Duane Crumbacher - OK State Senate district 48
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Update:
Duane reports that a few more significant donations have come in, and he is now only several hundred dollars away from getting some yard signs! If you have not donated yet, PLEASE do so, as time is starting to run short. The democrat pittman has had several more of her large signs go up, this time in my part of the district. Duane is going to need some signs here. Can we make sure that he gets them? Between everyone here on RPF, surely we can come up with a couple hundred to get another five-star Liberty Candidate into office! I've already donated all that I can, how about YOU?
Duane reports that a few more significant donations have come in, and he is now only several hundred dollars away from getting some yard signs! If you have not donated yet, PLEASE do so, as time is starting to run short. The democrat pittman has had several more of her large signs go up, this time in my part of the district. Duane is going to need some signs here. Can we make sure that he gets them? Between everyone here on RPF, surely we can come up with a couple hundred to get another five-star Liberty Candidate into office! I've already donated all that I can, how about YOU?
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William Tell
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I know some people here are good at setting up money bombs. Can anybody help help out on promoting it here? this is the sort of race that matters!
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Today's knocking was interesting. As I was walking past, one girl on her porch called out to me, and asked if I was out asking people to vote for a candidate. If she was a voter, she was obviously a democrat, since she wasn't on my knock list. I walked up and gave her a piece of campaign literature, and she asked why I was out trying to get people to vote for a Republican in this neighborhood. When I explained that I lived in the neighborhood myself, told her where, and that Duane was running on a platform of criminal justice reform, her eyes widened. She asked me to convince her why she should vote for a Republican, and started grilling me (pretty brutally, too) on the issues. Eventually her brother came out and joined in. They were quite intelligent and informed. I spent a fair amount of time with them, then started to excuse myself by saying that they were welcome to call the number and talk to Duane himself if they had any further questions. She immediately picked up her phone and started dialing, and asked my name. I gave it to her and explained that he might not answer because he was out doing the very same thing, but would call back as soon as he finished talking with whoever he might be with at the moment. She left a message, and the conversation ended with her telling me that she would vote for him if he actually called her back. In talking to Duane later in the evening, he said that she not only told him that she would vote for him, but that she would also talk all her friends into voting for him as well!
At another point, while walking down the street, someone driving by stopped, pulled up next to me, and said hello. I said good afternoon, and they asked if I was out getting people to vote. He thanked me for the piece of campaign literature, said he would look into Duane, and drove off.
Duane unfortunately didn't get the funding he needed for yard signs. However, he did get enough to send out a nice mailer. I'll post pictures of it soon, it's another great piece of work. A few signs for pittman have gone up in public places, but none in anyone's yard, and there aren't very many. Someone knocking today reported seeing a mailer from pittman sticking out of someone's mailbox, so it looks like that's all her campaign has consisted of, and it's too late for her to do anything else, especially like assemble and execute a ground game. Kenny Bob Tapp is coming into town tomorrow to help knock. Some people came in from the Tulsa area today to help. It looks like we'll be able to finish covering the entire district before the election. Hopefully a well-played ground game will make the difference and put Duane over the top for a win!
At another point, while walking down the street, someone driving by stopped, pulled up next to me, and said hello. I said good afternoon, and they asked if I was out getting people to vote. He thanked me for the piece of campaign literature, said he would look into Duane, and drove off.
Duane unfortunately didn't get the funding he needed for yard signs. However, he did get enough to send out a nice mailer. I'll post pictures of it soon, it's another great piece of work. A few signs for pittman have gone up in public places, but none in anyone's yard, and there aren't very many. Someone knocking today reported seeing a mailer from pittman sticking out of someone's mailbox, so it looks like that's all her campaign has consisted of, and it's too late for her to do anything else, especially like assemble and execute a ground game. Kenny Bob Tapp is coming into town tomorrow to help knock. Some people came in from the Tulsa area today to help. It looks like we'll be able to finish covering the entire district before the election. Hopefully a well-played ground game will make the difference and put Duane over the top for a win!
Great work!
