Do you think we will ever have another 1930's type Great Depression?

[MN Patriot]

Why do you think that "technological advancement" will ensure that there are always enough basic commodities available? Or if they are available, what makes you think that they will always be affordable to the average American?

Technology is what we use to create commodities. Our technology has gotten more productive and efficient.

Cotton and food have to be grown, fertilized, harvested and transported -- each step currently requires oil. What if oil prices went up by another factor of 5? That's something that could easily happen, given the decline in the dollar and increasing demand from Asia.

Easy answer: they won't. The USA and Canada has enormous energy resources in the form of coal, tar sands and oil shale. In a few years we will start harvesting those, if we have the political will to overcome the environmentalists.

Today, the nation's infrastructure is in a declining state of disrepair. Transportation is available, but costs will continue to increase with the price of oil. It seems possible to me that in the near future, air travel might only be affordable by the very rich. Don't forget that the production of cars and planes is intensely energy intensive, so prices for those "basics" will continue to increase too.

One bridge collapses and everyone panics. Yeah, we need to keep fixing stuff as it gets older. Cars and planes aren't really basics. Manufacturers have come out with cars that cost only a couple of thousand dollars. Really basic cars, but they get people from point A to point B for really cheap. We've been spoiled, and as new technology comes around, our new cheaper cars will continue to spoil us. That is how the market works. Trust the market.

What would happen if people couldn't afford to keep their phones? What if radios and TVs were no longer affordable?

They can make radios and TV's so cheap, they will be like paper plates someday. Use 'em and throw 'em away.

Bernanke studied the causes of the Depression at great length. He believes that it could have been prevented if the Fed had acted more aggressively, based on his Keynesian view of the world. According to the Austrian view, he's dead wrong. Amazingly, it looks like he'll get the chance to try out his theories (makes one wonder why he was picked to be chairman, doesn't it?).

Look, the basic situation is that wealth is a result of production. America has moved most of its production overseas, and its wealth has followed. It has devolved into a service and consumer based economy. Wealth is not being produced, it's being spent. To make matters worse, Americans are borrowing to fund their spending. Plus, the government is now socialist and imperialist, with huge spending on social programs and in attempts to maintain the US overseas empire. I couldn't imagine a more precarious scenario if I tried!

Some people claim the Depression was deliberate, to consolodate the power of the federal government. FDR did that quite well, with all his programs and the Social Security pyramid scheme that is slowly consuming us also.

Yes, I agree we are in a precarious situation. Yes, production has moved overseas, but thanks to advanced technology we could restore it quickly. It isn't like we could never start producing stuff here again.

Kind of like the big worry people have always had about foreigners buying our assets: "The Japanese own the Empire State Building! Oh No!"
My reply: "So what, do you think they are going to move it back to Japan?"

 

[bucfish]

This time it will be even worse as hyperinflation is soon to take root. The Banks and The Federal Reserve have been stuck into an inevitable cylce. This will soon be evident. The have some time but the wheels in motion are irreversible unless another industry develops such as the information age.

 

[davver]

Easy answer: they won't. The USA and Canada has enormous energy resources in the form of coal, tar sands and oil shale. In a few years we will start harvesting those, if we have the political will to overcome the environmentalists.

My friend actually worked on this. It is a lot more then environmentalism. Those oil sands aren't cheap to refine. They are nowhere near profitable at current levels.

Our entire economy is built around oil. When it goes you will need major re-adjustments.

One bridge collapses and everyone panics. Yeah, we need to keep fixing stuff as it gets older. Cars and planes aren't really basics. Manufacturers have come out with cars that cost only a couple of thousand dollars. Really basic cars, but they get people from point A to point B for really cheap. We've been spoiled, and as new technology comes around, our new cheaper cars will continue to spoil us. That is how the market works. Trust the market.

The Civil Engineers of America gave US infrastructure from ports to roads to the power grid a D-. This is not one bridge (or one city underwater).

Some people claim the Depression was deliberate, to consolodate the power of the federal government. FDR did that quite well, with all his programs and the Social Security pyramid scheme that is slowly consuming us also.

Yes, I agree we are in a precarious situation. Yes, production has moved overseas, but thanks to advanced technology we could restore it quickly. It isn't like we could never start producing stuff here again.

Kind of like the big worry people have always had about foreigners buying our assets: "The Japanese own the Empire State Building! Oh No!"
My reply: "So what, do you think they are going to move it back to Japan?"

Profits from business in the US go to American shareholders. They tend to live in the US and spend in the US. Future profits will go to overseas shareholders who will spend it in their own countries where they live.

Will it be exactly like the Great Depression, probably not. However, to think there won't be major economic sacrifices, upheaval, inflation, unemployment, etc. is absurd.

