DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

[brandon]

Why go to the hassle of digging the holes. They just fake the jobs numbers.

100% unemployment over a long enough period drops everyone off the actively seeking list and magically you have 100% employment.

You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.

It's an example.

Does someone raising kids, cleaning the house, and doing laundry have a job? How about someone who grows food and hunts on their own land? How about someone who volunteers at the SPCA?

 

[Danke]

You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.

Whoosh

 

[Zippyjuan]

According to Zippy, the only indicator of the economy is jobs. We could all be digging holes and filling them in and the economy would be great according to the Zipster.

Personally I don't think there's any one measurement. I look at the trade deficit, the budget deficit, GDP, stocks, wages, and also jobs and other things. Pretty much everything is down except for jobs, which is a lagging indicator.

Trade deficit is not necessarily a good economic indicator. If you are a wealthy country you may demand more goods from your trading partners than they demand from you. Neither is a budget deficit. We have run a budget deficit for most of the last 70 years. Does that mean that we have had a bad economy for the last 70 years?

What about GDP? (we have already looked at jobs) GDP will tend to rise with population so lets look at per capita GDP.

Last Few years:

Longer Term (real GDP means GDP adjusted for the effects of price inflation so it cannot be blamed on rising prices of things):

 

[Zippyjuan]

DOW up triple digits. Oil price stabilizing. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/21/us-markets.html

 

[presence]

[h=1]Investors beware: These corporate bonds are a risk[/h][h=2]About $99 billion of high yield energy bonds are trading at distressed prices. And experts say they’re now worth about 40 percent to 50 percent less than that.[/h] Bryan Borzykowski, special to CNBC.com
Wednesday, 20 Jan 2016 | 9:37 AM ETCNBC.com



As energy prices fall below $28 a barrel, investors are understandably nervous about their oil- and gas-related stocks. However, people should be paying closer attention to another part of the energy market: corporate bonds.

Getty Images

According to Morningstar, 75 percent of all fixed-income funds have some energy exposure. The amount allocated to energy depends on the fund, of course, with the Columbia Limited Duration Credit (ALDAX) fund having the most exposure, with 28.7 percent, and the Prudential Government Income fund (PGVAX) with the least, at 0.5 percent.
When oil was at $120 a barrel, managers were happy to hold energy bonds — they were seemingly safe and paid attractive yields. Now many energy companies have been downgraded and bonds have defaulted.


Here’s who is gaining from record low oil prices


In 2015, 29 energy companies defaulted to account for 26 percent of all corporate defaults. The credit-rating agency expects about 6 percent of all U.S. energy corporates to default in 2016.
Those holding these corporate bonds — and there are likely many Americans who hold at least some energy fixed income — will have already seen the value of their investments fall. Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index has dropped by 11.6 percent. It's already down 1.84 percent year-to-date, and more defaults mean it will likely fall further.


<p>Wilbur Ross: Energy bonds &#039;blasted to smithereens&#039;</p> <p>Wilbur Ross, WL Ross &amp; Co. chairman &amp; CEO, discusses where he is seeing investment opportunities in the energy sector, including marine transport.</p>

"Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index has dropped by 11.6 percent. It's already down 1.84 percent year-to-date, and more defaults mean it will likely fall further."​

At the moment, about $99 billion of high-yield energy bonds are trading at distressed prices, according to Bloomberg. That's the face-value price of those bonds, but Christine Tan, a fund manager at Toronto-based Excel Funds, said they're now worth about 40 percent to 50 percent less than that.
As well, yields have climbed to about 17 percent, which indicates that the market thinks there will be more problems ahead.









"Bonds have fallen so much, and clearly there will be defaults to come,"

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/investors-beware-these-corporate-bonds-are-a-risk.html

 

[Zippyjuan]

Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?

What are your plans for dealing with the situation?

 

[presence]

Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?

What are your plans for dealing with the situation?

I keep 6 months of rice and beans and plenty of bullets always, don't you?

 

[presence]

 

[Zippyjuan]

I keep 6 months of rice and beans and plenty of bullets always, don't you?

