Economic Poll: Crash, when or not?

[parke]

Please vote:

 

[ultimaonliner]

How do you define "crash"?

Are you speaking about a decline in the S&P at a certain % for a single day?


Are we talking 6%, 10%, or like a 1987 style 25%?

 

[misericordia]

the market has crashed.

 

[Original_Intent]

Yeah hard to define "crash".

They are talking 8000-8500 DOW within a year on squakbox Europe right now.

If we go 1929 then a 5K DOW is not out of the question.

It feels like this is different than the dot coms - I mean the financials kind of underpin everything. The question is, as this bubble bursts what will be the next bubble? PMs?

 

[misericordia]

the market is crashing.

 

[ultimaonliner]

Yeah hard to define "crash".

They are talking 8000-8500 DOW within a year on squakbox Europe right now.

If we go 1929 then a 5K DOW is not out of the question.

It feels like this is different than the dot coms - I mean the financials kind of underpin everything. The question is, as this bubble bursts what will be the next bubble? PMs?

The '87 crash was about a 25% haircut.

The difference with the economic climate now, compared to '28-29 and '86-87, is that sentiment is very negative now.

Back then, the markets were raging and getting choppy until the crash.

I'm not saying it can't happen, a 25% haircut, but that is nearly impossible to predict.

I can easily forsee a 10% haircut in a single day, but I would bet that we have more like a post 1995 Japan recession with a bear market interrupted with short bear market rallies.

Kind of like what we've had for the past year, but continuing for years more.

 

[PlzPeopleWakeUp]

nt

 

[pacelli]

I've never been fully convinced that Bush is ready to step down.

 

[Joseph Hart]

Global markets will devalue the dollar within a couple weeks or less. I say before the election.

 

[RickyJ]

I've never been fully convinced that Bush is ready to step down.

I have never been fully convinced that he ever stepped up.

 

[Minuteman]

it really depends on foreign investors right now. Will they fall for the same ole shit from the Fed, or wise up.

 

[Conza88]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3137133136651301187

Blue Car is the US economy...

White Car is Greenspan....

Yellow Car is Bernanke...

Ambulance is Ron Paul / Austrian Economists....

The Driver is the individual survivalists / Ron Paul supporters / people who've prepared for the coming depression.

 

[Drknows]

anything could happen at this point. but i think we have a ways to go before total panic. Coca-Cola is still doing good.

 

[parke]

How do you define "crash"?

Are you speaking about a decline in the S&P at a certain % for a single day?


Are we talking 6%, 10%, or like a 1987 style 25%?

I have no idea really. I think what may come could be the worst in world history. Ill keep my head up, but my gut tells me to worry.

 

[parke]

it really depends on foreign investors right now. Will they fall for the same ole shit from the Fed, or wise up.

Everybody overseas sure has a nervous look on their face.