 

[Dave Pedersen]

I said no because during the great depression we still had a functioning economy. This time around I don't think we will even have that. There will be too much armed revolt to sustain any economy. This will shut down the power grid and without electric power we will be suspended in the pre-lightbulb era.. say about 1866 just after the civil war. Or look at Iraq in 2007 to get an idea of what we will be experiencing.

Will Blackwater prevail against the United States military? I don't think so. Initially the military will do what they are told but I have faith in the military to turn their weapons against the traitors and fight by the sides of many patriots. Once they see what Blackwater and the feds are really up to I can't imagine it will be a fair fight for long.

I believe before we can regain our equilibrium Russia will attempt to seize the vast oil fields of Alaska.. but there is a grand surprise waiting for them. Our Father will defeat them Himself for we are His people.

 

[AceNZ]

Technology is what we use to create commodities. Our technology has gotten more productive and efficient.

Technology without wealth is worthless. And on the commodity side, technology without oil -- for the foreseeable future -- is also worthless.

Did you know that the US has no reserve food supplies? That all wheat flows to market on just a single railroad line? That wheat is processed and delivered to market in just a day or so (so there's almost nothing in the pipeline). That the US hasn't had a severe drought in many years, where having one every 6 or 8 yrs used to be common?

Easy answer: they won't. The USA and Canada has enormous energy resources in the form of coal, tar sands and oil shale. In a few years we will start harvesting those, if we have the political will to overcome the environmentalists.

Environmentalists have very little to do with it. Oil shale and tar sands may never be competitive. It currently takes almost as much energy to produce the oil as the oil contains. Oil has increased in price by 8 times since 1998, from $12/barrel back then.... Oil shortages have already started in China. Yet somehow the US will be immune if things continue on their current path?

One bridge collapses and everyone panics.

A single bridge collapse has nothing to do with it. I'm talking about the condition of the entire transportation infrastructure. Things wear out. It requires a certain level of investment to maintain the infrastructure, which hasn't been made for many years in certain areas...

They can make radios and TV's so cheap, they will be like paper plates someday. Use 'em and throw 'em away.

Ah, a true American. Disposable everything, including TVs.

But who will be making the TVs? None are made in the US any more. And they have to be transported by ship then truck, which takes oil.

Yes, production has moved overseas, but thanks to advanced technology we could restore it quickly. It isn't like we could never start producing stuff here again.

Production in the US isn't going to be restored anytime soon. It takes decades to create the kind of manufacturing infrastructure that has been created in China, and to do so requires an immense amount of wealth, which we don't have any more.

I'm not saying we could never start producing things again. But to do so will probably require immense foreign investment.

Kind of like the big worry people have always had about foreigners buying our assets: "The Japanese own the Empire State Building! Oh No!"
My reply: "So what, do you think they are going to move it back to Japan?"

It's not the location of the building that's important -- it's what happens to the earnings that flow from it. With foreign ownership, the earnings (wealth) move out of the US economy and into the foreign economy. We, as a country, get poorer as a result.


Sadly, most Americans think like you do -- and that's a big part of the reason why we're in such deep shit.

 

[raiha]

Originally Posted by MN Patriot
They can make radios and TV's so cheap, they will be like paper plates someday. Use 'em and throw 'em away.

Ah, a true American. Disposable everything, including TVs.

 

[Michigan11]

Housing prices over all will drop 30% in the next couple years. How will that effect our society is the question?

 

[tod evans]

They can make radios and TV's so cheap, they will be like paper plates someday. Use 'em and throw 'em away.
"

herin lies the core of the issue.......who are "they"?

it`s not just electronics, it`s hammers, wrenches, bandaids-n-hootch, cars and even saddles-n-bridles.

a large portion of our farmlands are owned by "them" .....do a little research on what`s left of the grain belt.

if your job involves shuffling paper whether literally or figuritively your livelyhood could very well be at risk.

the world trades in real, tangable items.......it always has......food, gold, guns, clothes, shelter.

there`s nothing in todays day in age any different.....technology can`t feed your kids! or put a roof over your head......but it does allow folks in other parts of the world to covet your roof, food and clothes.

here`s the eye opener..........other folks in the world are willing to produce tangable goods so that they can have a roof, food and clothes.

tod

 

[MN Patriot]

There are getting to be too many posts to reply to, so I will just make some general comments.

I think the people who have the survivalist mentality are easily manipulated. If the media, be it mainstream or alternative, comes out with some doomsday story, the survivalists lap it up because it conforms to their mindset that society is crumbling. Of course tragedy sells news. And many people have a deep set insecurity about the future.

My paper plate / TV comment was trying to make the point that technology is able to make things cheaper and better as time goes by. We can do more with less. Yes, we live in a throw-away consumerist society. The message from the media is to always spend spend spend. Things can be made so cheaply, people now own 100 times the clothes than people did 100 or 200 years ago. That is a different issue than depression. Almost opposite.

