lost productivity and unemployment as fewer people will be able to do the same level of work.
Both the Federal Reserve Bank and the IRS were created by the 16th Amendment, and both are needed to "balance" the system. If you have too much currency in the system, the purchasing power of each individual dollar decreases by a proportional amount to the increase in the money supply.
The amount of dollars in the system is a variable when determining the value of money, because no business owner sets their prices based on the quantity of money in the economy because no one knows on any given day how much money is created, how much is destroyed how much is moved into foreign and domestic savings.
The value of money, in the simplest terms, is based on what can be obtained with and what can be obtained with it is subject to the supply and demand of goods and services. As long as overall supply keeps pace with overall demand and prices are stable, the value of the dollar is maintained.
Now, as I said, creating and spending more money can cause the value of money to decline as the demand for goods and services increases relative to supply, but the economy has become pretty good at dealing with fluctuations in demand. The best example of this is Christmas. Demand is high yet prices are the same or lower (sales). This is because increases are predicted and output and inventories are expanded in anticipation of increased demand because the potential for increased output does not require large-scale financed spending for "plant and equipment" (capital resources).
The economy as a whole has a certain amount of elasticity to it, thus short-term changes, if predicted and even some unpredicted have minimal impact.
People borrow money over Christmas (increasing the amount of money circulating in the economy), but that increased money is met with increased or greater output, resulting in the same or lower prices.
Every dollar on a credit card is potential spending, does the amount of potential money affect the value of the dollar?
No, of course not, because sellers set prices based on the demand for their goods relative to the supply not based on the number of dollars.
By way of analogy, it would be incorrect to assume that auto accidents are caused by the motion of a car, yet, you cannot have an accident unless your care is moving. Would it be correct to assume that motion causes accidents? No, because we know cars can move without crashing. Thus, movement, or more specifically the rate of movement relative to external variables determines the risk of crashing, in the same way, you cannot have inflation without money, but it's not correct to say that money causes inflation (price inflation). The amount of money relative to external variables causes inflation. Thus, you must define the state of the external variables (conditions) before it can be concluded that an increase in money caused an increase in overall prices.
If you have a total volume of 100 dollars and print up one new dollar, that new dollar gets its value from the existing currency, causing the value of the existing currency to go down. Thus, with a total of 101 dollars, the purchasing power of each dollar drops to 99 cents. The way to balance the system here would be to "Tax" one dollar out of circulation, reducing the total volume of money back to 100, and in theory, cause the existing currency to retain its purchasing power.
That would only be true if productive output were fixed. However, as we both know it's not.
The big problem is that there are two systems in place that work together. Removing only one part of the system unbalances the entire system. Remove just the IRS and the money supply increases.
While the IRS is the organization that collects taxes, why not just say "taxes"?
Remove just the Federal Reserve Bank and the money supply decreases.
The Fed does not determine the money supply. The Fed influences the cost of money via open market operations. This adds to or reduces the supply of banking reserves. However, the system as it existed between 1974-2008 was undone thanks to the GFC. I don't want to make this any longer than it is, so I'll skip, for now how the new system works, however, let me be clear, banks DO not determine the total amount of money in the economy because every single dollar a bank creates is offset with an equal liability. That liability must be settled by destroying real money that already exists in the economy (*again, something I'd be happy to explain in a follow-up).
Abolishing the IRS is part of the solution, but what no layman is ever taught is that they need to focus just as hard on removing and replacing the Federal Reserve Bank, and its banknotes with US Treasury bank notes.
We can address this in a follow-up.
Despite anything that Zippyjuan will say, this is what makes Central Banks more dangerous than standing armies to the long-term survival of all nations.
I'm not Zippy, but I disagree as well.
Please note that I have purposefully oversimplified the functions and have not factored in Interest at all.
You'd have to explain why you think it matters.
This is Keynesian Economics at its most simple form, and in theory, it works. Does it work in practice? You tell me. Take a look around. Tell me if this money system frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, or enslaves them?
Keynes was a smart guy, but the money system has changed significantly since he wrote and commented on the economy. You have to know what has changed and how it changes the conclusions he made.
Calling people in the US economic "slaves" is an insult to those who suffer real economic slavery thought the world. People in the US experience one of the highest levels of living in the world, especially when you factor in the size and diversity of our population. Certainly, I would agree that the system, the way it's employed right now benefits people, like myself, at the higher end (I'm not rich by any sense of the imagination, but there is nothing that anyone could offer me that I need. I am fortunate that I have only wants and many of those are fulfilled.
You tell me if a small business will be granted a loan, not based solely on their credit reputation, but on the intended function of the business. You tell me if a mom and pop publication would be granted a loan to print information that discredits our entire banking and money system.
I did not achieve economic independence via business ownership, so perhaps someone here can correct me, but most businesses raise capital by attracting investors, sometimes individuals, but I imagine there are businesses that represent groups of investors in order to diversify and minimize risk. If a person is to risk their money, should they not have some say in what they are willing to risk it in? Shouldn't the incentives to lend be based mostly on profit and not political motivation at least in the private sector?
You tell me if JP Morgan pulled funding from Nikolai Tesla who intended to create free electricity for everyone.
So you don't believe it's because "free energy for everyone " was a bad idea from an investors point-of-view and that's why they pulled funding?
You tell me if a cheap cancer cure would be funded, or denied in favor of more expensive and less effective medical treatments. You tell me if the direction of our country is determined by a small group of dominant men or not, who control that direction by issue of credit and currency.
You tell me if our money system is Honest.
Ironically, eliminating the Fed would put Congress in control of both Monetary and Fiscal policy. At that point, the government, incentivize by politics, would determine winners and losers, rather than banks, which are motivated by profit.
Respectfully,
E4E1
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