It's a risk by Huck's crew.
Huck's rise in the polls can be explained by one of two scenarios. (Aside from the fact that a college student like me who doesn't own a landline will never be polled and those who didn't vote in the primaries last time wouldn't be polled ect ect)
Anywho
Scenario A) Huck's conservative Christian values fueled his rise to the top. Once those polled in Iowa figured this out, the MSM reports on it and fuels a rise in poll numbers nationally.
Scenario B) Rudy does so poorly in person that the electorate in the primary states are dumping him and Huckabee just happened to be the next one in line. Kinda like when a #16 Sports Team suddenly finds itself in the Top 10 after a few teams ahead of it were upset by lesser opponents. It's not that that team has gotten any better, the teams ahead are just doing worse.
Reports from the front show that once people get to know Rudy, he doesn't do as well. Which isn't much of a surprise when he's running on 9/11 and the Firefighters are already targeting him swiftboat style. Then all the negative press on him probably put a few holes in the ship, so now Rudy is sinking.
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Now, If you believe that it's the conservative wing of the GOP that picks the President (and you credit scenario A with the rise in poll numbers), then you'd want to capitalize on that. And what better way to do it then by a fancy Christmas Card reminding voters who the evangelical candidate is?
But, there are GREAT risks to playing the God-Card.
You alienate any non-Christian. (Which would be a problem in the general election, but not the primary. They would be much more likely to vote for a Democrat anyway) The risk is further diluted by the fact that there's ALOT of time between the general election and the primary. It'll be almost a year later when we vote for President. So, the alienation of non-Christians is a risk, but there's good reason to believe it's not a 'big' risk.
Risk #2 is that early state voters would be turned off by crossing the 'line' so to speak when it comes to religion and politics. Early State voters are a bit more savvy than your average voter due to being swamped by politics every four years. This would have been enough for me to say 'no-go' on the ad, BUT if you remember...Scenario A thinks that the "Christian Leadership" line is why you're ahead now. So, it makes sense to full throttle it. I don't buy the idea that the bookshelf was accidentally shaped like a cross. NOTHING appears in an ad by mistake. And Huck is playing the God-Card with full effect. Why be shy about it if it's working??
Risk #3: It makes people nervous. We've seen examples of how previous Presidents have played this card and we grow instantly suspicious of those who use this card. Alot of these people may be independents or moderates. People who are 'in play' right now. If you think about it, Dr. Paul's response to the ad (which was a risk in itself) draws attention to this nervousness. People who may have been on board with Huck who are a bit quesy with this may take a step back. (After all, what happens if he tries this during the general election??) The voters which are turned off by the ad will have to look elsewhere? And whose left in the field that is making headlines right now? Dr. Ron Paul. I'd say it was a smart move by Dr. Paul. (If it was pre-planned, it may not have been...we'll never know for sure)
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I think Huck's rise in the polls is because of Scenario B... I think Rudy got too much bad press + not doing well in the grassroots area + not doing well in person has sunk his battleship. Thus, Huck moves up. If this is the case, then the Ad isn't going to work out well. Instead of expanding the tent to allow more support into the Tent, now Huck's turned people away. We'll see how the big the blow-back will be on this one.
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The Sinclair quote was risky, but it's a good call methinks. While it does turn-off evangelicals (to a point), that's not where Dr. Paul's base is. Plus, Paul becomes the hero of the moment to anyone alienated by the Ad. Hell, even the Huffington Post loves the comment. Getting a few headlines while opening up the tent is a good move. And the only reason why it's going to get any press whatsoever is it's out of the ordinary Fox News expected a different response. They had prepared for a different response. Thus, when Dr. Paul didn't tow the Christian Conservative Line (which is what they expected) they didn't have anything to talk about and had to cut the interview short. Fox and Friends is a commentary show, not a news show. If you deviate from the script they have to go to commercial to re-write it.
Just my 2 cents