Ah- gas and guns!

 

[presence]

 

[Zippyjuan]

Different take on same report: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-touch-six-month-high-last-week-1453383145

U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Up, But Remain Near Historic Lows

Data suggests a slightly increased number of layoffs, but still at levels indicating steady job growth

WASHINGTON—The number of U.S. workers filing applications for jobless benefits has edged up early this year, suggesting a slightly increased number of layoffs even though the overall level remains consistent with steady job creation.

Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000 in the week ended Jan. 16, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the highest level since early July.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 277,000 new applications for jobless benefits last week.

Initial claims increased three of the last four weeks, but that includes the typically volatile holiday period. And even still the level is very low by historical standards.

The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out often volatile weekly data, increased by 6,500 to 285,000. That was the highest reading since last April.

“The recent uptick in jobless claims is a negative at the margins,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “But even at this modestly elevated level, claims remain in a range that is still consistent with moderate growth.”

Claims for the week ended Jan. 9 were revised down by 1,000 to 283,000 from an initially reported 284,000.

Jobless claims mostly trended down since the recession ended in 2009 until the week ended July 18, when initial applications touched a four-decade low. Claims have mostly hovered slightly above that level since.

your article noted:

Some or all of the increase in claims could stem from the end of the holiday season, when many companies hire and then let go temporary workers. Claims are usually quite volatile from Thanksgiving until the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-jump-again-to-7-month-high-2016-01-21

As for where we have been:

 

[RonPaulIsGreat]

