Do you believe Ron Paul can win the election without winning NH?

[Badger Paul]

It really comes down to five small states in January: Wyoming, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa. Win these and the momentum gained will vault RP towards the nomination.

New Hampshire's the key given that independent can vote in its primary, the libertarian culture of the state and FSP activists. If RP's message can't sell here it won't sell anywhere else.

 

[dt_]

^ You said Iowa twice

 

[tiznow]

y romney floundering in NH, rudy now tied with him, and alot of people aren't dead set in their ways......if he can't win NH a very libertarian state to begin with the writing is on the wall IMO.

 

[Thom1776]

I Answered No

New Hampshire is "Do or Die" PERIOD!

McCain now LIVES in New Hampshire, because he needs it just as badly. Romney is fighting hard there, because HE needs it just as badly.

Giuliani and Thompson don't need to win there because they have the national name recognition that will carry them in other states.

Ron Paul needs to reach a statewide poll threshold of 10% in NH by the end of this year. If he can do that, then I feel comfortable that he will win the primary with the votes he will get from all the non-republicans who vote in the primary.

So this is how it breaks down:

Paul, Romney and McCain are fighting hardest for New Hampshire. One of them will win, in fact, they should finish 1-2-3. Giuliani and Thompson are not going to waste there time and money there, so will end up in the 4th and 5th spots.

Here is my optimistic prediction:

Paul----------27%
Romney-----23%
McCain------20%
Giuliani------14%
Thompson--10%
Huckabee----4%
Other---------2%

If Paul does not win New Hampshire, we should immediately switch to plan B.

 

[Question_Authority]

Ron Paul needs to move to NH for the next 3 months. Literally. And make quick trips to Iowa and S. Carolina. His campaign has virtually ignored NH, except when there is a debate happening here. It is a source of frustration for many of us NH people.

 

[wgadget]

I WANT New Hampshire!

 

[Harpakhrad11]

Yes, but it would seem unlikely.

 

[MadEmperor]

When is this straw pull? Also, do we have any pliminary poll results?

I remember when Iowa happened many knew that he was only going to get about 6th, yet many thought he'd get #1 just because.

What do those same people think he will get in NH? I hope he has a real chance at NH =D

Go Ron Paul +D

 

[daviddee]

...

 

[Grandson of Liberty]

While I don't think he needs to win it, he needs to do well enough for the rest of the country to take notice. That's why I think top three is huge for him, especially if it's close percentage-wise. Hopefully he'll have a big enough warchest left to start hammering all the people who finally start asking "Who's this Ron Paul guy?" If he does well enough that he's not ignored, and we do our jobs as grassroots volunteers, supporters and voters, he just may pull this thing off.

 

[Jared Callanan]

We can win without New Hampshire but we do need a top three finish and good finishes in other states such as Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and or Maine.

 

[Nash]

Buchanan rocketed up 15% in the polls the day after his NH win. That's why I think it's imperative that Ron Paul wins that state. If he cannot win in a state with an open primary and libertarian leanings then all the people who say "he can't win so I can't vote for him" will likely be right and they won't bother.

If he does win New Hampshire he gets a huge poll bounce and every saying "he can't win so I can't vote for him" will immediately reconsider.

It's really that simple. New Hampshire is the most likely primary for him to win and by doing that he increases his chances in every primary that follow it.

 

[paulitics]

bump

 

[Drknows]

I think florida, ohio and iowa is where we need support.

 

[RevolutionSD]

He needs to win NH or finish strongly in 2nd.

RP even said this himself when he was in L.A. Not those exact words but he basically said if we don't take NH, it becomes VERY difficult to win.

 

[libertythor]

Buchanan was leading....then suddenly Steve Forbes spent a ton of money in Arizona, a winner-take-all state, and pulled ahead of Buchanan in delegates.

The MSM immediately jumped on that as supposed evidence that Pat Buchanan suddently didn't have a chance.

1 or 2 primaries later.....the media hardly covered the primaries even though the vast majority of delegates were at stake.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Ron Paul needs to move to NH for the next 3 months. Literally. And make quick trips to Iowa and S. Carolina. His campaign has virtually ignored NH, except when there is a debate happening here. It is a source of frustration for many of us NH people.

I honestly don't understand the campaign's rationale for not spending more time in New Hampshire either. But, I'm sure they have a reason. I do hope that he starts spending much more time there beyond the upcoming walk this weekend.

They've got several campaign staff there, right? I'm assuming that there is a big effort between they and the grassroots to get the word out on the ground.