One of the great things about doing these local campaigns is that win or lose, you may have recruited some new followers to the cause of liberty. Ideas multiply. Good luck to Duane!
https://www.facebook.com/candidates4libertydotcom/posts/312926858892823
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At this point, the campaign has wrapped up, and we've done all we can do. The only thing left is voting tomorrow and waiting for the results to come in. In today's door knocking, I saw the only two non black faces answering the door. One girl was white, the other looked Mexican and refused the campaign literature, saying that her family didn't vote (hmmmm). Other than that, every single person thoughout the campaign who has answered the door has been black. It's certainly been an interesting experience, working the black and crossover democrat votes almost exclusively. All precincts have been knocked except one, and there were 3-4 more that were 80-90% completed. Not bad for an entire district.
The biggest problem Duane has had is running in a gerrymandered district. The campaign fell short on both volunteers and donations, and I suspect that it was due to people writing his race off for this reason. We had neither the manpower or the donations necessary to pull off the second phase of the campaign to target democrats with door knocking or a mailer, and had no choice but to focus entirely on households registered Republican or independent. We just simply did the best we could with what we had. Hopefully it will be enough.
This was an extremely difficult race to analyze. Since the district was drawn, no Republican has ever tried to run in it. Connie Johnson came in via a special election, and since she has run unopposed every time, no numbers exist to analyze except for voter registrations. The conclusions we were able to come to were:
1) Turnout is traditionally low in the midterms, making GOTV efforts crucial
2) The numbers of registered voters in the district were inflated for democrats, due to people who don't usually vote registering just to vote for obomba in the last 8 years
3) These voters are neither motivated or informed enough to vote in the midterm elections
4) The democrat pittman didn't really campaign, and took the election for granted
Because of this, the campaign came to the conclusion that if we were able to GOTV effectively, there would be enough Republican and independent voters to win. So we're banking on low democrat turnout in the midterms, and that our ground campaign was effective to GOTV. The wildcard here is Connie Johnson running against wankford for the US Senate. Since she is very popular in the district, it's possible that she may draw more democrats to the polls than would otherwise happen in a midterm election.
I'd like to thank those dedicated Ron Paul supporters who worked as hard as they could to pull this off, especially Mark Thomas, Charles Key, and Kenny Bob Tapp (who drove in all the way from the panhandle to help knock doors). A special thanks also goes out to Bryan for donating the banner ad here for Duane's fundraising efforts. And another thanks to those of you who donated. All of you helped make this campaign possible.
If Duane wins, it will be a very, very sweet victory. We had to pull this campaign off on a shoestring budget, Duane didn't even get enough donations to get yard signs. A victory will have come almost entirely from a ground game. The democrat didn't even really run a campaign at all - she only made one campaign appearance, never talked to the voters, only put up a few signs in public places, and sent out a mailer. Personally, I peg Duane's chances at 50-50. It's either going to be a very narrow upset victory, or a landslide loss. After all the hard work we did, I really hope we're able to pull this one off.
Edit: Here are some further thoughts on an attempt to quantify Duane's chances.
Both candidates sent mailers out. Duane's was sent to R and I households. It is unknown whether pittman's mailer only went out to d households, or included the I's. I suspect the latter. So both candidates seemed to make an equal effort here.
Campaign appearances - Duane made 3 campaign appearances, plus his fundraising event. In each of these appearances, he talked with the voters afterwards, and got an overwhelmingly positive response. pittman made one appearance, didn't speak on the issues at all, and ducked out early to avoid all contact with the voters.
Signs - Duane didn't have any at all. pittman has perhaps a dozen of them up in public locations, none of them are in anyone's yard.
Ground game - pittman had none whatsoever. Duane knocked doors of probably somewhere around 90%+ of R and I registered households. The responses I personally got, both knocking doors and at campaign appearances, were overwhelmingly positive. Others reported the same results.
Gunny proved that a district like this is quite winnable. The only thing that Duane didn't have compared to his opponent was yard signs, and even then, her effort was minimal. The big question here is, will more campaign appearances of higher quality, plus the ground game, be enough to offset the approximately 5% gerrymandering of the district?