I don't see how the economy can be healthy with commodity prices so low across the board. China blowing up will drag the world down with it. It's not like we have isolated economies anymore.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Energy Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Crude oil
CL1
30.48 0.71 2.38 % 2.4 % -19.7 % -34.4 % 23:33
Brent crude oil
CO1
30.23 0.97 3.32 % 3.5 % -19.8 % -36.7 % 23:33
Natural gas
NG1
2.1420 0.022 -1.02 % 0.6 % 1.7 % -26.9 % 23:33
Gasoline
XB1
1.0775 0.0161 1.52 % -0.8 % -9.8 % -20.0 % 23:33
Heating oil
HO1
0.9349 0.0135 1.47 % -2.7 % -21.5 % -43.3 % 23:33
Ethanol
DL1
1.37 0.00 0.00 % 1.0 % -1.7 % -4.0 % Jan/22
Metals Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Gold
XAUUSD
1,099.69 1.20 -0.11 % 1.0 % 2.7 % -15.6 % Jan/22
Silver
XAGUSD
14.09 0.01 0.07 % 1.2 % -1.6 % -22.1 % Jan/22
Platinum
XPTUSD
821.90 4.52 0.55 % -0.9 % -5.5 % -35.7 % Jan/22
Palladium
XPDUSD
503.75 3.80 0.76 % 2.5 % -9.0 % -34.2 % Jan/22
Agricultural Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Cotton
CT1
62.35 0.26 0.42 % 1.5 % -0.7 % 8.9 % Jan/22
Corn
C 1
367.25 1.00 0.27 % 1.1 % 3.3 % 0.5 % Jan/22
Soybeans
S 1
880.50 1.75 0.20 % 0.3 % 1.1 % -8.7 % Jan/22
Wheat
W 1
472.50 2.50 -0.53 % -0.1 % 0.9 % -12.2 % Jan/22
Rice
RR1
11.00 0.15 1.38 % 2.5 % 0.9 % -1.4 % Jan/22
Canola
RS1
481.80 1.70 -0.35 % -0.6 % -1.2 % 6.9 % Jan/22
Rubber
JN1
160.30 3.70 2.36 % 3.4 % -5.0 % -16.9 % Jan/22
Cocoa
CC1
2855.00 45 1.60 % -0.1 % -10.7 % -3.8 % Jan/21
Orange Juice
JO1
120.70 0.65 0.54 % -7.3 % -17.1 % -17.6 % Jan/21
Coffee
KC1
114.10 1.9 1.69 % -4.2 % -5.1 % -27.0 % Jan/21
Lumber
LB1
239.30 0.90 0.38 % -3.7 % -11.0 % -23.3 % Jan/21
Oat
O 1
204.25 0.5 0.25 % 2.8 % -7.9 % -37.1 % Jan/22
Wool
OL1
1,289.00 6.00 0.47 % 0.6 % 1.9 % 22.7 % Jan/20
Sugar
SB1
14.45 0.25 1.76 % -2.8 % -3.5 % -9.6 % Jan/21
Livestock Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Feeder Cattle
FC1
152.80 0.00 0.00 % 1.3 % -4.3 % -25.9 % Jan/22
Live Cattle
LC1
130.75 2.23 1.74 % 0.0 % 5.0 % -14.5 % Jan/21
Lean Hogs
LH1
68.40 0.00 0.00 % 3.0 % 20.8 % -6.1 % Jan/22
Beef
BEEF
10.21 0.04 -0.39 % -0.1 % 1.8 % 13.6 % Jan/20
Industrial Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Copper
HG1
2.00 0.00 0.05 % 2.8 % -6.0 % -22.6 % Jan/22
Iron Ore
IRONORE
41.10 1.00 -2.38 % 3.8 % 2.2 % -38.2 % Jan/20
Lead
LMPBDS03
1,609.50 25.00 -1.53 % -1.4 % -6.0 % -15.6 % Jan/20
Molybdenum
LMMLDS03
11,750.00 100.00 0.86 % 0.9 % 0.0 % -42.0 % Jan/20
Nickel
LMNIDS03
8,518.00 45.00 -0.53 % -0.3 % -0.9 % -43.1 % Jan/20
Aluminum
LMAHDS03
1,479.50 9.50 0.65 % 0.3 % -4.1 % -20.6 % Jan/21
Tin
LMSNDS03
13,580.00 200.00 1.49 % 2.1 % -7.1 % -30.3 % Jan/21
Zinc
LMZSDS03
1,509.00 26.50 1.79 % 2.8 % -3.0 % -29.3 % Jan/21
Coal
COAL
49.00 0.15 0.31 % -0.4 % -5.9 % -21.4 % Jan/20
Cobalt
COBALT
23,750.00 0.00 0.00 % 0.0 % -2.1 % -23.3 % Jan/20
Steel
STEEL
210.00 0.00 0.00 % 0.0 % 0.0 % -57.1 % Jan/20
Index Actual Change Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Date
Baltic Dry
BALTIC
358.00 5.00 -1.38 % -6.5 % -24.5 % -53.5 % Jan/20
CRB Index
CRB
156.81 3.17 -1.98 % -4.2 % -9.1 % -30.2 % Jan/20
GSCI Index
GSCI
278.04 6.23 2.29 % -3.1 % -8.8 % -29.0 % Jan/21

 

[oyarde]

Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?

What are your plans for dealing with the situation?

Well , just as a precaution , I did close out some accounts and pay off all the debt earlier this yr and am making more arrows , spears and counting shotgun shells.The Tomahawks are already sharp .

 

[idiom]

You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.

That is the entire point of Atlas shrugged. And Animal farm. The pigs are betting on people not quitting.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Another triple digit rise again today- 200 points on the DOW. The end is near.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Well , just as a precaution , I did close out some accounts and pay off all the debt earlier this yr and am making more arrows , spears and counting shotgun shells.The Tomahawks are already sharp .

Out of debt is a good thing.

 

[brandon]

The crash has ended! BUY BUY BUY!!!!

 

[angelatc]

That is the entire point of Atlas shrugged. And Animal farm. The pigs are betting on people not quitting.

I would not be so sure about that. I heard an interview on NPR with a venture capitalist who thought that it would be great for society if the government handed everyone a guaranteed income. That way, people who wanted to stay home and play video games could do that, and the demand for better games would spur the creators at a faster rate than if those fine folks actually had to, you know, work for the money to buy the games.

And Paul Ryan spoke highly of the idea too.

 

[presence]