DMR Poll is AWESOME News.
- Thread starter hueylong
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Qdog
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You are correct, but that psychological factor that you speak of cannot be underestimated. I think we need a win to get psychological and media momentum going into NH... that 1% that will separate 1st and 2nd is a HUGE factor in what spin the media will be able to throw on us.... even though it makes prettty much no difference as far as delegates go.
One more thing. I think we will either win or lose by 1%, or blow this thing totally out of the water. Its very difficult to predict just how good turnout will be, and how many dems will come over.
eleganz
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Peace&Freedom
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The release of this half poll indicates DMR did not have integrity to wait to release results based on a full sample, and is putting its thumb on the scale. We can still win this thing (margin of error, independent turnout etc), but the pundits will exploit the results for the next 72 hours to give them the excuse to push Romney non-stop, using it as their figleaf of legitimacy. On CNN and FOX today, it was non-stop Mitt pushing even before the poll was released, with the narrative being "once Mitt wins both IA and NH, he's almost a shoe-in to win SC," the-race-is-over drumbeat. We have no leverage to reverse their cover for saying this, unless Paul wins IA. The situation is grave, let us deal with it honestly, and strive to get Paul to win.
Carole
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Actually, he says he has a thousand captains in place for the caucuses. 
Not sure if he has soldiers. Maybe just captains.
Seriously though, he has lived there for a year and says he has ground game. He must know a lot of people then in Iowa.
Not sure if he has soldiers. Maybe just captains.Seriously though, he has lived there for a year and says he has ground game. He must know a lot of people then in Iowa.
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Agree with several posters that Frothy surge is very unpalitable but not necessary a problem for us. May well be a bigger issue for Mitt if Frothy finishes strong. If Rick S. is destined to beat us, it would also be good for him to take out Mitt. Then we're back to 2008 with a Huck scenario. Who plays McCain at this point? Might it be Paul or Huntsman if Mitt is derailed in Iowa. Or does the Grinch make a comeback in the south?
Plus points - the media finally gets off our ass focusing on Frothy/Mitt battle. We know Frothy will get it where he doesn't like it in NH (excuse the pun). This leaves an opening for someone if Mitt can be derailed a second time in NH or barely survives with a dimishing win. It may take a Hail Mary but at least we're in the game (for the moment).
Plus points - the media finally gets off our ass focusing on Frothy/Mitt battle. We know Frothy will get it where he doesn't like it in NH (excuse the pun). This leaves an opening for someone if Mitt can be derailed a second time in NH or barely survives with a dimishing win. It may take a Hail Mary but at least we're in the game (for the moment).
P&F -- they DID release the whole poll. The analysis in the DMR was from the paper, not the pollster, who would have likely cautioned against the risks of analyzing half the poll for trends -- that half poll has a MOE of 5.6+/-... Meaning, Santorum could be anywhere from 26 to 16, Dr. Paul anywhere from 23 to 13 -- so, not all that meaningful.
i had made a stupid & basic Three Stooges reference in another thread.
you can't simply look at MOE, you must also look at LARRY and CURLY.
now i feel my other posting is coming back to haunt me. Larry + Curly
may have opted for mister rick santorum on the poll's last two days.
you can't simply look at MOE, you must also look at LARRY and CURLY.
now i feel my other posting is coming back to haunt me. Larry + Curly
may have opted for mister rick santorum on the poll's last two days.
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Carole
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Who would have thought, 4 years ago, that Paul would be in a statistical tie with Romney, and that if the Paul people TURN UP... they could win this thing? 
The other great thing about these polls is they should MOTIVATE every Paul supporter in Iowa to drag themselves and their friends, family and anyone else they can to get out for Paul.
The other great thing about these polls is they should MOTIVATE every Paul supporter in Iowa to drag themselves and their friends, family and anyone else they can to get out for Paul.
Joey Wahoo
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Your point one is excellent. There is no need for RP to attack Santorum. EVERY OTHER NONROMNEY WILL BE DOING THAT NONSTOP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. They're all jockeying to be the nonRomney, nonPaul candidate. There will be lots of ammo fired at RS. We just need to hope Perry is successful in dragging Santorum down while we shore up our own. I'd be astonished if any Ron Paul supporters are jumping ship. This is all just a reshuffling of the socialcon/neocon vote. Perry has tons of money to spend and can't afford to lose to Santorum. Let them chew each other up and draw fire away from RP.
I'm in the grassroots office everyday.
In come the democrats and independents asking how to caucus.
This isn't about Mitt, it is about Obama.
Buyers remorse, BIG TIME.
If they bother to come find our office, and take our notes on how to caucus ( MANY for the first time) then I'm pretty sure they will show up Tuesday.
Just yesterday I spoke to someone about being a delegate, to go to the county convention and vote again in March.
"You mean vote again for Ron Paul?" She slowly let out her breath.
"I would be honored to cast my vote for Ron Paul"
I agree with the title of this post.
DMR Poll is AWESOME News.
;>)
In come the democrats and independents asking how to caucus.
This isn't about Mitt, it is about Obama.
Buyers remorse, BIG TIME.
If they bother to come find our office, and take our notes on how to caucus ( MANY for the first time) then I'm pretty sure they will show up Tuesday.
Just yesterday I spoke to someone about being a delegate, to go to the county convention and vote again in March.
"You mean vote again for Ron Paul?" She slowly let out her breath.
"I would be honored to cast my vote for Ron Paul"
I agree with the title of this post.
DMR Poll is AWESOME News.
;>)
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I just don't understand why Paul took the weekend off. Sure he'll be on tv tomorrow, but he needs to be on the ground in Iowa firing up the base. At this point we gotta out work these puckers! Independents, bluedogs unite! Surr hope the young people turn out in higher numbers than what the model of these pollsters are showing!
Barring voter fraud he will get it, don't worry, just keep on telling people about Ron Paul.
76 year old man in the fight of his life 7 days a week...
Come on, your average american bitches if they don't get 2 days off from their difficult cube job which consists of surfing the net all day.
mitt romney knows how to pitch an appeal to bay state Democrats. he tended to pick the suburbs ringing boston.
if quite a few of the Democrats are starting to sneak over to where the real activity is, cool! they may do a party
line vote come november of 2012 but are willing to hunour doctor ron paul on many of the issues? coooooooooool!
keep a focus on staying on message and don't worry. the Ds + Is are about to arrive in a big way. expect it thusly.
if quite a few of the Democrats are starting to sneak over to where the real activity is, cool! they may do a party
line vote come november of 2012 but are willing to hunour doctor ron paul on many of the issues? coooooooooool!
keep a focus on staying on message and don't worry. the Ds + Is are about to arrive in a big way. expect it thusly.
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