DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

[helmuth_hubener]

Ten percent is considered a "correction". Off it's high, it is now a "correction" (the first time since 2011).

Correction has been expected for a while. Article from June: http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/04/investing/stock-market-correction-overdue/

Oh yeah, sure, everyone knew a correction was coming. This is very ho-hum, expected; didn't everyone get the memo?

Except for.... you did not seem to get the memo. You did not predict it. You were arguing against the possibility. In fact, in this very thread, where presence predicted a stock downturn, you pooh-poohed his prediction as nonsense.

Now you're going to turn around and try to say "Oh yeah, this dip is no big deal; I knew it was coming, everyone knew it was coming." Right. Sure you did, Peter.

 

[fatjohn]

Oh noes! The dow lost 16000 in the final trading hour!

Edit: Oh noes! The S&P lost 1900 in the final trading hour!

Edit 2: Oh noes! The S&P goes red in the final trading hour!

Edit 3: Oh noes! The Dow goes red in the final trading hour!

Edit 4: Oh noes! Everything comes CRASHING DOWN INTO THE CLOSE! Ahahaahahaaha.

Edit 5: Oh noes! Nasdaq now negative.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Oh yeah, sure, everyone knew a correction was coming. This is very ho-hum, expected; didn't everyone get the memo?

Except for.... you did not seem to get the memo. You did not predict it. You were arguing against the possibility. In fact, in this very thread, where presence predicted a stock downturn, you pooh-poohed his prediction as nonsense.

Now you're going to turn around and try to say "Oh yeah, this dip is no big deal; I knew it was coming, everyone knew it was coming." Right. Sure you did, Peter.

I have said I didn't think a crash was a likely scenario. I never said a correction could not occur. I didn't predict anything.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I have said I didn't think a crash was a likely scenario. I never said a correction could not occur. I didn't predict anything.

Oh, my mistake, where did you say a correction was likely? Where did you say that you expected a correction?

But then after a correction occurs, suddenly it was "expected". Yeah, expected by, oh let's see: Not You.

 

[fatjohn]

Hey zippy show me a correction with the volatility of the last two days that ended in less than a 15% drop.

 

[devil21]

Everyone blamed China's currency move as the trigger that caused the sell-off.
Now everyone's saying China's rate cut has triggered the recovery.

Seems like American economy is vassal of China.

The yuan has been propping up the dollar for years and Chinese interests now quietly own way more US assets than most people realize.

Anybody still playing in this 'market' is going to lose their ass.

 

[devil21]

15666 close. Look out.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Volitility comes from uncertainty. Investors are uncertain what is going on. They are uncertain what the impact of China slowing will be. They are uncertain what the Fed will do with interest rates. Eventually, things will come back to what is really going on now in the economy- and the economy is still growing (though slowly), not collapsing.

I don't have enough stock market history to be able to answer your question.

http://time.com/money/4008743/stock-market-correction-explained/

On Monday, the stock market entered what Wall Street pros term a “correction,” a decline of 10% or more from the market’s previous peak, which occurred in May. No one likes to see their portfolio knocked down a peg, but it’s not the end of the world.

Here are some stats to put recent event into context, and perhaps help you relax a little.

It’s been a surprisingly long time since stocks fell by this much.

The last time the market dropped at least 10% was in October 2011. That’s one of the longest stretches of uninterrupted growth since World War II. So you might say we were due; typically, there’s a market correction every 18 months.

Source: S&P Captal IQ

Most 10% drops don’t lead to bear markets.

Most of the 30-odd corrections the market has endured since 1946 didn’t deteriorate into a bear market, defined as a decline of 20% or more from the previous peak.

Just holding on usually solves the problem.

Usually, but not always, investors who waited out a correction found themselves quickly back in the black.

 

[Madison320]

15666 close. Look out.

The headlines were funny! "All is well again" "Market bounces back" ... "Never mind"

 

[AuH20]

The headlines were funny! "All is well again" "Market bounces back" ... "Never mind"

And this was all predicated on a rate cut. Imagine what the day would have looked without that front-running?

 

[jllundqu]

15666 close. Look out.

BOOGITY! lol

I'd like to hear what folks have to say about home prices. I'm about to buy a home and want to know if I should pull the trigger now while rates are good, or wait for another real estate bubble to potentially pop and grab a house on the slide.

THoughts?

 

[AuH20]

BOOGITY! lol

I'd like to hear what folks have to say about home prices. I'm about to buy a home and want to know if I should pull the trigger now while rates are good, or wait for another real estate bubble to potentially pop and grab a house on the slide.

THoughts?

Housing is distressed right now. Most of the buys are corporate, while emphasizing rental potential.

 

[jllundqu]

Housing is distressed right now. Most of the buys are corporate, while emphasizing rental potential.

Rents are too damn high.

All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.

 

[dannno]

 

[puppetmaster]

Rents are too damn high.

All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.

I own and I sadly think they are heading down I the near future...

 

[devil21]

Rents are too damn high.

All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.

Current deflationary environment would indicate lower prices.

 

[dannno]

Rents are too damn high.

All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.

There really is no telling what they will do, we don't even know what levers they are going to pull or how hard.

I imagine housing prices will crash. In response, they may loosen monetary policy. They may pay you to take out a home loan. This will act to prop prices back up. So there is a chance you may be able to time a good buy in the next 6 months with low rates.

 

[Madison320]

Current deflationary environment would indicate lower prices.

It doesn't make sense to me that you can print all that money and have the monetary unit increase in value. It makes more sense to me that certain assets may fall (stocks for example) but prices in general will rise (from a stoppage in QE). I think the inflation analogy of dropping ink in a bucket of water makes sense. Where it first hits the color is really bright but then it spreads out. The really bright color would be assets that inflation hits first, like the stock market. As the inflation spreads the bright spot fades but the rest gets more color. But the initial bright spot will never get totally clear like it started. So at first inflation will cause asset prices to rise and then fall, but to a level higher than before the inflation started. Retail prices on the other hand will slowly rise the whole time. So the Dow for example would never fall back to 8,000 or whatever it was before QE started.

 

[Acala]

It doesn't make sense to me that you can print all that money and have the monetary unit increase in value. It makes more sense to me that certain assets may fall (stocks for example) but prices in general will rise (from a stoppage in QE). I think the inflation analogy of dropping ink in a bucket of water makes sense. Where it first hits the color is really bright but then it spreads out. The really bright color would be assets that inflation hits first, like the stock market. As the inflation spreads the bright spot fades but the rest gets more color. But the initial bright spot will never get totally clear like it started. So at first inflation will cause asset prices to rise and then fall, but to a level higher than before the inflation started. Retail prices on the other hand will slowly rise the whole time. So the Dow for example would never fall back to 8,000 or whatever it was before QE started.

I think you have to keep in mind where and how the new money is entering the market. Housing is one of the major points of entry for new credit money to enter the market and this is why housing price inflation has usually exceeded general price increases. But it only happens if people are borrowing that money and using it to buy houses. If the housing market is stagnant, the inflationary effect won't hit there. You can't MAKE people buy houses.

 

[Madison320]

And this was all predicated on a rate cut. Imagine what the day would have looked without that front-running?

I'm surprised we haven't heard from the Fed yet. Maybe the big banks are still in pretty good shape. My theory is that the Fed doesn't really give a crap about inflation or the unemployment rate or the economy in general. What they really care about are the banks. At least that's my guess. If the banks start to fail the Fed will launch QE4. Of course if the economy in general starts to tank so will the banks eventually. I'm guessing a crashing stock market is hurting the banks as well.