Economic Death Watch

[thomaspaine23]

Alot of people know the economy is going south, but many may not realize how bad this is going to get.

Link

"DJ MARKET TALK: Baltic Dry Index Drops To 21-Year Low

1407 GMT (Dow Jones) Baltic Exchange Dry Index drops 41 points to 763, its
lowest level since January 1987, as a lack of momentum in steel prices has
removed any near-term catalyst from the market, says Omar Nokta at Dalhman
Rose. The average Capesize rate has been "assessed lower 36 out of the past 37
trading days," he notes, with the time charter average for Capesizes at $2,773
Wednesday. Nokta adds a large backlog of vessels remains in ballast in both the
Atlantic and Pacific due to the sluggish steel demand. BDI -44%, or 339 points,
from 1102 a month ago. (APA) "


The Baltic Dry index is a survey of the average cost for shipping raw materials.
It cannot be manipulated like unemployment and GDP figures. It is not a traded
index, just an average survey of shipping costs from point A to B.

It has collapsed in the last couple of months (Down ~95% from May). Raw materials are not being shipped. This means metal,lumber,grain etc....

Without the raw materials, factories will not be able to make finished goods.
This means no factory jobs and no goods for store shelves.
No goods mean nothing to transport.
Nothing to transport means no trucking/rail shipments
No shipments mean transport companies go bankrupt.
This means there may be no one to ship the vital supplies (food,medicine,gasoline)

Forget the stock market it's like a body that doesn't know its dead yet.....


FWIW the dry index lost another 30 points today.



http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

 

[RonPaulCentral]

Trucking is almost dead as it is... all you have to do is go drive on a major Interstate. There are hardly any trucks.

You are correct on your post; things are on a true collapse. There is something else pretty major coming very soon that unfortunately I am not at liberty to discuss but it is all pointing to a major SHTF type event in late Feb 09 or early Mar 09. As soon as more people are in the loop I will be posting about it. I just happen to be lucky enough to have a friend the works in a position of trust that he is privy to this info. The only reason I even know is because we have been friends for 32 years and there is total trust... he knows I will keep my mouth shut until he says differently.

We are honestly about to experience things here in the U.S. none of us have ever had to experience before. I can not express how damn important it is RIGHT NOW, not next week or the week after but RIGHT NOW to go stock up on essentials and food/water. People need to start taking all these warnings seriously and stop walking around like the living dead before they find themselves becoming the non-living variety.

Be safe and Happy Thanksgiving to you.

 

[sidster]

not sure if quite understand everything mentioned her, but interesting...

 

[heavenlyboy34]

Trucking is almost dead as it is... all you have to do is go drive on a major Interstate. There are hardly any trucks.

You are correct on your post; things are on a true collapse. There is something else pretty major coming very soon that unfortunately I am not at liberty to discuss but it is all pointing to a major SHTF type event in late Feb 09 or early Mar 09. As soon as more people are in the loop I will be posting about it. I just happen to be lucky enough to have a friend the works in a position of trust that he is privy to this info. The only reason I even know is because we have been friends for 32 years and there is total trust... he knows I will keep my mouth shut until he says differently.

We are honestly about to experience things here in the U.S. none of us have ever had to experience before. I can not express how damn important it is RIGHT NOW, not next week or the week after but RIGHT NOW to go stock up on essentials and food/water. People need to start taking all these warnings seriously and stop walking around like the living dead before they find themselves becoming the non-living variety.

Be safe and Happy Thanksgiving to you.

It's sad, indeed. Happy turkey day to you too.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Trucking is almost dead as it is... all you have to do is go drive on a major Interstate. There are hardly any trucks.

You are correct on your post; things are on a true collapse. There is something else pretty major coming very soon that unfortunately I am not at liberty to discuss but it is all pointing to a major SHTF type event in late Feb 09 or early Mar 09. As soon as more people are in the loop I will be posting about it. I just happen to be lucky enough to have a friend the works in a position of trust that he is privy to this info. The only reason I even know is because we have been friends for 32 years and there is total trust... he knows I will keep my mouth shut until he says differently.

