dollar index to 56?

[fatjohn]

 

[fatjohn]

This one I made myself with data from the trade weighted exchange index: major currency's. I did it because i did not found any log scale dollar index. Anyways this is not exactly the dollar index today the trade weighted exchange index stands at 73.4 so two points below the dollar index. Anyways I noticed that the first wave down was steeper then the second wave, so i assume that the third will be even less steep and that it's decline will match that of the 2nd wave with the same ratio the decline of the 2nd wave matched that of the first. Anyways with this figure you get a bulls eye in the low fifty's. In a time span of a half year. We'll see how it turns out.

 

[stag15]

I think we are going to go much lower than 50. It all depends on if other countries continue devaluing their currency to keep it from going up in value. You could have a scenario where every country devalues their currency so much that the dollar index stays flat, yet gold doubles or triples.

 

[smithtg]

once it breaks support at 70, the limits are endless

NOBODY can print money like the USA and find other countries dumb enough to buy our debt (at least for now)

 

[tmosley]

Technical analysis is pretty useless for historical events like this. This move is not one that is caused by the markets, but rather a result of the actions of one small group of men. With small groups, it becomes nearly impossible to predict behavior.

The dollar could very easily drop that much, maybe quite quickly, even overnight. It's tough to pinpoint at what date banks will lose faith, or when the Mexican standoff will end.

 

[raystone]

Yes, but not because of any technical analysis or graph charting. Rather, simply because of the economic fundamentals of the U.S. holding more unsecured debt than the GDPs of all the countries put together. The options for the U.S. are simply pay it off (not happening), raise taxes to 80% (not happening soon), or print money.

 

[jsu718]

Based on the historical data there is no way you can extend it that far into the future. It may very well go to 56 or less but you can't get that from that chart.

 

[fatjohn]

Based on the historical data there is no way you can extend it that far into the future. It may very well go to 56 or less but you can't get that from that chart.

Well i would like to point out that although it's a long line it only goes like 8 months top into the future. You should check out the elliot wave theorists or those that use seasons. They do technical analysis decades in the future. Second, I'm not saying that it's the only scenario for the dollar, I just saw a certain pattern and I thought, why not share it on RPF. :o

 

[devil21]

I voted maybe. I don't think it will happen in the short timeframe your graph suggests because they can bounce the dollar back up with an equities crash (which I think is what will happen after all of these ugly earnings reports are out) but yes, eventually the dollar will get to the 56 point and around then is when the process to remove the dollar as reserve currency is in full swing. Inflation inbound.

 

[EddieG]

I think it goes much lower than 56, but not necessarily in the next year. It could happen in 3 months, it could be 5 years...

 

[jon_perez]

It is definitely plausible. The only thing, in fact, that will prevent it is cooperation from other central banks. How easily the US (or the Fed) can jawbone these other CBs into supporting the dollar is a very complex geopolitical question, but definitely even for this artificial support there will be a price to pay one way or the other.

The primary concern that is to most players' interests will be stability, not necessarily a strong dollar. A dollar collapse would be disastrous but a slow steady decline would be to most everyone's interest (except to those earning in US dollars and who hold non inflation-linked USD assets).

Historically, the US has been able to exercise amazing creativity in jawboning other countries to support its currency one way or the other while still remaining the exclusive world reserve currency. Who knows, maybe they can pull off this coup once again??

For example, one very remote but still logical scenario is that, contrary to the fear of tinfoil hatters that the USD will be replaced by a NWO currency, the USD could become THE so-called "NWO currency", since there is so much of it in international hands anyway. The tinfoil hatters seem to forget their own cherished assumptions that the USD is already under the control of so-called foreign cabals (e.g. the Fed), so what would be the diff for these people?

I can imagine the financial whizzes concocting an arrangement that operationally turns the USD into such a currency while sounding politically feasible (it can still be called the USD for example). Frankly, the USD IS already partially operating as such a currency, because it is to everyone's interest (more or less) to prop it up, since the players that matter (Japan, China, Gulf States) hold so much of it. One thing the international players would demand is for congress to have even LESS control over the Fed, so that the Fed can raise interest rates and protect the value of the USD without fear of backlash from the American people even more of whom will lose jobs in such a case.

Heck, even most of the chicken little tinfoil hatter gold bugs on this forum might go for it, just make sure there is some implied tie to gold in this new currency arrangement. I'm sure it won't take much to easily convince someone like hugolp to fall for such an arrangement.

 

[denison]

I don't think China will america strong hold anyone in to keeping the dollar as reserve currencies, they're leading the path to replace it. Not to mention that this whole ponzi scheme is only held together because China buys US treasury debt. This will stop as soon as China rids itself of worth US bills. China, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf States already stated a plan to stop trading in dollars for oil. The destruction of the greenback is a done deal, it was sealed at the G20 summit. It couldn't come soon enough.

YouTube - Max Keiser: Dollar to be buried way before 2018

 

[denison]

bump