Do we get a suprise ron paul surge in the s.c. primaries tomorrow?

[rb3b3]

After the events that took place this week, specifically the last 2 days (newts ex wife, mitts cayman islands, MOST IMPRTANTLY last nights debate) do you feel we will have a major suprise in south carolinas primaries tomorrow? i am hoping that south carolina is catching on to ron in a big way, especially when last nights audience demanded that the moderator get rons views on abortion. I am really hoping for a big time suprise tomorrow!!! what do you all think?? i feel ron gets 24% of the vote... whats your guess? im very interested to hear? Also many of the latest polls that have ron around 14% many of them are conducted on landline phones lol who uses landlines nowadays anyway(more speculation)?

 

[trey4sports]

nope

 

[rb3b3]

nope

nope?? come onnn this was meant to be a positive thread. what pct do you see ron getting?

 

[cajuncocoa]

only if the election is fair.

 

[D.A.S.]

If we're lucky, we might get a couple points above the current polls, but we must learn the lesson already that the polls have generally been spot-on. Our only hope is Dems and college kids turning out en masse to vote for Paul, otherwise I expect a solid 15-17% for Paul in SC, and HOPEFULLY he will be a strong 3rd and finishes ahead of Santorum.

 

[Dsylexic]

19% will keep be from not being disappointed

 

[ohgodno]

Not likely due to media blackout - the media help make up the undecided's minds. Expect them to split between Grinch and Romney.

We'll see ~34 Grinch 28 Mittens 16-18 Paul with Froth taking up the rear… polls will likely be accurate.

There's not enough time for the new Grinch stories or the Romney tax returns thingy to saturate the media before tomorrow for there to be any impact. SC and FL are like Romney's NH for Grinch … discount his #'s like we discounted Romney's in NH - The battle for delegates is what …

The hope is Dr. Paul wins at least one congressional district - if he picks up any delegates here consider it a win and keep fighting.

 

[pacu44]

It is not a surge unless the MSM says it is....

 

[trey4sports]

nope?? come onnn this was meant to be a positive thread. what pct do you see ron getting?

it's not meant to be negative, but he will get (%) about what he is polling at. Don't get your hopes up for something that isn't going to happen. all the hype about landlines vs. cell phones and crosstabs has proven rather irrelevant and he usually gets about what he is polling at.

 

[EBounding]

I just hope he's significantly above Santorum and that 2nd and 1st place are close like in Iowa. Because 4th place is now last place.

 

[swissaustrian]

Do we get any new polls today?

 

[ZENemy]

If santorum says he likes american Idol he surges up from 0% to 1st or second place.

Ron Paul votes against SOPA, the NDAA, blows up every debate, does well in nearly all interviews and has very few REAL negative attacks and we go NOWHERE!

GREAT!

 

[specsaregood]

Also many of the latest polls that have ron around 14% many of them are conducted on landline phones lol who uses landlines nowadays anyway(more speculation)?

All the real pollsters nowadays use random number dialers that hit cell phones and/or have databases that include cell numbers. The landline thing doesn't matter.

The only real thing that could change the polling % is the turnout of independents and dems.

 

[swissaustrian]

I just hope he's significantly above Santorum and that 2nd and 1st place are close like in Iowa. Because 4th place is now last place.

Yep. Ideally Newt 1st, Mitt close 2nd, Ron strong 3rd with ideally more than 20%, and Santorum barely in double digits.

 

[doronster195]

Those of you saying the polls have been spot-on are being a bit misleading. Yes in the past the polls have been spot-on... however, did you see the NH results? Paul pulled 5% higher than his RCP average!

This election has been entirely unpredictable...

 

[ohgodno]

The % only matters for the WINNER of the state.

After that it's about consolidating support within congressional districts. A candidate will only get delegates if they win a congressional district—unless they're the overall winner!!!

Dr. Paul could come in last %-wise but get delegates if he wins a congressional district or districts.

 

[samsung1]

If the people. That like military veteran candidates show up that might help us get to 20% in SC

 

[doctorfunk]

You're only going to be disappointed if you expect a miracle. A solid 3rd place with 15-20% is within reach, but more than that is likely not going to happen. Most people aren't really that interested in politics. The average American still listens to the MSM and wants simple talking points.

 

[enrique]

The % only matters for the WINNER of the state.

After that it's about consolidating support within congressional districts. A candidate will only get delegates if they win a congressional district—unless they're the overall winner!!!

Dr. Paul could come in last %-wise but get delegates if he wins a congressional district or districts.

That would be mathematically very unlikely it means you'd have to Probably finish with almost no votes in some congressional districts.

 

[tbone717]

This contest is all about getting rid of Santorum. It's time for him to go home, and if he finishes a distant enough fourth, he will.