The biggest problem Duane has had is running in a gerrymandered district. The campaign fell short on both volunteers and donations, and I suspect that it was due to people writing his race off for this reason. We had neither the manpower or the donations necessary to pull off the second phase of the campaign to target democrats with door knocking or a mailer, and had no choice but to focus entirely on households registered Republican or independent. We just simply did the best we could with what we had. Hopefully it will be enough.
This was an extremely difficult race to analyze. Since the district was drawn, no Republican has ever tried to run in it. Connie Johnson came in via a special election, and since she has run unopposed every time, no numbers exist to analyze except for voter registrations. The conclusions we were able to come to were:
1) Turnout is traditionally low in the midterms, making GOTV efforts crucial
2) The numbers of registered voters in the district were inflated for democrats, due to people who don't usually vote registering just to vote for obomba in the last 8 years
3) These voters are neither motivated or informed enough to vote in the midterm elections
4) The democrat pittman didn't really campaign, and took the election for granted
Because of this, the campaign came to the conclusion that if we were able to GOTV effectively, there would be enough Republican and independent voters to win. So we're banking on low democrat turnout in the midterms, and that our ground campaign was effective to GOTV. The wildcard here is Connie Johnson running against wankford for the US Senate. Since she is very popular in the district, it's possible that she may draw more democrats to the polls than would otherwise happen in a midterm election.
I'd like to thank those dedicated Ron Paul supporters who worked as hard as they could to pull this off, especially Mark Thomas, Charles Key, and Kenny Bob Tapp (who drove in all the way from the panhandle to help knock doors). A special thanks also goes out to Bryan for donating the banner ad here for Duane's fundraising efforts. And another thanks to those of you who donated. All of you helped make this campaign possible.
If Duane wins, it will be a very, very sweet victory. We had to pull this campaign off on a shoestring budget, Duane didn't even get enough donations to get yard signs. A victory will have come almost entirely from a ground game. The democrat didn't even really run a campaign at all - she only made one campaign appearance, never talked to the voters, only put up a few signs in public places, and sent out a mailer. Personally, I peg Duane's chances at 50-50. It's either going to be a very narrow upset victory, or a landslide loss. After all the hard work we did, I really hope we're able to pull this one off.
Edit: Here are some further thoughts on an attempt to quantify Duane's chances.
Both candidates sent mailers out. Duane's was sent to R and I households. It is unknown whether pittman's mailer only went out to d households, or included the I's. I suspect the latter. So both candidates seemed to make an equal effort here.
Campaign appearances - Duane made 3 campaign appearances, plus his fundraising event. In each of these appearances, he talked with the voters afterwards, and got an overwhelmingly positive response. pittman made one appearance, didn't speak on the issues at all, and ducked out early to avoid all contact with the voters.
Signs - Duane didn't have any at all. pittman has perhaps a dozen of them up in public locations, none of them are in anyone's yard.
Ground game - pittman had none whatsoever. Duane knocked doors of probably somewhere around 90%+ of R and I registered households. The responses I personally got, both knocking doors and at campaign appearances, were overwhelmingly positive. Others reported the same results.
Gunny proved that a district like this is quite winnable. The only thing that Duane didn't have compared to his opponent was yard signs, and even then, her effort was minimal. The big question here is, will more campaign appearances of higher quality, plus the ground game, be enough to offset the approximately 5% gerrymandering of the district?
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William Tell
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I really hope he wins, our candidates put their hearts and souls into these races.
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Yes, we are all very proud of not only Duane's campaign, but KBT's and Mark Thomas' as well. We put an immense amount of effort out, and hopefully it will all finally pay off tonight when the votes are tallied. In the worst case scenario, if Duane loses, pittman will term out at the end of one 4 year term in the State Senate. This will leave the seat open again, and Duane will have the advantage of name recognition when he runs again, which he will do if he doesn't win today.