We are honestly about to experience things here in the U.S. none of us have ever had to experience before. I can not express how damn important it is RIGHT NOW, not next week or the week after but RIGHT NOW to go stock up on essentials and food/water. People need to start taking all these warnings seriously and stop walking around like the living dead before they find themselves becoming the non-living variety.

Be safe and Happy Thanksgiving to you.

Hmm...we'll see.

If you're "channeling" Ghemmy, im'a gonna be pissed.

If not, there comes a time when duty to a friend might be a secondary concern if the right information, given in time, could allow for the tweaking of preparation plans that could possibly saves thousands of lives.

Put another way, if this is for real, then don't sit on that information for so long that it does no good once you decide to divulge it.

 

[thomaspaine23]

not sure if quite understand everything mentioned her, but interesting...

Cargo shipping. The Index tracks the cost of sending raw materials via ship.
It is below operating costs right now....

This means no one is shipping anything.

On top of this I know a guy who works at a transport terminal, i.e. trucks and railcars come in to either pick up cargo from a port, or drop it off.

They normally would do 1000 containers a day, and 1100+ during the holidays.
It went down to about 350 or so a couple weeks ago.

Last I heard from him it was so dead he took a nap for an hour and a half at work, and no one even noticed....

 

[RonPaulCentral]

Hmm...we'll see.

If you're "channeling" Ghemmy, im'a gonna be pissed.

If not, there comes a time when duty to a friend might be a secondary concern if the right information, given in time, could allow for the tweaking of preparation plans that could possibly saves thousands of lives.

Put another way, if this is for real, then don't sit on that information for so long that it does no good once you decide to divulge it.

No no... it is nothing passed around here before.

It is for real and yes, you are correct, if it takes too long before I get the "ok" my conscience will win out and I will disclose the info.

I hope you take me seriously. It is very important to get food/water storage taken care and DO IT RIGHT NOW. You should not have less then 3 mo per person, 1 year per person being best. You need to have essentials (soap, personal sanitation items, batteries, heat source for cooking, etc) set aside as well. Last I highly suggest having a serious method of protection (AR-15 minimum) and plenty of lead (5,000-10,000 rounds) set aside. Soon you might find ALL these items to be VERY expensive or impossible to locate.

What looks to be coming is VERY serious. I hope it doesn't take place but unfortunately due to the absolute idiots in charge of our country at the moment *I* personally don't see how it could be avoided.

One thing that you should keep an eye on and that is going to be the MASSIVE amount of company bankruptcies that follow just after the 1st of January (retail). The car industry can not be saved. There are hundreds of thousands of cars sitting on retail lots and they are NOT moving. The time necessary to engineer, prototype, plant draft and retool to produce anything new (even if they DID have the answer of what to make) is *YEARS*. Expect MAJOR job losses in that industry as well. Think massive displacement.

A major mindset change has taken place with the American people. There is the highest level of distrust of govt and its officials in a long long time. We tease the sheople for being... well sheople... but even the blindest of them all are starting to see some of the bigger picture.

Anyhow... PLEASE if you do nothing else prepare yourself and family. Remember even *IF* nothing happens (highly doubtful) you can always eat your stored food, you can always drink the water, you can always sell your ammo or shoot it.... nothing is risked.

Be safe!

 

[Anti Federalist]

I hope you take me seriously. It is very important to get food/water storage taken care and DO IT RIGHT NOW. You should not have less then 3 mo per person, 1 year per person being best. You need to have essentials (soap, personal sanitation items, batteries, heat source for cooking, etc) set aside as well. Last I highly suggest having a serious method of protection (AR-15 minimum) and plenty of lead (5,000-10,000 rounds) set aside. Soon you might find ALL these items to be VERY expensive or impossible to locate.

That's been done long ago.

I'm about as stocked as I can be.

We'll see what happens.

Happy Thanksgiving.