People here seem to have the impression that everyone else will either panic and run down the streets hysterically or just curl up into a ball in the corner. The economy will crash and nobody wil have any idea of how to take care of themselves. I don't see that happening. People are smart enough to take care of themselves, humans are able to quickly adapt. Yeah, they make lots of mistakes and do stupid things. They are easily manipulated follow a bunch of charlatans. But one way or another they get by.

Some of you don't understand what technology is. Yes, it can feed us, it is used to build more efficient buildings. We use technology to produce the necessities that we need to live. The market is what harnesses technology. Trust the market. But don't trust the government and the people in big business that are closely aligned with government.

If foreigners buy up our assets, it is because we are a thriving economy with money to be made in it. When they stop buying our assets is when we should worry. How many people buy investments in Haiti for example?

The future will always be a challenge. It can be frightening to consider the possible scenarios. But I remain optimistic that people will avoid tragedy, or if it happens they will learn from it. Especially now with our communication abilities to bypass the establisment media, we can learn for ourselves what the real facts are. Some talking head on TV might tell us something, but there are enough alternative sources to counter their claims.

That is why we are a part of the Ron Paul revolution, right? To get people to wake up and reform our government and monetary system.

 

[Truth Warrior]

http://www.mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf
http://www.mises.org/rothbard/rothmoney.pdf
http://www.mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae2_3_1.pdf

 

[tod evans]

Some of you don't understand what technology is. Yes, it can feed us, it is used to build more efficient buildings. We use technology to produce the necessities that we need to live. The market is what harnesses technology. Trust the market. But don't trust the government and the people in big business that are closely aligned with government.

.

please help me understand how any form of technology can replace manufacturing tangible items?
i`m not a survivalist or anarchist just some ol` hick who firmly believes that selling "ideas" will only carry us as a country so far.
we are giving up our land and factories because as a nation we`ve become to lazy to take care of ourselves,
we can have more "stuff" by letting someone else make it for us at the expense of becoming a nation of snakeoil salesmen.
technology doesn`t build buildings or farm the land, it doesn`t make clothing for our families nor is it a substitute for local interaction with our neighbors.
this "techno" era is both good and bad for us as a nation......good in that it facilitates the transfer of information and lessens the labor required to produce "stuff", bad in that it promotes laziness and apathy in the workforce, when we place a premium on "data" an intangible item how is that any different than today's dollar in relation to gold?

 

[Malakai0]

When debt + interest + obligations > total GDP in a few decades, I think we have a real problem that isn't going anywhere.

 

[Leadman584]

I vote yes, not for economic collapse, but worse.

If you sufficiently debase the currency, we the suffering will demand a fix.

Now that the Canadian Dollar is fairly close to a 1:1 exchange with the American Dollar, watch more carefully the performance of the Mexican Peso. I remember going to Mexico some years ago and getting a 200+:1 exchange rate vs. the Dollar. It is less than 10:1 now.

The competing currency will not be Gold/Silver backed, but the Amero.

How low will we go?
Watch the Peso.

Gotta give the Dr. some more money, while it's still worth something.

 

[Ron Galt]

There are still services offered here that no other country can provide.

um... like what?

 

[ForLibertyFight]

How come stocks are going up?

 

[AceNZ]

How come stocks are going up?

Do you mean over the last few days? That's happening because the Fed lowered the Fed Funds target rate and the Discount rate, thereby injecting a lot more money into the economy through inflation. The market is also expecting another rate cut later this week.

Last October, the Dow was over 14000. It recently hit around 12000, for a drop of 15% in a little over 3 months. Measured in gold, the Dow is down more like 35% over the same period.

 

[Fox McCloud]

Do you mean over the last few days? That's happening because the Fed lowered the Fed Funds target rate and the Discount rate, thereby injecting a lot more money into the economy through inflation. The market is also expecting another rate cut later this week.

Last October, the Dow was over 14000. It recently hit around 12000, for a drop of 15% in a little over 3 months. Measured in gold, the Dow is down more like 35% over the same period.

another thing to keep in mind is that not all stock investments are necessarily are own; the foreigners have often seized the opportunity to dump our dollar by investing in hard assets/companies/toll roads/etc.

 

[Mini-Me]

<snip>

Some of you don't understand what technology is. Yes, it can feed us, it is used to build more efficient buildings. We use technology to produce the necessities that we need to live. The market is what harnesses technology. Trust the market. But don't trust the government and the people in big business that are closely aligned with government.
<snip>

Here's the problem...you say "trust the market," but as someone pointed out near the beginning of the thread, we're headed toward a police state. A dollar crash could be used as an excuse for martial law, confiscation and rationing of food, etc., and if that happens, I'm not entirely sure we'll even have a free market to trust in.

 

[ForLibertyFight]

So when can we expect the stocks to plummet again?