Here's front and back pictures of the mailer (the key is placed there to obscure the name and address):
Here's front and back pictures of the mailer (the key is placed there to obscure the name and address):
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Well, it was unfortunately a landslide loss for Duane:
http://newsok.com/politics/elections/state-results
Duane: 2913 votes - 17%
pittman: 14,245 votes - 83%
Something went very wrong here. At Duane's election watch party, we were dumbfounded at how amazingly low Republican turnout was, and how amazingly high democrat turnout was. These numbers indicate something like 25-30 percent Republican turnout, at best, and virtually 100% turnout for democrats! Now, I did find out tonight that pittman had run a radio ad over the last 3-4 days, but that still doesn't account for it. Perhaps it was a heavy turnout for democrats voting for Connie Johnson against wankford, since she was very popular in the district, but that still doesn't explain a virtually 100% turnout in a midterm. I went and voted an hour before the polls closed, then headed over to the watch party. Upon returning home, I encountered something very strange: a door hanger from pittman, which wasn't there when I left. It not only had a sticker on it that indicated my polling location, but it also had a phone number at the bottom to call for a ride to the polls!!! That's how she did it! She literally offered everyone a free ride!
I wonder if this goes against some sort of FEC regulation?
Anyways, it did feel really good to have a Liberty Candidate on my general election ballot:
http://newsok.com/politics/elections/state-results
Duane: 2913 votes - 17%
pittman: 14,245 votes - 83%
Something went very wrong here. At Duane's election watch party, we were dumbfounded at how amazingly low Republican turnout was, and how amazingly high democrat turnout was. These numbers indicate something like 25-30 percent Republican turnout, at best, and virtually 100% turnout for democrats! Now, I did find out tonight that pittman had run a radio ad over the last 3-4 days, but that still doesn't account for it. Perhaps it was a heavy turnout for democrats voting for Connie Johnson against wankford, since she was very popular in the district, but that still doesn't explain a virtually 100% turnout in a midterm. I went and voted an hour before the polls closed, then headed over to the watch party. Upon returning home, I encountered something very strange: a door hanger from pittman, which wasn't there when I left. It not only had a sticker on it that indicated my polling location, but it also had a phone number at the bottom to call for a ride to the polls!!! That's how she did it! She literally offered everyone a free ride!
I wonder if this goes against some sort of FEC regulation?Anyways, it did feel really good to have a Liberty Candidate on my general election ballot:
William Tell
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That's a shame, do you have any idea by how much Duane was outspent? Is the district that democrat leaning?
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No, I really don't. I imagine that those sort of numbers will eventually be on the FEC reports. But for now, all we can do is to look at what each candidate did (which I had detailed in previous posts), and what the likely cost was. Probably the biggest expense for pittman was hiring people to go out and deliver thousands and thousands of door hangers on election day, and then give thousands of voters a free ride (literally). She obviously spent thousands of dollars on that alone - how much would it cost to deliver something like 15,000 door hangers in a single day? Duane's campaign was run on an absolute shoestring budget with an all-volunteer staff, I don't think he even got as much as $1000 in donations - remember, he couldn't even afford to buy yard signs.
And no, the district isn't THAT democrat-leaning! That's what's so surprising about this election. The voter registration lists show it to be around 55% democrat-leaning. Republican turnout would seem to be about average for a midterm election, while democrat turnout was extremely high. The only two things that could possibly explain the extremely high democrat turnout would be pittman offering the voters a literal free ride, and Connie Johnson (who is extremely popular in the district) being on the ballot for the US Senate against wankford.
Duane isn't just going to go away. It's possible that he might run for State Rep in 2016. His House district only touches the edge of the Senate district, so there is very little overlap, and his House district is deep red. However, it would likely be a competitive primary, with 3-4 candidates running. The current State Rep in that district terms out in 2016, so it will be an open seat.
William Tell
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Its the job of the Oklahoma Ethics Commission to keep track of state funds raised, not the FEC as I understand it. This link should help, but a lot of the info is old:
http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/cand_list.html
[url]http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/search_reports_1.php?reg_id=114392&camefrom=position
http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/search_reports_1.php?reg_id=114449&camefrom=position
[/URL]
http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/cand_list.html
[url]http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/search_reports_1.php?reg_id=114392&camefrom=position
http://www.ok.gov/ethics/public/search_reports_1.php?reg_id=114449&camefrom=position
[/URL]
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